1. Home
  2. Industries
  3. Green hydrogen & derivatives

Industry brief · Energy & chemicals

Green hydrogen & derivatives

Renewable (electrolytic) hydrogen made with alkaline, PEM and solid-oxide electrolysers, plus its derivatives: green ammonia, e-methanol and e-fuels. Also covers the electrolyser manufacturing base. In 2025 installed electrolysis doubled to over 4 GW, about three-quarters of it in China, but the 2030 pipeline shrank from 37 Mt to 27 Mt as Western projects were cancelled. Projects now advance only with auction-backed offtake: India SECI, the EU Hydrogen Bank, H2Global, Japan CfD and US 45V (construction must start before 2028). The 2026 Hormuz gas shock narrowed the green-grey cost gap, mainly in Europe and Asia, but did not by itself trigger FIDs.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
12 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%2.5%5%10%15%Probability →Cost impact →Offtake / demand failure (no bankable long-term buyer): 55% likely, 0% cost impact, 18 monthsSubsidy / policy reversal or deadline (45V construction-start <2028, EHB withdrawal, SIGHT budget): 45% likely, 10% cost impact, 12 monthsGrid interconnection & transmission queue delays: 45% likely, 6% cost impact, 12 monthsTransformer, rectifier & substation lead times: 45% likely, 5% cost impact, 9 monthsElectrolyser OEM performance & solvency (stack degradation, under-delivery, restructurings): 35% likely, 12% cost impact, 9 monthsFinancing cost / cost of capital: 40% likely, 6% cost impact, 6 monthsEPC / balance-of-plant execution & labour (BoP + EPC >50% of installed cost): 40% likely, 12% cost impact, 6 monthsGeopolitics: Hormuz/Middle East disruption (export logistics, insurance) and gas-price whipsaw: 40% likely, 5% cost impact, 6 monthsWater, land & permitting / ESG opposition: 25% likely, 3% cost impact, 6 monthsTrade & local-content measures (tariffs on Chinese electrolysers, NZIA resilience criteria, ALMM-type lists): 35% likely, 8% cost impact, 4 monthsRenewable power cost & RFNBO rules (additionality, temporal/geographic correlation): 40% likely, 8% cost impact, 3 monthsCommodity inflation (copper, steel, aluminium, nickel): 35% likely, 4% cost impact, 0 monthsEPCSubsidyElectrolyser OEM…

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 18 cited sources · 17 parameters · 12 swing factors.

At a glance

2,200Capex intensity · USD per kW electrolysis installed (ex-China)range 500–2,600 · sourced
30Construction time · monthsrange 20–48 · estimate
25%Mean cost overrunrange 5%–60% · estimate
35%Mean schedule overrunrange 10%–100% · estimate

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
Alkaline electrolysers (ALK / pressurised ALK)Mature nickel-electrode technology and the lowest-cost option. Dominant in China (LONGi, PERIC, Sungrow, Envision) and at thyssenkrupp nucera, John Cockerill, Nel and Sunfire.500–2,500USD per kW installed (system + BoP + EPC)IEA GHR 2026: Chinese electrolysers installed in China cost USD 500-1,100/kW, while installations outside China cost USD 1,900-2,500/kW. Chinese stack-only tender bids fell below USD 80/kW, full packages to USD 170-200/kW, and the non-China equipment reference is USD 290-380/kW. Nel's next-gen pressurised ALK targets <USD 1,450/kW for 25 MW.
PEM electrolysersProton-exchange membrane stacks (iridium/platinum catalysts) with fast dynamic response, suited to variable renewables. Made by ITM, Siemens Energy, Plug, Electric Hydrogen, Ohmium, Nel and Cummins/Accelera.1,000–3,000USD per kW installedITM Alpha 50 (50 MW) is ~USD 1,200/kW and Electric Hydrogen's HYPRPlant targets ~USD 1,000/kW (Infinium Roadrunner, 2027), per IEA GHR 2026. Typical Western installed cost is USD 2,000-3,000/kW (estimate).
Solid oxide electrolysers (SOEC)High-temperature steam electrolysis (~37-42 kWh/kg with waste heat) by Topsoe (Herning), Bloom, Sunfire and Ceres licensees. Pre-commercial at scale.2,500–5,000USD per kW installedthyssenkrupp nucera dropped SOEC mass-production plans and cut its FY2026 outlook (Aug 2026), which signals slower SOEC scale-up. The capex range is an estimate.
Green ammoniaElectrolytic H2, ASU nitrogen and a Haber-Bosch loop with buffer storage. The dominant derivative for export and for Indian fertilizer decarbonisation.3,500–8,000USD per tpa NH3 (incl. renewables, electrolysis, storage)India SECI 2025: 724 ktpa contracted at INR 49.75-64.74/kg NH3 (~USD 570-750/t). AM Green Kakinada targets an 85% capacity factor using pumped hydro. NEOM: 2.2 GW electrolysis, ~1.2 Mtpa NH3, ~USD 8.4bn, construction completed in 2026. Capex range is an estimate.
e-Methanol & e-fuels (e-SAF)Electrolytic H2 plus biogenic or captured CO2, made into methanol (shipping: Maersk) or Fischer-Tropsch/MtJ e-kerosene for ReFuelEU Aviation.2,500–5,500USD per tpa methanol (incl. electrolysis)Ørsted cancelled FlagshipONE (2024). Plug Power signed a 280 MW electrolyser deal for a Danish e-jet project (Sep 2026). Capex range is an estimate.
Electrolyser manufacturing (gigafactories)Stack and system factories (cell coating, stack assembly, BoP skids). China has >35 GW/yr of capacity against 4.7 GW of 2025 orders. India's SIGHT supports 3 GW of domestic capacity, and EU NZIA resilience criteria favour non-Chinese supply.40–150USD million per GW/yr of factory capacityUtilisation is the binding constraint, and Western OEMs (Nel, ITM, Nucera, Plug) are loss-making or restructuring. The capex range is an estimate.

