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Industry brief · Energy & chemicals

LNGliquefaction & regasification

Liquefied natural gas value chain infrastructure: export liquefaction trains (large-scale onshore, mid-scale/modular, floating) and import infrastructure (onshore regasification terminals and FSRUs). Projects are multi-billion-dollar, 4–6 year megaprojects underwritten by 15–20 year SPAs/tolling contracts. In 2025 a record 68.4 Mtpa reached FID globally (six US FIDs), while the 2026 Iran war/Strait of Hormuz disruption knocked ~17% of Qatar's capacity out for ~3 years and pushed QatarEnergy force majeure into late 2026, re-pricing security-of-supply capex in India, the EU and Asia.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
11 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%5%10%20%30%Probability →Cost impact →EPC cost escalation and contractor distress on lump-sum contracts: 30% likely, 20% cost impact, 12 monthsUS export permitting & litigation (DOE non-FTA, FERC, court vacatur): 25% likely, 4% cost impact, 12 monthsLong-lead cryogenic & rotating equipment bottleneck (MCHE, refrigerant compressors, gas turbines): 35% likely, 6% cost impact, 9 monthsMiddle East supply disruption / Hormuz closure & Qatar force majeure: 50% likely, 5% cost impact, 6 monthsGulf Coast craft labor shortage from concurrent megaprojects: 45% likely, 10% cost impact, 6 monthsFeed-gas pipeline and power interconnection interface delays (incl. e-drive trains): 25% likely, 3% cost impact, 6 monthsHurricane / extreme weather damage during Gulf Coast construction: 15% likely, 3% cost impact, 3 monthsPost-2028 supply wave depresses spot spreads and SPA pricing: 35% likely, 0% cost impact, 0 monthsInterest-rate and project-finance cost increase: 30% likely, 5% cost impact, 0 monthsIndia regas under-utilisation & demand destruction at high spot prices: 45% likely, 0% cost impact, 0 monthsEU policy shift: Russian LNG ban, methane-import rules and falling gas demand strand FSRUs: 30% likely, 0% cost impact, 0 monthsEPC cost escalation and…Gulf Coast craft labor…Middle East supply…

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 28 cited sources · 17 parameters · 11 swing factors.

At a glance

1,050Capex intensity · USD per tpa (large onshore, incl. pipeline)range 600–1,500 · sourced
48Construction time · monthsrange 36–66 · sourced
12%Mean cost overrunrange 0%–60% · estimate
15%Mean schedule overrunrange 0%–50% · estimate

