Projects at FID
Each option and size arrives with its capex, schedule and NPV range, and the value of deferring, staging or abandoning.
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- Capital committee
Capital committee
Every claim on capital, on one envelope.
The capital committee places every candidate from the four decisions on one envelope and one risk appetite, then solves the whole book for the most value inside it. Members see the pooled plan beside today's separate plans, the shock that would break it, and what would change the answer.
Illustrative example, not client data. In the coastal refiner example, whose figures are invented for illustration, the pooled plan delivers $865M of value after hurdles against $812M for the separate plans, with a bad-year value (P10: nine scenarios in ten do better) of $540M against $497M, using $45M less capital.
Four decisions, one committee
The same money, the same drivers, one table
Building plants, backing ventures, recovering projects in construction and funding this year's capex lines all draw on one balance sheet and the same shocks. Each decision brings its candidates to the committee in the same form: a P50, P80 and P90 range from the same correlated scenarios.
01 · Evaluate
02 · Invest
Tickets and reserves
Ticket sizes inside concentration limits, with the value from strategic synergy kept separate from the financial return.
03 · Execute
Recovery options
P80 cost and finish updated from actuals, and each recovery option priced in money before anyone commits to it.
04 · Capex
Sustaining lines
A hundred or more small projects fitted to the envelope, crew capacity and turnaround windows, with the cost of every deferral.
The committee pack
What members see before they vote
A recommendation the committee cannot question is not much use. Every figure in the pack traces back to a file, a parameter or a run, and the alternatives sit beside the recommended plan.
Pooled plan beside today's plans
The pooled plan is shown next to the separate plans each budget holder would have made, on the same money and the same scenarios, so the gain from pooling is visible rather than asserted.
The bad year, in money
The bad year is the average outcome in the worst 5% of scenarios. The committee chooses how much of it to accept, and the book is solved for the highest expected value within that appetite.
Stress and reverse stress
Stress tests sit beside the plan, along with the reverse stress test: the smallest shock that breaks the plan and its estimated return period.
What would change our mind
The thresholds that would flip the recommendation are stated in advance, on factors with live data, so they can become tripwires once the decision is made.
Alternatives, including none
Staging, a smaller tranche, deferral and releasing the capital are all on the table. The committee can choose any feasible alternative, and the record keeps the ones it did not choose.
Model risk, disclosed
The pack says how well the ranges have held in back-tests and which inputs are labelled estimates, so members know how much weight the numbers can bear.
From files to decision
The capital decision journey
How Capibud carries a book of options from the files your teams already produce to an approved decision that replays. Eight stages; drag across the stage to scrub.
Try it
Every claim on the envelope, sized and stress-tested in one book
Switch the stress scenario to re-price the book, and select a claim to read its verdict, outcome band and the factors behind it.
Capital used
$520M
Value after hurdles
$1,180M
Bad-year value
$815M
Stress scenario
Capital claims 4 rows · click to inspect
| Claim | Decision | Budget | P50 return | Bad year(P10 return) | Verdict |
|---|
Illustrative figures, not client data.
Decision readout
← Polypropylene unit
0
Decision score
Fund
Outcome band (P10 → P90): →
Confidence0%
Why pool the decisions
One book beats four ranked lists
When each budget holder ranks their own projects and funds down the list, the money runs out pot by pot and nobody sees that three projects share one supplier. Pooling places every candidate on one envelope, so capital goes where it earns the most for the risk it adds to the whole book.
$865MValue after hurdles for the pooled plan, against $812M for the separate plans.
$540MBad-year value (P10: nine scenarios in ten do better) for the pooled plan, against $497M for the separate plans.
$45MLess capital used by the pooled plan to get there.
Illustrative example — figures invented for illustration; not a client or a Capibud demo. Both plans are scored on the same shared scenarios in the coastal refiner example.
In the room
How a committee decision runs
The committee keeps its judgement. Capibud makes sure that judgement is exercised on the whole book, against the bad year, and written down in a form that can be checked later.
1FrameSet the envelope and the risk appetite: how much of the bad year the committee is prepared to accept.
2CompareRead the pooled plan beside today's separate plans, with the alternatives and the stress tests alongside.
3ChallengeAsk what breaks the plan. The reverse stress test gives the smallest shock that does, and the thresholds that would change the recommendation.
4VoteMembers vote independently: approve, approve with conditions, disagree and commit, reject or abstain. Dissent is kept with its reasoning.
5ArmTripwires are set on the thresholds that would reopen the decision. The brain checks them against live data on every scan.
6RouteThe approved plan is routed by your delegation of authority with maker-checker, applied by the final approval and written to the record.
Around the table
Built for the people who sign
Capital decisions have many readers and few builders. Each seat at the table gets the view it needs from the same run.
CFO and capital committee
One envelope, one appetite
- The whole book sized against the bad year, not a stack of budget requests.
- The pooled plan beside today's plans, with the capital each one uses.
- A record of who decided what, on which run, with which dissent.
Corporate planning and project development
Evaluate
- P10, P50 and P80 capex, schedule and NPV for each option and size.
- The value of deferring, staging or abandoning, priced rather than argued.
- Stage-gate packs routed for approval without re-keying.
Project controls and PMOs
Execute
- P80 cost and finish for each unit, updated from actuals.
- Recovery options priced in money and previewed before commitment.
- Change orders routed by your authority matrix.
Investment committees
Invest
- Ticket sizes and reserves within concentration limits.
- Stage-by-stage survival and exit distributions.
- Investment committee memos routed by ticket size.
Questions committees ask
Before the first meeting
More on how decisions are kept and replayed is on the decision record page, and on how tripwires are watched on the brain.
Can the committee overrule the recommendation?
Yes. The committee can record any feasible alternative as its decision. The record keeps the recommended plan, the alternatives and the run the committee relied on, so the choice can be explained later.
What exactly is "the bad year"?
The average outcome in the worst 5% of scenarios (CVaR at 5%). The committee chooses how much of it to accept, and the book is solved for the highest expected value within that appetite.
Does AI make the recommendation?
No. The simulation and optimisation engines produce every number. Language models are optional; any number they write must match the recorded run exactly or the text is rejected. Capibud works with the AI layer switched off.
How long does a run take?
A seven-project book with 4,000 correlated scenarios and its optimiser runs in about 0.8 seconds, so the committee can ask "what if" in the meeting rather than after it.
Do we have to replace our planning tools?
No. Capibud sits above Primavera, SAP and your planning tool and reads the files they already produce. Capibud works with what P6, MS Project and your ERP export today (XER, XML, Excel); native connectors are rolling out. See the platform.
How do we start?
With a Decision Sprint: one real decision on your own files in six weeks, such as a sanction, an annual capex allocation, a fund deployment or a recovery plan. You receive an executive readout and a decision memo.
Bring your next capital round.
A Decision Sprint runs one real decision on your own files in six weeks, with success criteria agreed before work starts.