Value chain

Inputs

  • renewable electricity (solar, wind, hydro; PPA or captive)
  • grid connection / transmission
  • demineralised water (~9-15 L/kg H2 incl. treatment)
  • electrolyser stacks (Ni, Pt, Ir, Ti, ceramic)
  • power electronics (transformers, rectifiers)
  • nitrogen (ASU) or CO2 (biogenic/DAC) for derivatives
  • storage (BESS, pumped hydro, H2 buffer)
  • EPC & BoP equipment

Process

  • renewable generation & hybrid optimisation
  • HV substation, transformer & rectifier
  • electrolysis (ALK/PEM/SOEC)
  • gas purification & drying
  • H2 compression & buffer storage
  • ammonia synthesis (Haber-Bosch) or methanol synthesis
  • liquefaction / refrigerated storage
  • certification (RFNBO, GHG intensity, 45VH2-GREET)
  • export terminal / pipeline

Outputs

  • green hydrogen (refining, steel DRI, chemicals)
  • green ammonia (fertilizer, co-firing, marine fuel)
  • e-methanol (shipping, chemicals)
  • e-SAF / e-kerosene
  • oxygen by-product
  • grid balancing services

Parameters

17 parameters: 6 sourced, 11 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensity(ex-China)2,200 USD per kW electrolysis installedrange 500–2,600sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026iea.blob.core.windows.net
Construction months30 monthsrange 20–48estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Cost overrun mean25%range 5%–60%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Schedule overrun mean35%range 10%–100%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Asset life (years)(plant; stacks replaced every 7-10 yrs)25 yearsrange 20–30estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
WACC8%range 5%–20%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026iea.blob.core.windows.net
Typical IRR(equity, subsidy-backed)9%range 6%–14%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Utilization(capacity factor)55%range 30%–85%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Opex % of revenue65%range 50%–85%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
EBITDA margin25%range 0%–45%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Capex China(China, 2025)820 USD/kW installedrange 500–1,100sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026iea.blob.core.windows.net
System kWh per kg53 kWh/kg H2range 48–58estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Stack life hours80,000 operating hoursrange 60,000–100,000estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
LCOH renewable5.5 USD/kgrange 3–10sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026iea.blob.core.windows.net
LCOH unabated gas1.8 USD/kgrange 1–4sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026iea.blob.core.windows.net
H2 per t ammonia0.18 t H2 per t NH3range 0.176–0.18sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026iea.blob.core.windows.net
Power share of LCOH60%range 45%–75%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
EPC / balance-of-plant execution & labour (BoP + EPC >50% of installed cost)Labour Shared factors: Labour 0.6 · Construction materials 0.2 · Steel 0.2Watch: EPC bid counts & LSTK appetite; craft labour rates; first-of-a-kind integration issues (ammonia loop turndown)
40%
12%
6 mo
Subsidy / policy reversal or deadline (45V construction-start <2028, EHB withdrawal, SIGHT budget)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.9 · Interest rates 0.1Watch: Treasury/IRS 45V guidance; EU Hydrogen Bank grant signatures; MNRE SIGHT tranche releases; national RFNBO quota laws
45%
10%
12 mo
Electrolyser OEM performance & solvency (stack degradation, under-delivery, restructurings)Technical Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.4 · Interest rates 0.3 · Policy 0.3Watch: OEM cash runway & guidance cuts (Nucera, Nel, Plug); field efficiency vs nameplate (e.g. Sinopec Kuqa); warranty/LD claims
35%
12%
9 mo
Renewable power cost & RFNBO rules (additionality, temporal/geographic correlation)Commodity Shared factors: Power price 0.7 · Policy 0.3Watch: PPA prices; RFNBO delegated act review (2028); curtailment & banking rules in India
40%
8%
3 mo
Trade & local-content measures (tariffs on Chinese electrolysers, NZIA resilience criteria, ALMM-type lists)Supply chain Shared factors: Policy 0.7 · Electrical equipment 0.3Watch: EU NZIA auction criteria; US FEOC/tariff rules; India BCD and approved-list rules
35%
8%
4 mo
Grid interconnection & transmission queue delaysInterface Shared factors: Grid queue 0.8 · Electrical equipment 0.2Watch: TSO connection offer dates; India ISTS/GNA connectivity grants; EU grid permitting backlog (main European barrier per IEA)
45%
6%
12 mo
Financing cost / cost of capitalFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.9 · Policy 0.1Watch: policy rates; green bond spreads; ECA/DFI participation
40%
6%
6 mo
