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Industry brief · Energy & chemicals

Petroleum refining

Refineries separate and convert crude oil into fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet, LPG), feedstocks (naphtha, propylene, aromatics) and specialties (bitumen, lube base oils, petcoke). Profitability is driven by product crack spreads, crude differentials (light/heavy, sweet/sour) and complexity (Nelson index); capex is dominated by conversion units (FCC, hydrocracker, coker) and hydrotreating. In 2026 the Hormuz disruption pushed diesel cracks to records above $100/bbl while the West closes capacity and India, Africa and the Middle East add large integrated refinery-petrochemical complexes.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
10 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%5%10%20%30%Probability →Cost impact →EPC cost escalation & productivity: 45% likely, 20% cost impact, 9 monthsLong-lead heavy-wall reactor & compressor delays: 35% likely, 4% cost impact, 6 monthsInterface: crude pipeline, port, utilities & offsites readiness: 30% likely, 4% cost impact, 5 monthsStart-up incidents & process safety: 25% likely, 3% cost impact, 3 monthsCrude supply disruption / sourcing shift (Hormuz, sanctions): 35% likely, 3% cost impact, 2 monthsCrack spread mean-reversion after 2026 spike: 50% likely, 0% cost impact, 0 monthsFuel-price controls & under-recoveries (India): 40% likely, 0% cost impact, 0 monthsEnergy transition & demand peak (stranded asset risk): 20% likely, 0% cost impact, 0 monthsFinancing cost & FX on imported equipment: 30% likely, 4% cost impact, 0 monthsGas/LNG & power cost for hydrogen and fuel: 30% likely, 2% cost impact, 0 monthsEPC cost escalation &…Long-lead heavy-wall…Interface: crude pipeline,…

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 30 cited sources · 16 parameters · 10 swing factors.

At a glance

32,000Capex intensity · USD per bpd (fuels refinery, greenfield/large expansion)range 12,000–95,000 · sourced
48Construction time · monthsrange 30–96 · sourced
45%Mean cost overrunrange 10%–122% · sourced
40%Mean schedule overrunrange 10%–100% · sourced

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
Hydroskimming / topping refineryCDU + naphtha reforming + hydrotreating, no residue conversion; high fuel-oil yield. Mostly legacy or small inland refineries; closure candidates.8,000–15,000USD per bpdNelson complexity ~2-5; GRM highly exposed to fuel-oil discounts and IMO 2020 HSFO weakness. Capex estimate.
Cracking refinery (FCC / hydrocracker)Adds VGO conversion via fluid catalytic cracking (gasoline + propylene) and/or hydrocracking (middle distillates). Typical medium-complexity configuration.20,000–40,000USD per bpdNCI ~8-11. FCC licensors: UOP, Axens/Technip Energies (R2R), Shell, KBR, Lummus; catalysts Grace, Albemarle/Ketjen, BASF. Hydrocracker: CLG, UOP, Axens, Shell, Topsoe. Capex estimate; brownfield expansions (e.g. IOCL Panipat 15→25 MMTPA) at lower end.
Deep-conversion / coking refineryDelayed coker, residue hydrocracking (LC-Fining, H-Oil, Uniflex, VRDS) or solvent deasphalting for near-zero fuel oil; processes heavy sour crude at wide discounts.30,000–60,000USD per bpd (whole refinery)NCI 12-17 (HRRL NCI 17). Coker licensors: Lummus, ExxonMobil, Foster Wheeler (SYDEC), Bechtel (ThruPlus), UOP/Foster Wheeler. HPCL Visakh residue upgradation achieves ~93% bottoms conversion. Dangote ~$20bn for 650 kbpd (~$31k/bpd incl. port/power). Capex range estimate.
Refinery-petrochemical integration (crude-to-chemicals)Refinery configured to maximise naphtha/LPG/propylene/aromatics to an integrated cracker, PP, PX — petrochemical intensity index (PII) 20-40%+.40,000–95,000USD per bpd (refinery + petchem)HRRL 9 MMTPA + 2.4 Mtpa petchem ₹79,459 cr (~$52k/bpd, PII 26%); BPCL Andhra greenfield ~₹1-1.45 lakh cr (PII target 35%); IOCL Paradip PII >35%; HMEL Bathinda 11.3 MMTPA + 1.2 Mtpa cracker. Detail in petrochemicals config.
Bitumen & lube base oilsVacuum-residue bitumen (paving grade VG-10/30/40, PMB) and Group I/II/III base oils via solvent extraction or hydrocracking + catalytic dewaxing.1,000–2,500USD per tpa base oilIndia imports a large share of bitumen and Group II/III base oils; demand tied to highway build-out and auto. Licensors: Chevron Lummus (Isodewaxing), ExxonMobil (MSDW), Shell; bitumen blowing low-capex. Capex estimate.