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
Large-scale onshore liquefaction trains (US Gulf Coast, Qatar, Canada)Greenfield/brownfield export terminals with 4.5–8 Mtpa trains (AP-C3MR/AP-X, ConocoPhillips Optimized Cascade, Shell DMR), full-containment storage tanks and marine berths, typically EPC lump-sum with Bechtel/Kiewit/Technip/JGC-Fluor.900–1,500USD per tpaWoodside Louisiana LNG: 3 trains/16.5 Mtpa, US$17.5bn incl. pipeline & reserve, LNG plant ~US$960/t, first LNG 2029 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/844551/000119312525101722/d944275dex991.htm). CP2 Phase 1: 14.4 Mtpa nameplate, US$15.1bn incl. CP Express pipeline (~US$1,050/t) (https://theenergyyear.com/news/usas-venture-global-takes-fid-secures-15-1-billion-for-cp2-lng-phase-1/). Port Arthur Phase 2: ~13 Mtpa, US$14bn (US$12bn incremental + US$2bn shared) (~US$920–1,080/t) (https://www.ogj.com/pipelines-transportation/lng/news/55318637/sempra-advances-port-arthur-lng-phase-2-with-fid-14-billion-investment). Commonwealth LNG: 9.5 Mtpa, US$9.75bn financing (~US$1,030/t) (https://theenergyyear.com/news/caturus-reaches-fid-on-commonwealth-lng-project/). Qatar NFE uses ~8 Mtpa mega-trains (4 x 8 = 32 Mtpa).
Mid-scale / modular liquefactionFactory-built 0.6–1.5 Mtpa trains (Venture Global/Baker Hughes block trains, Cheniere Corpus Christi Stage 3 midscale, Chart IPSMR) installed in multiples to cut site labor and schedule risk.700–1,300USD per tpaCorpus Christi Stage 3 = seven midscale trains, 1.3 Bcf/d nominal (~10 Mtpa), completed 2026; Midscale Trains 8–9 add 0.4 Bcf/d by 2028 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68144). Modular approach adopted by US builders to fight cost inflation (estimate on capex range).
Floating LNG (FLNG)Liquefaction on a converted LNGC or newbuild hull moored near shore/offshore; avoids onshore site labor; built in Asian yards (Samsung Heavy, CIMC Raffles, Wison).600–1,400USD per tpaGolar MKII conversion (CIMC Raffles, Black & Veatch PRICO): 3.5 Mtpa, US$2.2bn all-in, ~US$600/t, delivery Q4 2027 (https://www.rigzone.com/news/golar_lng_advances_flng_project_with_16b_epc_contract-19-sep-2024-178158-article/). Delfin FLNG 1 (Samsung Heavy + Black & Veatch): ~4.4 Mtpa, US$5bn FID June 2026 (~US$1,140/t), start 2030 (https://pgjonline.com/news/2026/june/delfin-reaches-5-billion-fid-for-first-us-flng-project).
Floating storage & regasification units (FSRU)Chartered or owned floating regas vessels (typically 5–7.5 Mtpa send-out, 170,000 m3 storage) with jetty and send-out pipeline; 2–3 year deployment vs 4–5 years onshore.60–200USD per tpa of send-out capacityNewbuild FSRU ~US$300–400m plus jetty/pipeline (estimate). Excelerate integrated Iraq floating import project US$450m (https://www.upstreamonline.com/lng/excelerate-energy-to-deliver-450-million-integrated-floating-lng-import-project-in-iraq/2-1-1892599). Germany Stade FSRU 3.7 Mtpa delayed to Q2 2026 (https://www.kpler.com/blog/european-natural-gas-outlook-2026). Charter rates typically US$100–180k/day (estimate).
Onshore regasification terminalsBreakwater/jetty, full-containment tanks, open-rack/submerged-combustion vaporizers and send-out compression connected to transmission grid; regulated or tolling revenue.15–250USD per tpaIndia: Dahej built at ~INR 360 crore/MT overall (~US$43/tpa), latest Dahej expansion only ~INR 110 crore/MT; Ennore ~INR 1,030 crore/MT (~US$120/tpa); Chhara ~INR 960 crore/MT; Indian firms spent >INR 30,000 crore on ~52 MT of import capacity (https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/costly-lng-terminals-in-india-hit-by-low-utilisation-amid-supply-shock-126040400268_1.html). EU onshore terminals typically higher (estimate US$150–250/tpa).

Value chain

Inputs

  • pipeline feed gas (Henry Hub / Permian / Haynesville / North Field)
  • refrigerants (propane, mixed refrigerant, nitrogen)
  • power or gas-turbine fuel
  • cryogenic steels (9% Ni, stainless), aluminium (brazed HX)
  • LNG carriers & FSRU charters

Process

  • gas pre-treatment (acid gas removal, dehydration, mercury removal)
  • NGL/heavies extraction
  • pre-cooling + liquefaction (C3MR/AP-X, Optimized Cascade, DMR, SMR/PRICO)
  • LNG storage (full-containment tanks)
  • marine loading & shipping
  • regasification (ORV/SCV/IFV) & send-out
  • boil-off gas handling

Outputs

  • LNG cargoes (FOB/DES)
  • regasified pipeline gas
  • LPG/condensate by-products
  • tolling/capacity fees
  • small-scale LNG (trucking, bunkering)