Transformer, rectifier & substation lead timesSupply chain Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.7 · Copper 0.2 · Data-centre demand 0.1Watch: PPI transformers PCU335311335311; OEM quoted lead times (2-4 yrs); data-centre power equipment orders
45%
5%
9 mo
Geopolitics: Hormuz/Middle East disruption (export logistics, insurance) and gas-price whipsawGeopolitical Shared factors: Gas 0.5 · Oil 0.3 · Policy 0.2Watch: TTF/JKM vs 5-yr average; Gulf war-risk premiums; US-Iran negotiations; Red Sea security
40%
5%
6 mo
Commodity inflation (copper, steel, aluminium, nickel)Commodity Shared factors: Copper 0.5 · Steel 0.3 · Aluminium 0.2Watch: PCOPPUSDM; steel mill product PPI; LME nickel
35%
4%
0 mo
Water, land & permitting / ESG oppositionESG Shared factors: Policy 0.7 · Labour 0.3Watch: desalination permits; land acquisition disputes; community consultation outcomes
25%
3%
6 mo
Offtake / demand failure (no bankable long-term buyer)Market Shared factors: Policy 0.6 · Gas 0.3 · Interest rates 0.1Watch: binding (vs MoU) offtake share (~20% of 1.7 Mt firm); auction award vs grant signature attrition; RED III national transposition
55%
0%
18 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
Installed electrolyser capexIEA's model uses USD 820/kW for China and USD 2,200/kW for the rest of the world in 2025, falling to 680 and 1,700 by 2030. Electrolyser capex accounts for up to 60% of LCOH reductions outside China. Over 50% of installed cost is EPC, BoP and contingency, so it tracks construction and electrical-equipment inflation.500–2,600USD/kWCapex, LCOH
Levelised cost of renewable hydrogenIEA 2025 range runs from just over USD 3/kg (China) to >USD 10/kg. Best 2030 sites reach <USD 2 in northern China, USD 3-4 in the Middle East/India/Chile, and USD 3.5 in Europe. India refinery BOO tenders cleared at INR 279-397/kg (~USD 3.0-4.6).3–10USD/kgRevenue gap, Subsidy need
Grey (unabated gas) hydrogen cost~0.16 MMBtu of gas per kg H2, so +USD 10/MMBtu adds ~USD 1.6/kg. Europe's grey LCOH was >USD 9/kg (2022 average) and the 5-year average is ~USD 3/kg. India's grey cost was USD 1.6-2.3/kg. The 2026 TTF/JKM spike (EUR 70/MWh, USD 85/MWh end-Mar) temporarily narrowed the gap.1–4USD/kgCompetitiveness
Delivered renewable power price (PPA + transmission)~53 kWh/kg means +USD 10/MWh adds ~USD 0.53/kg. Power is ~55-70% of LCOH (estimate). IEA 2025 solar LCOE was USD 23-110/MWh and onshore wind USD 30-120/MWh. Indian ISTS waivers and banking rules matter.20–90USD/MWhOpex, LCOH
System specific energy consumptionStack ~47-50 and system incl. BoP ~50-55 kWh/kg (LHV ~60-67%). China's standard requires 47.2 kWh/kg at stack level by 2028 (IEA GHR 2026). SOEC reaches ~37-42 kWh/kg with heat integration. Degradation (~0.5-1%/1,000 h) drives stack replacement at 60-90k hours.48–58kWh/kg H2Opex, LCOH
Electrolyser capacity factorSolar-only is ~0.25-0.3, wind-solar hybrid 0.45-0.6, and hybrid with pumped hydro or grid banking 0.8-0.85 (AM Green Kakinada). Capex per kg falls roughly 1/CF. Derivative synthesis loops need steady feed, which forces storage.30%–85%LCOH, Revenue
Green ammonia contract priceSECI 2025 cleared at INR 49.75-64.74/kg (~USD 570-750/t) vs grey imports at USD 330-525/t in 2025, a 10-130% premium. H2Global and Japan CfD pay higher.550–1,100USD/t NH3Revenue
Conventional ammonia/urea price index (comparator)When grey ammonia spikes (2022, Apr 2026), the green premium shrinks. IEA notes investment decisions use lifetime averages, not spikes.100–250indexRevenue gap
Show 6 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
EU Hydrogen Bank fixed premiumClearing ranges: 1st auction EUR 0.37-0.48/kg, 2nd EUR 0.20-1.88/kg, 3rd (May 2026) EUR 0.44-3.49/kg (EUR 1.09bn, 9 projects, 1.1 GW). Attrition is high: 2nd-round signings fell to EUR 271m and 381 MW from EUR 992m and 2.3 GW.0.2–3.5EUR/kgRevenue
US 45V clean hydrogen PTCTiered by lifecycle GHG intensity (max USD 3/kg for <0.45 kgCO2e/kg), for 10 years. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Jul 2025) requires construction to begin before 1 Jan 2028, so US starts are concentrated in 2026-27.0.6–3USD/kgRevenue
Power transformer & rectifier cost indexPower electronics are ~12-15% of installed cost. Large transformer lead times of 2-4 years compete with data-centre and grid demand.300–520indexCapex, Schedule
Copper price~USD 13,500/t in Jul 2026. Used in busbars, transformers, rectifiers and cabling. Moderate capex sensitivity (~2-4% of installed cost, estimate).8,000–14,000USD/tCapex
Project cost of capitalIEA uses 5-20%. A 1-point WACC change moves LCOH ~4-6% (estimate). Chinese and auction-backed projects get the lowest rates, and merchant export projects the highest.5%–20%LCOH
Industrial gases PPI (merchant H2 market proxy)Tracks merchant H2, N2 and O2 pricing by Linde, Air Products and Air Liquide. A useful proxy for grey H2 replacement value in small-scale applications.200–320indexRevenue