Value chain

Inputs

  • crude oil (light/medium/heavy, sweet/sour)
  • condensate
  • natural gas / LNG (fuel & hydrogen)
  • catalysts & chemicals
  • power & water
  • imported VGO / resid (opportunity feeds)

Process

  • crude & vacuum distillation (CDU/VDU)
  • naphtha hydrotreating & catalytic reforming
  • isomerisation / alkylation
  • diesel & kerosene hydrotreating (DHDT)
  • FCC / PFCC / INDMAX
  • hydrocracking
  • delayed coking / residue hydrocracking
  • hydrogen generation (SMR) & sulphur recovery
  • blending, tankage, dispatch (pipeline, rail, marine)

Outputs

  • gasoline (BS-VI / Euro 6)
  • diesel / gasoil
  • jet fuel / ATF
  • LPG
  • naphtha
  • propylene & aromatics feed
  • fuel oil / bunker (VLSFO)
  • bitumen
  • lube base oils
  • petcoke & sulphur

Parameters

16 parameters: 12 sourced, 4 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensity(fuels refinery, greenfield/large expansion)Dangote ~$20bn/650 kbpd ≈ $31k/bpd; NRL 3→9 MMTPA ₹33,901 cr incl. 1,635 km crude pipeline ≈ $33k/bpd added; HRRL ≈ $52k/bpd incl. petchem; Dos Bocas ~$20bn/340 kbpd ≈ $59k/bpd; BPCL Andhra (₹1.45 lakh cr) at the top.32,000 USD per bpdrange 12,000–95,000sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026dabafinance.com
Construction monthsBrownfield expansions 36-48 months; greenfield 48-96 (HRRL foundation 2018 → COD Jun-2026).48 monthsrange 30–96sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026psuwatch.com
Cost overrun meanNRL ₹22,594 cr (2019) → ₹33,901 cr (+50%); HRRL ₹43,129 → ₹79,459 cr (+84%); Dos Bocas $8.9bn → ~$20bn (+122%). Mean estimate.45%range 10%–122%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026northeasttoday.in
Schedule overrun meanHRRL ~4 yrs late vs 2022 target; NRL targeted Dec-2026. Mean estimate.40%range 10%–100%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026theprint.in
Asset life (years)35 yearsrange 25–50estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
WACC(nominal, local currency)US Oil/Gas Integrated WACC 5.07% (Damodaran Jan-2026); India INR ~10-11% (estimate).8.5%range 5%–12%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026pages.stern.nyu.edu
Typical IRR(project, post-tax)Indian PSU appraisal hurdle ~12% post-tax (estimate).12%range 8%–16%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
UtilizationUS running >97% in Sep-2026; India often >100% of nameplate.92%range 80%–105%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026stillwaterassociates.com
Opex % of revenue(incl. crude)92%range 85%–97%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
EBITDA marginReliance O2C Q1 FY27 EBITDA ₹17,010 cr on ₹201,803 cr revenue ≈ 8.4%.7%range 2%–15%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026alchempro.com
GRM (USD/bbl)IOCL Q3 FY26 $8.41, BPCL $13.25.8 USD/bblrange 3–20sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026thecore.in
Nelson complexityHRRL 17 vs global average 8-10.10 indexrange 3–17sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026theprint.in
Cash opex (USD/bbl)3 USD/bblrange 2–5estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Refinery scale kbpdHMEL 11.3 MMTPA ≈ 226 kbpd; Dangote 650 kbpd; Jamnagar 1,360 kbpd.220 kbpdrange 60–650sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026en.wikipedia.org
India refining capacity MMTPA(FY25)23 refineries; 309.5 MMTPA targeted by 2030; 400-450 long-term.258.1 MMTPArange 258.1–309.5sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026theprint.in
Petchem intensity India13%range 7.7%–35%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026thecore.in