Parameters

17 parameters: 8 sourced, 9 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensity(large onshore, incl. pipeline)1,050 USD per tparange 600–1,500sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026sec.gov
Construction months48 monthsrange 36–66sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026ogj.com
Cost overrun mean12%range 0%–60%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Schedule overrun mean15%range 0%–50%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Asset life (years)30 yearsrange 25–40estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
WACC8%range 6.5%–10%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Typical IRR13%range 10%–16%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026sec.gov
Utilization90%range 80%–100%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Opex % of revenue15%range 8%–25%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
EBITDA margin35%range 20%–60%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Train size Mtpa5.5 Mtparange 0.6–8sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026ogj.com
Liquefaction fee2.75 USD/MMBturange 2.25–3.5estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Payback years7 yearsrange 6–12sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026sec.gov
Regas capex intensity(onshore regas)80 USD per tparange 15–250sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026business-standard.com
India regas utilization47%range 25%–98%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026thehindu.com
FLNG capex intensity900 USD per tparange 600–1,400sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026pgjonline.com
FSRU newbuild cost350 USD millionrange 280–450estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
EPC cost escalation and contractor distress on lump-sum contractsFinancing Shared factors: Labour 0.5 · Steel 0.3 · Electrical equipment 0.2 · Construction materials 0.2Watch: EPC change-order claims; contractor credit spreads (Zachry precedent); Gulf Coast craft wage surveys; steel mill PPI
30%
20%
12 mo
Gulf Coast craft labor shortage from concurrent megaprojectsLabour Shared factors: Labour 0.9Watch: number of LNG trains under construction in TX/LA; pipefitter/welder wage rates; craft attrition and per-diem levels
45%
10%
6 mo
Middle East supply disruption / Hormuz closure & Qatar force majeureGeopolitical Shared factors: Gas 0.8 · Oil 0.6 · Policy 0.3Watch: QatarEnergy force majeure notices; Hormuz transit counts / war-risk insurance premia; JKM–TTF spike; Ras Laffan repair milestones; US–Iran peace talks
50%
5%
6 mo
Long-lead cryogenic & rotating equipment bottleneck (MCHE, refrigerant compressors, gas turbines)Supply chain Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.6 · Data-centre demand 0.3 · Steel 0.2Watch: GE Vernova / Siemens Energy / Baker Hughes turbine backlog; Air Products MCHE shop loading; compressor PPI; data-center gas-power orders
35%
6%
9 mo
Interest-rate and project-finance cost increaseFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.9Watch: UST 10y and SOFR swaps; bank LNG lending appetite; ECA participation
30%
5%
0 mo
US export permitting & litigation (DOE non-FTA, FERC, court vacatur)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.9Watch: DOE non-FTA authorisations; DC Circuit rulings on FERC orders; FERC blanket-certificate rule changes
25%
4%
12 mo
Feed-gas pipeline and power interconnection interface delays (incl. e-drive trains)Interface Shared factors: Grid queue 0.5 · Power price 0.3 · Steel 0.2 · Policy 0.2Watch: header pipeline in-service dates (e.g. Rio Bravo); utility interconnection agreements; ERCOT/MISO queue status
25%
3%
6 mo
Hurricane / extreme weather damage during Gulf Coast constructionTechnical Shared factors: Labour 0.4 · Construction materials 0.3Watch: NOAA hurricane season outlook; builder's-risk insurance premiums
15%
3%
3 mo
Post-2028 supply wave depresses spot spreads and SPA pricingMarket Shared factors: Gas 0.7 · Policy 0.2Watch: TTF–HH spread forward curve; new SPA fixed-fee levels; uncontracted capacity share; Qatar NFE/NFS start-up dates
35%
0%
0 mo
India regas under-utilisation & demand destruction at high spot pricesMarket Shared factors: Gas 0.7 · Policy 0.3Watch: PPAC monthly LNG imports; terminal utilisation (Kochi, Ennore, Chhara); spot LNG vs alternative fuel parity; Kochi–Bengaluru pipeline completion
45%
0%
0 mo
EU policy shift: Russian LNG ban, methane-import rules and falling gas demand strand FSRUsRegulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.7 · Gas 0.4Watch: EU gas demand vs 5-yr average; FSRU charter renewals; EU methane regulation import compliance; terminal booking ratios
30%
0%
0 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
Henry Hub gas price (US feed gas)US SPAs typically 115% x HH + US$2.25–3.50 fixed fee; HH spikes compress spot margins but not tolling fees (estimate). HH $3.18 on 2026-09-29 (FRED).2–6USD/MMBtuFeedgas cost, Export margin
EU TTF gas priceTTF–HH spread sets US cargo netback; H1 2026 TTF averaged ~$14.7/MMBtu (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68064).7–40USD/MMBtuRevenue, EU regas demand
Asia (Japan) LNG priceIndian spot demand (industrial/power) destroyed above ~$12–15/MMBtu (estimate); JKM averaged ~$15.6 in H1 2026, spot $25–27 at peak.8–30USD/MMBtuRevenue, India demand
Brent crude (oil-indexed LNG contracts)Qatar/Asian term contracts priced at ~11–13% Brent slope; +$10/bbl ≈ +$1.1–1.3/MMBtu (estimate).55–130USD/bblRevenue, Contract price
TTF minus Henry Hub spread (US export arbitrage)Below ~US$3–4/MMBtu (liquefaction fee + shipping) US cargoes get cancelled, as in 2020 (estimate).2–35USD/MMBtuExport margin, Cargo cancellation risk
Liquefaction capex intensityEach +US$100/tpa raises required tolling fee by ~US$0.20–0.25/MMBtu at 8% WACC/20 years (estimate).600–1,500USD/tpaCapex, Tolling fee required
Air & gas compressor PPI (refrigerant compressor proxy)Refrigerant compressors + drivers are ~10–15% of plant capex (estimate).300–450indexCapex
Steel mill products PPITanks, piping, structural steel and modules; steel-linked share ~15–20% of capex (estimate).250–450indexCapex
Show 4 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
Regasification terminal utilisationIndia average 47% in 2025 (58% in 2024); Dahej 94–98% vs other terminals <=35% (https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/india-added-525-mtpa-regasification-capacity-in-2025-igu-world-lng-report/article71198717.ece).25%–98%Regas revenue, Tariff
FSRU charter rateTightens when EU/Asian emergency demand rises (2022, 2026) (estimate).90,000–200,000USD/dayRegas cost, FSRU owner revenue
Gulf Coast craft labor cost / availabilityLabor is ~25–35% of onshore capex; 8+ concurrent Gulf Coast LNG builds drive wage inflation (estimate).70–130USD/hour all-inCapex, Schedule
Project finance all-in cost of debtCP2's US$15.1bn financing drew US$34bn commitments; +100bp ≈ −0.7 to −1.0pp equity IRR (estimate).5.5%–9%Financing cost, IRR