Price feeds (16)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
EU natural gas (TTF), World BankPNGASEUUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
Henry Hub natural gas spotDHHNGSPFREDUSD/MMBtudaily
Japan/Asia LNG import price, World BankPNGASJPUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
US PPI: industrial gas manufacturingPCU325120325120FREDindexmonthly
US PPI: power, distribution & specialty transformersPCU335311335311FREDindexmonthly
US PPI: electrical machinery & equipmentWPU117FREDindexmonthly
Copper, World BankPCOPPUSDMFREDUSD/tmonthly
US PPI: ammonia, nitric acid, ammonium compounds & ureaWPU0652013AFREDindexmonthly
Show 8 more feeds
SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
US PPI: air & gas compressorsPCU333912333912FREDindexmonthly
Urea, prill spot fob Middle East (World Bank Pink Sheet)Urea, (Ukraine), prill spot f.o.b. Middle EastWorldBankUSD/tmonthly
Dutch TTF gas front-month futuresTTF=FYahooEUR/MWhdaily
NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futuresNG=FYahooUSD/MMBtudaily
COMEX copper futuresHG=FYahooUSD/lbdaily
Global X Hydrogen ETF (sector proxy)HYDRYahooUSDdaily
EUR/USD exchange rateEURUSD=XYahooUSD per EURdaily
USD/INR exchange rateINR=XYahooINR per USDdaily