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
EPC cost escalation & productivityLabour Shared factors: Labour 0.5 · Steel 0.2 · Construction materials 0.2 · Copper 0.1Watch: revised cost estimates (NRL +50%, HRRL +84%); craft labour availability; LSTK vs cost-plus contracting; monsoon days lost
45%
20%
9 mo
Long-lead heavy-wall reactor & compressor delaysSupply chain Shared factors: Steel 0.5 · Electrical equipment 0.3 · Labour 0.2Watch: heat exchanger/boiler PPI; forging capacity (JSW, L&T, JSW Japan); OEM backlog; steel plate prices
35%
4%
6 mo
Interface: crude pipeline, port, utilities & offsites readinessInterface Shared factors: Steel 0.3 · Labour 0.3 · Policy 0.2 · Electrical equipment 0.2Watch: pipeline RoW progress; SPM/port commissioning; captive power/H2 unit status
30%
4%
5 mo
Financing cost & FX on imported equipmentFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.8 · Policy 0.2Watch: G-sec/UST yields; INR/USD; bank sector limits to oil & gas
30%
4%
0 mo
Crude supply disruption / sourcing shift (Hormuz, sanctions)Geopolitical Shared factors: Oil 0.7 · Policy 0.3Watch: Hormuz transit volumes; Brent-Dubai & Brent-WTI spreads; freight & war-risk insurance; OFAC/EU sanctions on Russian/Venezuelan/Iranian crude
35%
3%
2 mo
Start-up incidents & process safetyTechnical Shared factors: Labour 0.6 · Electrical equipment 0.4Watch: pre-start-up safety review findings; HRRL fire Apr-2026 / Dos Bocas incidents; PSM audit scores
25%
3%
3 mo
Gas/LNG & power cost for hydrogen and fuelCommodity Shared factors: Gas 0.7 · Power price 0.3Watch: Asia LNG; Qatar force majeure; pooled gas price
30%
2%
0 mo
Crack spread mean-reversion after 2026 spikeMarket Shared factors: Oil 0.8 · Policy 0.2Watch: distillate inventories (EIA); heating-oil futures backwardation; new capacity start-ups (Dangote 1.4 mbpd, NRL, Panipat); US–Iran peace deal progress
50%
0%
0 mo
Fuel-price controls & under-recoveries (India)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.7 · Oil 0.3Watch: retail price freezes; excise duty changes; LPG compensation; windfall export taxes (SAED)
40%
0%
0 mo
Energy transition & demand peak (stranded asset risk)ESG Shared factors: Policy 0.6 · Oil 0.2 · Interest rates 0.2Watch: EV penetration; ethanol blending (E20→E27/E30); EU ETS/CBAM scope; global closure lists (~20% of refineries at risk by 2035)
20%
0%
0 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
Brent crudeCrude is ~85-90% of refinery cost; price swings drive inventory gains/losses for Indian OMCs (FIFO) and fuel-price-control under-recoveries. Brent $67 (Jan-2026) → $117 (Apr) → ~$114 (29-Sep-2026).60–120USD/bblFeedstock cost, Working capital, Inventory gains
Brent–Dubai (light-sweet vs medium-sour) spreadWider spread favours complex refiners running sour crude (India, ME); July-2026 Dubai $77.1 vs Brent $83.7 (World Bank monthly).−2–8USD/bblFeedstock cost, Margin
Brent–WTI spreadWidened to ~$12-18 in Sep-2026, boosting US Gulf Coast refiner margins vs Asian/European peers.2–18USD/bblFeedstock cost
Diesel / gasoil crackLargest margin driver for Indian refiners (diesel ~40-45% of yield). US diesel crack record >$106/bbl on 1-Sep-2026; RIL gasoil cracks +299% YoY in Q1 FY27.15–110USD/bblRevenue, Margin
Gasoline crackSeasonal (US driving season); India gasoline demand growing faster than diesel.5–35USD/bblRevenue, Margin
Jet / kerosene crackDangote became Europe's largest jet supplier in Jun-Jul 2026 as ME exports were disrupted.10–60USD/bblRevenue
3-2-1 crack spread (proxy GRM)Composite (2 gasoline + 1 diesel − 3 crude)/3; each $1/bbl on a 220 kbpd refinery ≈ $75-80m/yr EBITDA.8–60USD/bblMargin
Gross refining margin (Singapore complex / company GRM)IOCL Q3 FY26 GRM $8.41/bbl, BPCL $13.25 (vs $3.69/$5.60 a year earlier); Asia margins hit a ~4-year high in Mar-2026.3–20USD/bblMargin
Show 5 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
High-sulphur fuel oil discount to crudePenalises hydroskimming; rewards cokers. Estimate range.−25–0USD/bblMargin
Natural gas / LNG (refinery fuel & hydrogen)Gas ~10-20% of refinery opex for hydrogen & fuel; Indian refiners exposed to spot LNG after Qatar force majeure.3–25USD/MMBtuOpex
Refinery utilisationUS >97% in Sep-2026; Indian PSU refiners often run >100% of nameplate.75%–105%Volume
Bitumen / asphalt priceSeasonal with road-building; India priced off fortnightly OMC lists.200–350indexRevenue
Cost of debt / project financePSU refinery projects typically 70:30 debt:equity (e.g. NRL with 12-bank SBI consortium).6%–12%Capex financing