Price feeds (13)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Henry Hub spot natural gasDHHNGSPFREDUSD/MMBtudaily
Henry Hub natural gas (monthly)MHHNGSPFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
EU natural gas (TTF), World BankPNGASEUUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
Japan/Asia LNG import price, World BankPNGASJPUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
Brent crude spotDCOILBRENTEUFREDUSD/bbldaily
NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futuresNG=FYahooUSD/MMBtudaily
ICE Dutch TTF natural gas front-month futuresTTF=FYahooEUR/MWhdaily
ICE Brent crude futuresBZ=FYahooUSD/bbldaily
Show 5 more feeds
SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
PPI: Air and gas compressor manufacturingPCU333912333912FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Power boiler and heat exchanger manufacturingPCU332410332410FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Metal tank (heavy gauge) manufacturingPCU332420332420FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Steel mill productsWPU1017FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Turbines and turbine generator setsPCU333611333611FREDindexmonthly

Listed tickers (32)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 16

  • LNG Cheniere Energy NYSE American · US
  • CQP Cheniere Energy Partners NYSE American · US
  • VG Venture Global NYSE · US
  • NEXT NextDecade NASDAQ · US
  • SRE Sempra (Port Arthur LNG) NYSE · US
  • EE Excelerate Energy (FSRU) NYSE · US
  • GLNG Golar LNG (FLNG) NASDAQ · EU
  • XOM ExxonMobil (Golden Pass, PNG LNG, Mozambique) NYSE · US
  • SHEL Shell plc NYSE · EU
  • TTE.PA TotalEnergies Euronext Paris · EU
  • EQNR Equinor (Hammerfest LNG) NYSE · EU
  • WDS.AX Woodside Energy (Louisiana LNG) ASX · APAC
  • PETRONET.NS Petronet LNG (Dahej, Kochi) NSE · IN
  • GAIL.NS GAIL (India) (Dabhol via Konkan LNG; LNG portfolio) NSE · IN
  • IOC.NS Indian Oil Corporation (Ennore LNG) NSE · IN
  • HINDPETRO.NS Hindustan Petroleum (Chhara LNG) NSE · IN

Suppliers · 14

  • COP ConocoPhillips (Optimized Cascade licensor; Port Arthur offtaker) NYSE · US
  • TE.PA Technip Energies Euronext Paris · EU
  • KBR KBR NYSE · US
  • FLR Fluor (JGC Fluor LNG Canada JV) NYSE · US
  • SPM.MI Saipem Borsa Italiana · EU
  • 1963.T JGC Holdings TSE · APAC
  • 6366.T Chiyoda Corporation TSE · APAC
  • LT.NS Larsen & Toubro (Energy Hydrocarbon) NSE · IN
  • BKR Baker Hughes (incl. Chart Industries since Jul 2026) NASDAQ · US
  • ENR.DE Siemens Energy XETRA · EU
  • GEV GE Vernova NYSE · US
  • APD Air Products (AP-C3MR/AP-X licensor, MCHE) NYSE · US
  • LIN Linde (MFC process, coil-wound HX) NASDAQ · EU
  • GTT.PA GTT (membrane containment) Euronext Paris · EU

Consumers · 1

  • GUJENERGY.NS Gujarat Energy Ltd (ex-Gujarat Gas, merged GSPC/GSPL; Mundra LNG stake) NSE · IN

Proxys · 1

  • FLNG FLEX LNG (LNG shipping proxy) NYSE · EU

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • Liquefaction capacity under construction (Mtpa) and % contracted under 15–20 yr SPAs
  • Capex per tpa vs FID estimate
  • Schedule float to first LNG / substantial completion
  • Train availability and LNG production vs nameplate (Mtpa)
  • Cargoes loaded per month; cancellations
  • Regas terminal utilisation (%) and send-out (mmscmd)
  • TTF–HH and JKM–HH spreads (USD/MMBtu)
  • Fixed liquefaction fee realised (USD/MMBtu)
  • EBITDA per tonne and contracted cash-flow coverage
  • FSRU fleet charter coverage (years)