Listed tickers (27)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 9

  • AI.PA Air Liquide Euronext Paris · EU
  • APD Air Products and Chemicals NYSE · US
  • LIN Linde plc NYSE · US
  • ADANIENT.NS Adani Enterprises (Adani New Industries) NSE · IN
  • RELIANCE.NS Reliance Industries (New Energy, electrolyser giga-factory) NSE · IN
  • NTPCGREEN.NS NTPC Green Energy NSE · IN
  • ACMESOLAR.NS ACME Solar Holdings NSE · IN
  • FMG.AX Fortescue ASX · APAC
  • 2082.SR ACWA Power (NEOM Green Hydrogen partner) Tadawul · ME

Suppliers · 13

  • NEL.OL Nel ASA Oslo · EU
  • ITM.L ITM Power LSE AIM · EU
  • NCH2.DE thyssenkrupp nucera XETRA · EU
  • ENR.DE Siemens Energy XETRA · EU
  • CWR.L Ceres Power (SOEC/SOFC licensor) LSE · EU
  • PLUG Plug Power NASDAQ · US
  • BE Bloom Energy (SOEC/SOFC) NYSE · US
  • LT.NS Larsen & Toubro (electrolysers, EPC) NSE · IN
  • WAAREEENER.NS Waaree Energies (solar modules; electrolyser plans) NSE · IN
  • INOXINDIA.NS INOX India (cryogenic & H2 storage equipment) NSE · IN
  • ENGINERSIN.NS Engineers India (PMC for green H2/ammonia) NSE · IN
  • 300274.SZ Sungrow Power Supply (Sungrow Hydrogen) SZSE · APAC
  • 601012.SS LONGi Green Energy (LONGi Hydrogen) SSE · APAC

Consumers · 4

  • YAR.OL Yara International (green ammonia offtaker/marketer) Oslo · EU
  • CF CF Industries (low-carbon ammonia) NYSE · US
  • PARADEEP.NS Paradeep Phosphates (SECI green ammonia offtaker) NSE · IN
  • IOC.NS Indian Oil Corp (refinery green H2 tenders) NSE · IN

Proxys · 1

  • HYDR Global X Hydrogen ETF NASDAQ · US

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • LCOH (USD/kg) vs grey and vs subsidy-adjusted offtake price
  • System SEC (kWh/kg) and stack degradation (%/1,000 h)
  • Electrolyser capacity factor / availability
  • Installed capex (USD/kW) vs budget
  • Share of output under binding offtake
  • Grid connection date certainty (months of float)
  • Green ammonia cost (USD/t) vs grey import parity
  • RFNBO / GHG-intensity certification (kgCO2e/kg H2)
  • Subsidy capture (USD/kg: 45V, EHB premium, SIGHT INR/kg)
  • OEM backlog coverage & cash runway (supplier health)

Regional notes

IndiaThe National Green Hydrogen Mission targets 5 MMT/yr by 2030 with an INR 19,744 crore outlay (SIGHT INR 17,490 crore), though the IEA says the target may slip beyond 2030. SIGHT supports ~3 GW of domestic electrolyser manufacturing (Reliance, L&T, Adani, Ohmium, Avaada, Greenko-John Cockerill and others) plus production incentives. SECI's 2025 green ammonia auction cleared 724 ktpa for 13 fertilizer plants at INR 49.75-64.74/kg, with deals signed for over 90% by Mar 2026. Refinery BOO tenders cleared at INR 279-397/kg H2. AM Green won a EUR 585m H2Global export contract (Sep 2026), and the government is planning export tenders. Key constraints are ISTS/GNA grid connectivity, RE banking rules and offtaker credit. The Hormuz crisis (LNG at ~70% of fertilizer requirement in Mar 2026) strengthened the energy-security case.
United StatesOBBBA (Jul 2025) kept 45V but requires construction to begin before 1 Jan 2028, so FIDs and safe-harbour starts are concentrated in 2026-27. Hydrogen hub funding is uncertain. Many projects were cancelled or scaled back (Air Products' green and blue projects, Fortescue Arizona, CF's green H2 write-off), while e-fuels (Infinium Roadrunner with EH2) proceed. Cheap Henry Hub (~USD 3/MMBtu) favours blue over green. Transformer lead times are stretched by data-centre demand.
EuropeRED III targets 42% RFNBO in industrial H2 by 2030 (60% by 2035) plus transport sub-targets. BNEF expects the EU to meet only ~1/8 of the REPowerEU 10 Mt production goal. The EU Hydrogen Bank runs annual auctions (3rd: EUR 1.09bn, 1.1 GW, May 2026) but suffers high attrition. CBAM has covered hydrogen and fertilisers since 2026. ~2 GW is under construction, concentrated in a few projects (Stegra 700+ MW, Holland Hydrogen 1 200 MW, Normand'Hy). High TTF in 2026 (~USD 25/MMBtu in Sep) narrows the gap. Grid permitting is the top barrier. Western OEMs are restructuring.
Middle EastNEOM (2.2 GW, ~1.2 Mtpa ammonia) completed construction in 2026 on the Red Sea, with Yara marketing the output. Yanbu (4 GW) is in FEED, Oman (Duqm) projects are under development, and Sungrow supplied 160 MW for Oman ammonia. The Middle East holds ~10% of committed low-emissions H2, half of it reliant on Hormuz for export. The 2026 war raised insurance and logistics risk for Gulf-coast projects and favours Red Sea and Omani Arabian Sea sites.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 15