Price feeds (23)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Brent crudeDCOILBRENTEUFREDUSD/bbldaily
WTI crudeDCOILWTICOFREDUSD/bbldaily
Dubai crude (World Bank)POILDUBUSDMFREDUSD/bblmonthly
Conventional gasoline, US Gulf CoastDGASUSGULFFREDUSD/galdaily
Ultra-low-sulphur diesel, US Gulf CoastDDFUELUSGULFFREDUSD/galdaily
Kerosene-type jet fuel, US Gulf CoastDJFUELUSGULFFREDUSD/galdaily
No.2 heating oil, New York HarborDHOILNYHFREDUSD/galdaily
US regular gasoline retailGASREGWFREDUSD/galweekly
Show 15 more feeds
SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Asia LNG (Japan, World Bank)PNGASJPUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
Henry Hub natural gasDHHNGSPFREDUSD/MMBtudaily
PPI: petroleum refineriesPCU324110324110FREDindexmonthly
PPI: asphaltWPU058102FREDindexmonthly
PPI: lubricating oil base stocksWPU057801FREDindexmonthly
US capacity utilisation: petroleum & coal productsCAPUTLG324SFREDpercentmonthly
PPI: steel pipe & tube (capex input)WPU101706FREDindexmonthly
PPI: power boilers & heat exchangers (capex input)PCU332410332410FREDindexmonthly
Brent futuresBZ=FYahooUSD/bbldaily
WTI futuresCL=FYahooUSD/bbldaily
RBOB gasoline futuresRB=FYahooUSD/galdaily
NY Harbor ULSD (heating oil) futuresHO=FYahooUSD/galdaily
3-2-1 crack spread (derived)DERIVED: (2×42×RB=F + 1×42×HO=F − 3×CL=F)/3otherUSD/bbldaily
Singapore complex refining margin (Reuters/Platts, licensed)SG_COMPLEX_GRMotherUSD/bblweekly
Indian crude basket (PPAC)PPAC_INDIAN_BASKETotherUSD/bbldaily

Listed tickers (37)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 22

  • RELIANCE.NS Reliance Industries (Jamnagar) NSE · IN
  • IOC.NS Indian Oil Corporation NSE · IN
  • BPCL.NS Bharat Petroleum NSE · IN
  • HINDPETRO.NS Hindustan Petroleum (HMEL, HRRL parent) NSE · IN
  • MRPL.NS Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals NSE · IN
  • CHENNPETRO.NS Chennai Petroleum NSE · IN
  • VLO Valero Energy NYSE · US
  • MPC Marathon Petroleum NYSE · US
  • PSX Phillips 66 NYSE · US
  • PBF PBF Energy NYSE · US
  • DINO HF Sinclair NYSE · US
  • DK Delek US NYSE · US
  • NESTE.HE Neste Nasdaq Helsinki · EU
  • OMV.VI OMV Wiener Börse · EU
  • REP.MC Repsol BME · EU
  • GALP.LS Galp Energia Euronext Lisbon · EU
  • MOH.AT Motor Oil Hellas Athens · EU
  • ELPE.AT HELLENiQ ENERGY Athens · EU
  • PKN.WA Orlen GPW · EU
  • 2222.SR Saudi Aramco (downstream JVs incl. India) Tadawul · ME
  • 010950.KS S-Oil KRX · APAC
  • 5020.T ENEOS Holdings TSE · APAC