Regional notes

IndiaIndia has ~52.5 Mtpa regas capacity across 8 terminals (Dahej 22.5 after Mar-2026 expansion; Hazira, Kochi, Dabhol, Ennore, Mundra, Dhamra, Chhara at 5 Mtpa each) with 11.3 Mtpa more under construction by 2028 and Petronet's Gopalpur terminal planned. Utilisation averaged ~47% in 2025 (Dahej 94–98%, others <=35%). LNG supplies roughly half of India's gas consumption (estimate) and over half of imports transited Hormuz; March-2026 imports fell to 1.6 MT (3-year low) and the US has overtaken Qatar as top supplier. Gas is ~6% of the primary energy mix; regas tariffs are higher at newer terminals (INR 83–87/MMBtu needed at 50% utilisation).
United StatesWorld's largest exporter: H1 2026 exports 17.4 Bcf/d (+23% y/y) after Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass (first cargo Apr 2026). Six FIDs in 2025 and Commonwealth + Delfin in 2026; Lake Charles LNG was shelved by Energy Transfer (2026). Risks: Gulf Coast craft labour, turbine/compressor lead times, DOE/FERC litigation, hurricane exposure. FERC proposed extending blanket certificates to some LNG facility work (May 2026).
EuropeLNG import capacity +76 bcm (2021–25) to 242 bcm/yr via FSRUs (Germany: Wilhelmshaven, Brunsbüttel, Mukran, Stade; Netherlands Eemshaven; Italy Piombino/Ravenna; Finland Inkoo; Greece Alexandroupolis; Poland Gdańsk FSRU). Russian LNG ban from end-2026; pipeline gas by 30 Nov 2027 (fines up to 3.5% of turnover). EU gas demand ~19% below pre-crisis average, creating FSRU stranding risk post-2030; Qatar force majeure on Edison/Europe extended to Dec 2026.
Middle EastQatar (77 Mtpa nameplate; NFE 32 Mtpa, NFS 16 Mtpa, NFW 16 Mtpa toward 142 Mtpa) is the cost leader but 2026 Iranian strikes removed ~17% of capacity for ~3 years and Hormuz disruption delays NFE Train 1 to 1H 2027. Oman LNG (Qalhat, outside Hormuz) is the only Gulf-region LNG supply that bypasses the strait; UAE Ruwais LNG (9.6 Mtpa, electric drive) is inside the Gulf; Saudi East-West bypass helps oil but not LNG.
Asia-PacificJapan/Korea/China/Taiwan remain largest buyers; Asian LNG demand set to fall for a second year in 2026 on supply shortfall and price; Australian (Woodside, Chevron) and PNG supply gain strategic value; Asian yards dominate FLNG/FSRU/LNGC construction.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 17