  • NEOM Green Hydrogen Company (ACWA Power / Air Products / NEOM) NEOM, Saudi Arabia · MEWorld's largest renewable H2 project: 2.2 GW thyssenkrupp nucera electrolysis, ~600 t/d H2, ~1.2 Mtpa NH3, ~USD 8.4bn. Construction was reported finished in Aug 2026, with Yara contracted to market the ammonia (Jul/Aug 2026). Its Red Sea location avoids Hormuz.
  • AM Green (Greenko founders) Hyderabad, India · INKakinada green ammonia (1 Mtpa phase plan) targeting an 85% capacity factor with pumped hydro. Won a EUR 585m, 10-year H2Global contract for ammonia to Germany (Sep 2026). Private.
  • ACME Solar / ACME Group Gurugram, India · INWon India's first SECI green ammonia auction (Jul 2025, Paradeep Phosphates supply). Has an Oman (Duqm) green ammonia project and Odisha projects.
  • Reliance Industries (New Energy) Mumbai, India · INJamnagar Giga Energy Complex with an electrolyser gigafactory (300 MW SIGHT allocation) and green H2 for the refinery. Rollout began in 2026.
  • Adani New Industries (Adani Enterprises) Ahmedabad, India · INIntegrated solar/wind, electrolyser manufacturing (SIGHT) and Kutch green H2/ammonia ambitions. Also an applicant for the coal-gasification scheme.
  • NTPC Green Energy / NTPC REL New Delhi, India · INWon the SECI green ammonia lot at INR 51.80/kg (70 ktpa, Aug 2025). Runs the Pudimadaka green H2 hub plan.
  • Avaada / Greenko / Jakson / Onix / Oriana Power India · INSECI 2025 green ammonia winners (Jakson INR 50.75/kg Kakinada 85 ktpa; Onix INR 52.50/kg 50 ktpa; Oriana ~USD 0.60/kg). Avaada and Greenko/John Cockerill hold SIGHT electrolyser allocations. Mostly private.
  • Shell (Holland Hydrogen 1) London, UK / Rotterdam, NL · EU200 MW Siemens Energy PEM. Weld-connected to the Rotterdam H2 network (Mar 2026) and expected to start late 2026, supplying the Pernis refinery.
  • Stegra Stockholm, Sweden · EU700+ MW electrolysis for H2-DRI green steel at Boden. Completed a USD 1.6bn raise (Jun 2026) but said in Sep 2026 it needs extra capital, which makes it the bellwether for Europe's 2026 additions.
  • Air Liquide (Normand'Hy) / Linde Paris / Woking · EUIndustrial-gas majors: Air Liquide's 200 MW Normand'Hy (Siemens Energy PEM). Linde focuses on EPC and selective low-carbon H2 for existing customers, with a disciplined backlog.
  • Air Products Allentown, Pennsylvania, USA · USRetrenching under new leadership: exited several US green H2 projects (2025) and cancelled the ~USD 8-9bn Louisiana blue complex (Jun 2026, up to USD 2.9bn charge). Keeps the NEOM offtake via Yara.
  • Plug Power Latham, New York, USA · USGeorgia/Tennessee/Louisiana liquid H2 plants and an electrolyser supplier (280 MW Danish e-jet deal, Sep 2026). Selling project sites and cancelled the Antwerp plant (Aug 2026). Cash-constrained.
  • Sinopec / Envision / China Energy (CHN Energy) China · APACKuqa (260 MW) and Ordos projects. Envision's Chifeng green ammonia (low-cost equipment). China installed about three-quarters of 2025 global additions and is on track for its 300 ktpa 2030 target by 2027.
  • Fortescue Perth, Australia · APACScrapped the Arizona Hydrogen and PEM50 Gladstone projects (Jul 2025) and repaid grants. A cautionary case of export-oriented GW-scale ambitions.
  • ATOME / Ørsted / BP (retreats) UK / Denmark / UK · EUATOME's Villeta (Paraguay) faces a power-deal dispute (Sep 2026). Ørsted cancelled FlagshipONE e-methanol (2024). BP flagged up to USD 5bn low-carbon impairments (Jan 2026) and exited the Australian Renewable Energy Hub (2025).