Suppliers · 13

  • ENGINERSIN.NS Engineers India Ltd NSE · IN
  • LT.NS Larsen & Toubro NSE · IN
  • BHEL.NS BHEL (heaters, exchangers, rotating equipment) NSE · IN
  • THERMAX.NS Thermax (boilers, utilities) NSE · IN
  • HON Honeywell (UOP licensor & catalysts) NASDAQ · US
  • ALB Albemarle (Ketjen FCC/HPC catalysts) NYSE · US
  • KBR KBR (technology & EPC) NYSE · US
  • FLR Fluor (EPC) NYSE · US
  • TE.PA Technip Energies (licensor & EPC) Euronext Paris · EU
  • SPM.MI Saipem (EPC) Borsa Italiana · EU
  • MAIRE.MI Maire (Tecnimont EPC) Borsa Italiana · EU
  • 028050.KS Samsung E&A (EPC) KRX · APAC
  • 6330.T Toyo Engineering (EPC) TSE · APAC

Consumers · 2

  • CASTROLIND.NS Castrol India (lube base oil buyer) NSE · IN
  • GULFOILLUB.NS Gulf Oil Lubricants India NSE · IN

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • GRM (USD/bbl) vs Singapore benchmark
  • Crude throughput (MMT) & utilisation (%)
  • Distillate yield (%)
  • Light & middle distillate yield (%)
  • Fuel & loss (%)
  • Energy intensity index (Solomon EII)
  • Nelson complexity
  • Cash opex (USD/bbl)
  • Crude cost differential vs benchmark (USD/bbl)
  • Inventory gain/loss
  • Petrochemical intensity index (%)
  • Mechanical availability (%)
  • Project CPI/SPI

Regional notes

India258.1 MMTPA (FY25) across 23 refineries, world #4; ~88% crude import dependence; 309.5 MMTPA by 2030. PSU refiners exposed to retail price controls and inventory swings; strong GRMs ($8-13/bbl Q3 FY26) then 2026 shock. Key projects: HRRL (done 2026), NRL 9 MMTPA (Dec-2026), Panipat 25 MMTPA, Koyali 18 MMTPA, Barauni 9 MMTPA, CPCL Nagapattinam, BPCL Andhra greenfield. HMEL Bathinda (11.3 MMTPA, inland Punjab) relies on 1,017 km Mundra pipeline — crude sourcing flexibility (US, Guyana, Venezuela) matters post-Hormuz.
United States18.2 mb/cd operable capacity (Jan-2026), shrinking (Houston, LA, Benicia closures); Gulf Coast advantaged by WTI discount to Brent (~$12-18) and record diesel cracks; policy risk from potential diesel export ban; West Coast supply fragility.
EuropeHigh energy/ETS costs drive closures and biorefinery conversions; reliant on imported diesel/jet (ME, India, Dangote, US); 2026 cracks lifted EU refiner equities; G7 diesel stock release Oct-2026.
Middle EastAl-Zour, Jazan, Ruwais export refineries; Hormuz disruption stranded Gulf product exports; Saudi Petroline to Yanbu/Red Sea partially bypasses.
AfricaDangote reshapes West African and Atlantic Basin product flows.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 17