  • QatarEnergy / QatarEnergy LNG Doha, Qatar · ME77 Mtpa nameplate expanding to 142 Mtpa (NFE 32 Mtpa, NFS 16 Mtpa, NFW); Iranian strike (Mar 2026) damaged 2 trains = ~17% capacity, ~3-year repair; NFE Train 1 slipped to 1H 2027; force majeure extended to Dec 2026 for some buyers.
  • Cheniere Energy Houston, US · USSabine Pass (3.6 Bcf/d nominal) and Corpus Christi (3.1 Bcf/d nominal after Stage 3 completion Sep 2026); Midscale Trains 8–9 FID 2025, online 2028.
  • Venture Global Arlington, US · USCalcasieu Pass, Plaquemines (~27 Mtpa peak) and CP2 Phase 1 (14.4 Mtpa nameplate, US$15.1bn FID Jul 2025, first LNG 2027); modular Baker Hughes block trains.
  • Woodside Energy Perth, Australia · APACLouisiana LNG 16.5 Mtpa (expandable to 27.6), US$17.5bn FID Apr 2025, Bechtel EPC; Stonepeak 40% project partner; Aramco stake talks.
  • Sempra Infrastructure San Diego/Houston, US · USPort Arthur Phase 1 (13 Mtpa) under construction; Phase 2 13 Mtpa US$14bn FID Sep 2025 (T3 2030, T4 2031); Blackstone-led group bought 49.9%; Cameron LNG; ECA LNG (Mexico).
  • NextDecade Houston, US · USRio Grande LNG (Brownsville) Trains 1–3 under construction; Trains 4 and 5 FIDs in 2025 (~6 Mtpa and ~US$6.7bn each, ~US$1,120/t; T5 completion Q2 2031); Bechtel EPC; Rio Bravo 4.5 Bcf/d header pipeline due 2H 2026.
  • Golden Pass LNG (QatarEnergy 70% / ExxonMobil 30%) Sabine Pass, US · US18 Mtpa; first cargo Apr 2026 after Zachry bankruptcy (2024) re-baselined EPC; full capacity 2028.
  • Caturus (Commonwealth LNG) Houston, US · US9.5 Mtpa Commonwealth LNG, Cameron Parish; FID May 2026 with US$9.75bn financing; start 2030.
  • Delfin Midstream Houston, US · USFirst US FLNG: ~4.4 Mtpa vessel, US$5bn FID June 2026 (Samsung Heavy/Black & Veatch), start 2030.
  • Shell / LNG Canada JV London, UK / Kitimat, Canada · EULNG Canada Phase 2 FID Sep 2026 doubles capacity 14 to 28 Mtpa (JGC Fluor JV EPC), early-2030s start; Shell DMR technology.
  • Petronet LNG New Delhi, India · INDahej 22.5 Mtpa after 5 Mtpa expansion (Mar 2026); Kochi 5 Mtpa at ~25% utilisation pending Kochi–Bengaluru pipeline; planned Gopalpur terminal (Odisha); ~INR 40,000 crore capex plan.
  • Indian Oil (Ennore), HPCL (Chhara), GSPC/Gujarat Energy (Mundra), Adani-TotalEnergies (Dhamra), Shell (Hazira), Konkan LNG/GAIL (Dabhol) India · INSeven 5 Mtpa-class terminals; most ran at <=35% utilisation in FY26; Dabhol breakwater lifted capacity 2.9 to 5 Mtpa (2025); Chhara commissioned 2025.
  • Excelerate Energy The Woodlands, US · USLargest FSRU fleet (~10 units); integrated Iraq floating import project (US$450m); Bangladesh, Brazil, Jamaica.
  • Höegh Evi (ex-Höegh LNG) Oslo, Norway · EU~10 FSRUs incl. German Wilhelmshaven/Brunsbüttel charters; Egypt 10-year FSRU deal (2025).
  • BW LNG Singapore/Oslo · APACFSRU owner (Egypt, Germany, Ghana, Philippines).
  • Deutsche Energy Terminal (DET) / Gasunie / Snam / Enagás Germany / Netherlands / Italy / Spain · EUEU state-backed FSRU and onshore terminal owners; EU LNG import capacity +76 bcm 2021–25 to 242 bcm/yr; Snam Ravenna FSRU online May 2025.
  • ADNOC Gas / Ruwais LNG Abu Dhabi, UAE · ME9.6 Mtpa electric-drive Ruwais LNG (Technip Energies/JGC/NMDC) under construction; both Ruwais and Das Island sit inside the Gulf, so exports are exposed to Hormuz disruption.

Suppliers · 21

  • Air Products Licensor · USAP-C3MR / AP-X / AP-DMR processes and coil-wound main cryogenic heat exchangers (MCHE) — the dominant long-lead item.
  • ConocoPhillips Licensor · USOptimized Cascade process (Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Port Arthur, Rio Grande).
  • Linde Engineering Licensor · EUMFC process, coil-wound and plate-fin heat exchangers, small/mid-scale LNG.
  • Shell (DMR) Licensor · EUDual Mixed Refrigerant process (LNG Canada, Sakhalin).
  • Black & Veatch Licensor · USPRICO SMR for FLNG/mid-scale (Golar, Delfin).
  • Bechtel EPC · USLump-sum EPC for Woodside Louisiana (95% lump sum/fixed rate), Port Arthur 1–2, Rio Grande 1–5, CP2 partner.
  • Technip Energies EPC · EUQatar NFE/NFS (with CCC), Ruwais LNG, Commonwealth LNG engineering; modular approach.
  • Kiewit EPC · USMajor US LNG constructor (Commonwealth, Corpus Christi midscale, Plaquemines).
  • KBR EPC · USLNG engineering/FEED, Woodside Louisiana FEED heritage, Qatar PMC.
  • McDermott EPC · USCameron LNG, LNG modules and tanks (CB&I storage spun off).
  • Saipem EPC · EUMozambique LNG, offshore/FLNG and onshore LNG EPC.
  • JGC / Fluor (JGC Fluor BC LNG II JV) EPC · APACLNG Canada Phase 1 and Phase 2 EPC (FID Sep 2026).
  • Chiyoda EPC · APACQatar NFE (with Technip), Golden Pass (with McDermott/Zachry consortium).
  • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon EPC · INIndian regas/terminal EPC, Middle East gas processing and modules; fabrication yards Hazira/Kattupalli.
  • Zachry (cautionary) EPC · USChapter 11 in 2024 on Golden Pass fixed-price overrun — reference case for contractor distress risk.
  • Baker Hughes (incl. Chart Industries) OEM · USLM/Frame gas turbines and centrifugal refrigerant compressors; acquired Chart (IPSMR, brazed aluminium HX, cold boxes) for US$13.6bn, closed Jul 2026.
  • Siemens Energy OEM · EUCompression trains, aero-derivative turbines, e-drive motors and grid connection for electric LNG.
  • GE Vernova OEM · USHeavy-duty gas turbines for on-site power; slot competition with data-center gas power demand.
  • MAN Energy Solutions / Mitsubishi Heavy Industries OEM · EUCompressors, BOG compressors, steam/gas turbines.
  • Samsung Heavy / Hanwha Ocean / HD Hyundai / CIMC Raffles / Wison OEM · APACFLNG hulls/topsides, FSRUs, LNG carriers.
  • GTT OEM · EUMembrane containment for LNGCs, FSRUs and onshore tanks.