  • Reliance Industries Mumbai · INJamnagar ~1.36 mbpd, world's largest refining complex; NCI ~21; export-oriented; O2C Q1 FY27 revenue ₹201,803 cr.
  • Indian Oil Corporation New Delhi · IN~80+ MMTPA across 9 refineries; Panipat 15→25 MMTPA and Gujarat (Koyali) expansions; Barauni +3 MMTPA; ~$4bn capex FY26.
  • Bharat Petroleum Mumbai · INMumbai, Kochi, Bina; Bina 7.8→11 MMTPA with cracker; Andhra Pradesh (Ramayapatnam) greenfield refinery-petchem ~₹1-1.45 lakh cr with OIL; Aramco minority stake mooted.
  • Hindustan Petroleum Mumbai · INVisakh 15 MMTPA (residue upgradation, 93% bottoms conversion), Mumbai 9.5 MMTPA (CLG hydrocracker licence), HRRL Barmer 9 MMTPA (COD Jun-2026).
  • HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) Noida / Bathinda · INGuru Gobind Singh Refinery 11.3 MMTPA, inland, fed via 1,017 km Mundra pipeline + SPM; integrated with 1.2 Mtpa cracker; small (~10 kbpd) debottleneck planned Dec-2025; halted Russian crude Oct-2025, bought Venezuelan crude 2026.
  • Nayara Energy Mumbai / Vadinar · IN20 MMTPA Vadinar; Rosneft 49%; EU sanctions exposure.
  • Numaligarh Refinery Ltd Assam · IN3→9 MMTPA expansion, cost ₹33,901 cr (from ₹22,594 cr), ~85% complete, target Dec-2026; 360 ktpa PP project ₹7,231 cr.
  • MRPL / CPCL Mangalore / Chennai · INPSU subsidiaries; CPCL Nagapattinam 9 MMTPA greenfield (with IOCL).
  • Dangote Petroleum Refinery Lagos · AF650 kbpd single train (~$20bn); full capacity Feb-2026; expansion to 1.4 mbpd planned; Europe's largest jet supplier Jun-Jul 2026; IPO 2026.
  • Marathon Petroleum Findlay, OH · USLargest US refiner (~3 mbpd).
  • Valero Energy San Antonio, TX · US~3.2 mbpd; closed 145 kbpd Benicia (2026).
  • Phillips 66 Houston · USClosed 139 kbpd Los Angeles refinery Oct-2025.
  • ExxonMobil Spring, TX · USBaytown/Beaumont (Beaumont +250 kbpd expansion 2023).
  • Shell / BP / TotalEnergies (EU downstream) London / Paris · EURationalising EU sites (Wesseling, Gelsenkirchen, Grandpuits conversion); biorefinery conversions.
  • Orlen, OMV, Repsol, MOH, HELLENiQ Warsaw / Vienna / Madrid / Athens · EUEU independents; windfall from 2026 diesel cracks (EU oil stocks up to +87% in 2026).
  • Saudi Aramco / ADNOC / KNPC Dhahran / Abu Dhabi / Kuwait · MEAl-Zour, Jazan, Ruwais mega-refineries; Gulf product exports disrupted by Hormuz 2026; Saudi Red Sea outlets via Petroline.
  • Pemex (Olmeca/Dos Bocas) Mexico City · LATAM340 kbpd; cost ~$20bn vs $8.9bn; repeated safety incidents in 2026.

Suppliers · 16

  • Honeywell UOP Licensor · USCCR Platforming, FCC, Unicracking, Penex, catalysts — most-licensed refining portfolio.
  • Axens (IFPEN) Licensor · EUHydrotreating/hydrocracking, H-Oil residue hydrocracking, R2R FCC (with Technip Energies), catalysts.
  • Chevron Lummus Global (CLG) Licensor · USIsocracking, LC-Fining, Isodewaxing lube base oils; HPCL Mumbai hydrocracker licence.
  • Lummus Technology Licensor · USDelayed coking, alkylation (CDAlky), heaters.
  • Shell Catalysts & Technologies Licensor · EUHydroprocessing catalysts and residue technologies.
  • ExxonMobil Catalysts & Licensing Licensor · USCoking (FLEXICOKING), MSDW lube dewaxing, ULSD.
  • Topsoe Catalyst · EUHydrotreating catalysts, hydrogen (SMR) technology.
  • W. R. Grace / Ketjen (Albemarle) / BASF Catalyst · USFCC & hydroprocessing catalysts.
  • Engineers India Ltd (EIL) EPC · INPMC/EPCM and in-house process design for most Indian PSU refinery projects.
  • Larsen & Toubro (Energy Hydrocarbon; Heavy Engineering) EPC · INEPC + heavy-wall hydrocracker/coker reactors and modular fabrication.
  • Tata Projects EPC · INRefinery unit EPC packages for PSUs.
  • Technip Energies EPC · EUTwo large BPCL contracts (Bina, Mumbai) Jan-2026; FCC/hydrogen technology.
  • Saipem / Maire Tecnimont / Samsung E&A / Hyundai E&C / Toyo EPC · EUInternational LSTK EPCs active in India/ME refinery packages.
  • Godrej & Boyce / L&T Heavy / Japan Steel Works OEM · INHeavy-wall reactors (hydrocracker, residue) — 18-24 month long-lead.
  • Siemens Energy / Elliott (Ebara) / MHI / BHEL OEM · EURecycle & wet-gas compressors, steam turbines, FCC air blowers.
  • Emerson / Honeywell / Yokogawa / AVEVA Software · USDCS, APC, digital twins (HMEL MoUs with Emerson & AVEVA, 2025).

Customers · 8

  • Fuel retail & OMC marketing transport fuelsPetrol/diesel retail; India retail prices administratively held in 2026 → under-recoveries.
  • Airlines aviationJet/ATF; jet cracks spiked with ME export loss.
  • Petrochemical crackers chemicalsNaphtha, LPG, propylene, aromatics feed.
  • Road builders (NHAI/state PWDs) infrastructureBitumen VG grades / PMB.
  • Lubricant blenders industrial & autoGroup I/II/III base oils.
  • Shipping (bunkers) marineVLSFO/HSFO.
  • LPG households (PMUY) residentialIndia LPG supply crunch Mar-2026.
  • Power, cement & steel (petcoke, fuel oil) industrialPetcoke in cement kilns.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
R100Configuration study, crude assay & market/product slate (LP model)Develop · factors: Oil, Policy6%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
R200Technology licensing & basic design packages (hydrocracker, coker/FCC, reformer, SRU)Develop · factors: Policy7%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
R300Environmental clearance, land, crude/product pipeline RoW & port approvalsDevelop · factors: Policy, Labour14%0.85 / 1 / 1.9
R400FEED, cost estimate, EPC/LSTK tendering & board/PIB approval (FID)Engineer · EPC · factors: Interest rates, Policy12%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
R500Detailed engineeringEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour22%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
R600Long-lead procurement: heavy-wall reactors, coke drums, recycle/wet-gas compressors, fired heaters, FCC regeneratorProcure · OEM · factors: Steel, Electrical equipment, Labour30%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
R700Module / pipe-rack fabrication & ODC transportProcure · EPC · factors: Steel, Labour, Oil18%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
R800Site grading, piling, foundations & civilConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Labour18%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
R900Mechanical erection: process units, piping, E&IConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel, Copper, Electrical equipment35%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
R1000Offsites & utilities: tankage, captive power, hydrogen unit, SRU, flare, crude pipeline/SPMConstruct · EPC · factors: Steel, Electrical equipment, Labour22%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
R1100Pre-commissioning: flushing, hydro-tests, heater dry-out, catalyst loadingCommission · EPC · factors: Labour7%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
R1200Commissioning: crude-in, unit-by-unit start-up, PSSRCommission · factors: Labour, Oil5%0.9 / 1 / 1.8
R1300Performance guarantee test runs & ramp-up to design throughput/yieldsCommission · factors: Oil, Labour10%0.9 / 1 / 1.7

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Construction & installation labour20%
    Labour
    • Labour 100%
  • Bulks: piping, structural steel, valves, E&I, cables18%
    Construction
    • Steel 50%
    • Copper 20%
  • Heavy-wall reactors, coke drums & static equipment16%
    Equipment
    • Steel 80%
  • Fired heaters, compressors & rotating equipment13%
    Equipment
    • Steel 40%
    • Electrical equipment 40%
  • Owner's costs, land, catalysts, first fill8%
    Develop
  • Civil works, tankage & buildings7%
    Construction
    • Construction materials 60%
    • Steel 30%
  • Pre-commissioning, commissioning & start-up7%
    Commissioning
    • Labour 50%
    • Oil 20%
  • Detailed engineering6%
    Engineering
    • Labour 80%
  • Licences, basic engineering & PMC5%
    Engineering

Financial template

Revenue model

Sale of refined products at trade/import-parity prices (India: OMC refinery-gate pricing at import parity for most products; retail controlled in shocks); margin = product slate value − crude & freight − fuel & loss, i.e. GRM per barrel × throughput.