Customers · 7

  • Asian utilities & importers (JERA, KOGAS, CPC, Chinese NOCs) power & city gas (Asia)Largest LNG buyers; JKM ~US$15.6 average H1 2026, four-year high; Asian demand set to fall for a second year as war shrinks supply.
  • European utilities & aggregators (Uniper, SEFE, Engie, Edison, Eni) power, heating, industry (EU)Europe LNG imports forecast 145 Mt in 2026 (127 Mt 2025); Edison's Qatari volumes under force majeure to Dec 2026.
  • Indian fertiliser plants (urea pool) fertiliserFertiliser + CGD = ~52% of Petronet volumes, low fuel substitution.
  • Indian CGD companies (IGL, MGL, Gujarat Energy, Adani Total Gas) city gas distributionPriority allocation; spot LNG backfills APM shortfall.
  • Portfolio traders (Vitol, Gunvor, Glencore, Mercuria, Trafigura) trading/offtakeAnchor offtakers for Delfin and Commonwealth SPAs.
  • Gas-fired power & data centers (US/EU/Asia) power generationGas power demand competes for turbines and tightens HH.
  • Refining & petrochemicals, steel DRI, glass/ceramics (India Morbi cluster) industrialHighly price-elastic; Indian industrial users curtail above ~US$12–15/MMBtu (estimate).

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
A100Pre-FEED, site selection, feed-gas & offtake strategyDevelop · factors: Policy, Gas12%0.85 / 1 / 1.5
A110Permitting: FERC/DOE (US), environmental clearance, CRZ/PNGRB (IN), port & marine approvalsDevelop · factors: Policy20%0.8 / 1 / 1.8
A120Liquefaction technology selection & licensing (AP-C3MR/AP-X, Optimized Cascade, DMR, PRICO/IPSMR)Engineer · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment5%0.9 / 1 / 1.2
A130FEED (often dual-FEED EPC competition) and lump-sum EPC pricingEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel12%0.85 / 1 / 1.4
A140SPA marketing, project finance & FIDDevelop · factors: Interest rates, Gas, Policy10%0.8 / 1 / 2
A200Long-lead procurement: MCHE/cold boxes, refrigerant compressors, gas turbines/e-motors, BOG compressorsProcure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Data-centre demand, Steel30%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
A210Bulk procurement: cryogenic piping/valves, 9% Ni steel, structural steel, cable, instrumentationProcure · EPC · factors: Steel, Copper, Aluminium20%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
A300Site preparation, soil improvement/piling, marine works, jetty & breakwaterConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Labour18%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
A310Module fabrication (Asian/Gulf yards) and heavy-lift transportConstruct · EPC · factors: Steel, Labour, Oil25%0.9 / 1 / 1.35
A320Full-containment LNG storage tanksConstruct · EPC · factors: Steel, Construction materials, Labour30%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
A330Mechanical, piping, E&I construction and module hook-up (Train 1)Construct · EPC · factors: Labour, Copper, Electrical equipment35%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
A400Pre-commissioning & systems completion (flushing, leak tests, loop checks, power-up)Commission · EPC · factors: Labour, Grid queue8%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
A410Commissioning, feed-gas introduction, cool-down & first LNG / commissioning cargoCommission · EPC · factors: Gas, Labour6%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
A420Performance test, substantial completion/COD and subsequent-train ramp-upCommission · EPC · factors: Labour, Gas10%0.9 / 1 / 1.5