Margin driver

Gross refining margin (Singapore complex / company GRM)

Ramp-up

1 year to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a petroleum refining decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 16 parameters, 10 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are labour, steel, construction materials and electrical equipment. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 23 price feeds and 37 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Labour
  • Steel
  • Construction materials
  • Electrical equipment
  • Copper
  • Policy
  • Oil
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Steel29.1%
  • Labour28.3%
  • Electrical equipment5.2%
  • Construction materials4.2%
  • Copper3.6%
  • Oil1.4%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. theprint.inhttps://theprint.in/economy/modi-inaugurates-rajasthan-refinery-why-indias-first-greenfield-plant-in-a-decade-matters/2977443/
  2. thecore.inhttps://www.thecore.in/business/the-petrochemical-pivot-indias-refineries-are-learning-to-stop-burning-and-start-building-858731
  3. northeasttoday.inhttps://northeasttoday.in/northeast/assam/assam-nrl-submits-revised-%E2%82%B933901-crore-investment-proposal-for-northeasts-largest-refinery-upgrade/
  4. dabafinance.comhttps://dabafinance.com/en/insights/inside-the-dangote-refinery-the-worlds-largest-single-train-plant-2
  5. mexiconewsdaily.comhttps://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/amlo-defends-refinerys-cost-overrun/
  6. eia.govhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67807
  7. ttnews.comhttps://www.ttnews.com/articles/diesel-crack-spread-record
  8. stillwaterassociates.comhttps://stillwaterassociates.com/low-tanks-high-margins-why-product-cracks-are-at-records-and-how-long-they-are-likely-to-last/
  9. blogs.worldbank.orghttps://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging
  10. woodmac.comhttps://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/strait-of-hormuz-closure-risks-greatest-global-energy-supply-shock-in-decades/
  11. alchempro.comhttps://www.alchempro.com/industry-article/11673/dow-reliance-o2c-and-basf-how-chemical-products-performed-in-q2
  12. chemicals.economictimes.indiatimes.comhttps://chemicals.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry-and-market/bpcls-andhra-pradesh-refinery-plan-nears-1-45-lakh-crore-as-land-and-clearances-move-ahead/134328182
  13. thehindubusinessline.comhttps://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/bpcl-oil-sign-pact-to-build-1-lakh-crore-ramayapatnam-greenfield-refinery/article70211859.ece
  14. business-standard.comhttps://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/indian-oil-to-complete-panipat-gujarat-refinery-expansions-by-december-125060201155_1.html
  15. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HPCL-Mittal_Energy_Limited
  16. psuwatch.comhttps://psuwatch.com/newsupdates/hmel-to-invest-rs-2600-crore-at-bathinda-refinery-for-polypropylene-downstream-fine-chemical-projects
  17. psuwatch.comhttps://psuwatch.com/newsupdates/hpcl-declares-rajasthan-pachpadra-refinery-commercially-operational-days-ahead-of-july-1-target
  18. hydrocarbonengineering.comhttps://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/25092026/wood-mackenzie-us-diesel-export-ban-would-trigger-global-stock-drawdowns-cut-us-refinery-utilisation-and-risk-driving-gasoline-prices-higher/
  19. oilprice.comhttps://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asias-Refining-Margins-Soar-to-4-Year-High-as-Hormuz-Chokes-Crude-Supply.html
  20. euronews.comhttps://www.euronews.com/2026/09/24/europes-fuel-crisis-these-10-oil-stocks-soared-as-much-as-87-in-2026
  21. pages.stern.nyu.eduhttps://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/wacc.html
  22. pages.stern.nyu.eduhttps://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html
  23. ppac.gov.inhttps://ppac.gov.in/infrastructure/installed-refinery-capacity
  24. ppac.gov.inhttps://ppac.gov.in/prices/international-prices-of-crude-oil
  25. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2025
  26. indianchemicalnews.comhttps://www.indianchemicalnews.com/technology/hpcl-awards-licensing-contract-to-clg-for-hydrocracker-unit-at-mumbai-refinery-20342
  27. investors.technipenergies.comhttp://investors.technipenergies.com/news-releases/news-release-details/technip-energies-awarded-two-large-contracts-bpcl-new-units-bina
  28. forbes.comhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2026/09/23/why-profitable-refiners-close-refineries/
  29. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILDUBUSDM
  30. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDFUELUSGULF

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