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Construction labor & field indirects25%
    Labour
    • Labour 100%
  • Liquefaction process equipment (MCHE/cold boxes, refrigerant compressors, drivers, pre-treatment)22%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 40%
    • Steel 30%
    • Aluminium 20%
  • Bulk materials & fabricated modules (piping, structural steel, valves)15%
    Equipment
    • Steel 70%
    • Copper 10%
  • LNG storage tanks, marine berths & jetty10%
    Construction
    • Steel 50%
    • Construction materials 40%
  • Engineering, procurement services & project management8%
    Engineering
    • Labour 80%
  • Contingency, commissioning & first-fill8%
    Commissioning
    • Gas 30%
  • Power generation/e-drive, utilities, E&I & control systems7%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 60%
    • Copper 30%
  • Owner's costs, development, permitting & land5%
    Develop
    • Policy 50%

Financial template

Revenue model

Liquefaction: 15–20 yr SPAs/tolling (fixed liquefaction fee ~US$2.25–3.50/MMBtu take-or-pay + 115% HH pass-through) plus merchant/spot cargo margin; Regas/FSRU: capacity reservation fees, regulated or charter day-rates.

Margin driver

TTF minus Henry Hub spread (US export arbitrage)

Ramp-up

1 year to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a LNG decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 17 parameters, 11 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are labour, policy, electrical equipment and gas. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 13 price feeds and 32 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Labour
  • Policy
  • Electrical equipment
  • Gas
  • Steel
  • Oil
  • Construction materials
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Labour31.4%
  • Steel22.1%
  • Electrical equipment13%
  • Aluminium4.4%
  • Construction materials4%
  • Copper3.6%
  • Policy2.5%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. sec.govhttps://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/844551/000119312525101722/d944275dex991.htm
  2. theenergyyear.comhttps://theenergyyear.com/news/usas-venture-global-takes-fid-secures-15-1-billion-for-cp2-lng-phase-1/
  3. ogj.comhttps://www.ogj.com/pipelines-transportation/lng/news/55318637/sempra-advances-port-arthur-lng-phase-2-with-fid-14-billion-investment
  4. theenergyyear.comhttps://theenergyyear.com/news/caturus-reaches-fid-on-commonwealth-lng-project/
  5. pgjonline.comhttps://pgjonline.com/news/2026/june/delfin-reaches-5-billion-fid-for-first-us-flng-project
  6. rigzone.comhttps://www.rigzone.com/news/golar_lng_advances_flng_project_with_16b_epc_contract-19-sep-2024-178158-article/
  7. poten.comhttps://www.poten.com/lng-finance-world-markets-us-projects-drive-liquefaction-finance-to-record-level/
  8. oilprice.comhttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Six-FIDs-72-Billion-US-LNGs-Record-Breaking-Year.html
  9. constructiondive.comhttps://www.constructiondive.com/news/bechtel-nextdecade-rio-grande-lng-project-investment/760476/
  10. igu.orghttps://www.igu.org/press-releases/world-lng-report-2026
  11. ogj.comhttps://www.ogj.com/pipelines-transportation/lng/news/55406923/qatarenergy-nfe-lng-train-1-to-start-1h-2027-ras-laffan-repairs-to-take-3-years
  12. gasworld.comhttps://www.gasworld.com/story/edison-extends-qatarenergy-lng-force-majeure-to-december/2260792.article/
  13. eia.govhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68064
  14. eia.govhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68144
  15. ogj.comhttps://www.ogj.com/pipelines-transportation/lng/news/55408348/shell-takes-fid-to-double-lng-canada-capacity
  16. business-standard.comhttps://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/costly-lng-terminals-in-india-hit-by-low-utilisation-amid-supply-shock-126040400268_1.html
  17. thehindu.comhttps://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/india-added-525-mtpa-regasification-capacity-in-2025-igu-world-lng-report/article71198717.ece
  18. energy.economictimes.indiatimes.comhttps://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/petronet-lng-holds-firm-amid-hormuz-crisis-brokerages-bullish-on-kochi-ramp-up-dahej-expansion/134559854
  19. energy.ec.europa.euhttps://energy.ec.europa.eu/strategy/repowereu-phase-out-russian-energy-imports/repowereu-4-years_en
  20. aa.com.trhttps://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/eu-formally-adopts-step-by-step-ban-on-russian-gas-imports/3811029
  21. kpler.comhttps://www.kpler.com/blog/european-natural-gas-outlook-2026
  22. upstreamonline.comhttps://www.upstreamonline.com/lng/excelerate-energy-to-deliver-450-million-integrated-floating-lng-import-project-in-iraq/2-1-1892599
  23. globenewswire.comhttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/16/3328459/0/en/baker-hughes-completes-acquisition-of-chart-industries.html
  24. foley.comhttps://www.foley.com/insights/publications/2026/05/ferc-just-rewrote-the-rules-for-natural-gas-infrastructure-heres-what-it-means/
  25. blogs.worldbank.orghttps://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging
  26. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP
  27. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNGASEUUSDM
  28. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNGASJPUSDM

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