Suppliers · 15

  • thyssenkrupp nucera OEM · EUAlkaline (AWE) supplier for NEOM's 2.2 GW. Order intake surged but sales and EBIT fell, and it dropped SOEC mass-production and cut its FY2026 outlook (Aug 2026).
  • Siemens Energy OEM · EUPEM (Silyzer) with a Berlin gigafactory. Supplies Holland Hydrogen 1 and Normand'Hy, and also transformers and compressors.
  • Nel ASA OEM · EUAlkaline and PEM (Herøya). Launched a next-gen pressurised alkaline system at <USD 1,450/kW (May 2026). Q2 2026 posted a wider loss on high order intake.
  • ITM Power OEM · EUPEM (Sheffield). Alpha 50 module at ~USD 1,200/kW, with an order book of ~GBP 150m+ (2026).
  • John Cockerill Hydrogen OEM · EUPrivate (Belgium). Pressurised alkaline, with an India JV with Greenko (SIGHT allocation).
  • Sunfire OEM · EUPrivate (Germany). Pressurised alkaline HyLink (claims up to 50% lower installed cost) and SOEC.
  • Topsoe Licensor · EUPrivate (Denmark). SOEC factory at Herning plus ammonia-loop licensor for green ammonia (with KBR, Casale and thyssenkrupp Uhde as alternatives).
  • LONGi Hydrogen / Sungrow Hydrogen / PERIC / Envision OEM · APACChinese alkaline leaders with stack bids <USD 80/kW. Exports (>300 MW in 2025) include Sungrow's 160 MW for Oman ammonia and LONGi's first EU-compliant 5 MW. PERIC licenses Metacon in Europe.
  • Electric Hydrogen / Ohmium / Plug Power OEM · USUS PEM: EH2's 100 MW HYPRPlant targets ~USD 1,000/kW. Ohmium (private) has an India factory with a SIGHT allocation of ~137 MW.
  • Larsen & Toubro / Reliance / Adani (Indian electrolyser makers) OEM · INSIGHT-supported domestic electrolyser manufacturing of ~3 GW across two tranches (2024). L&T also does EPC for green H2/ammonia.
  • Bloom Energy OEM · USSolid-oxide electrolyser and fuel cells. Its growth is driven by data-centre onsite power (Brookfield USD 25bn framework), which competes for supply-chain capacity.
  • Hitachi Energy / Siemens Energy / GE Vernova / ABB OEM · EUHV transformers, thyristor/IGBT rectifiers and substations. Lead times of 2-4 years are a critical path.
  • Technip Energies / KBR / Casale / thyssenkrupp Uhde EPC · EUAmmonia/methanol loop licensing and EPC for green derivatives. Must handle variable H2 feed (turndown, buffer design).
  • Engineers India / Tata Projects / L&T EPC · INPMC/EPC for Indian refinery BOO electrolysers and SECI green ammonia projects.
  • INOX India / Chart Industries OEM · INCryogenic tanks, H2/ammonia storage and liquefaction equipment.

Customers · 6

  • Indian fertilizer makers (13 plants under SECI) fertilizer724 ktpa green ammonia contracted at INR 49.75-64.74/kg, with 11 companies signing for over 90% by Mar 2026 (Paradeep, Coromandel and others).
  • Refineries (EU RED III, India BOO tenders, US) refiningRED III requires 42% RFNBO share of industrial H2 by 2030. India refinery BOO tenders cleared at INR 279-397/kg H2. EU refineries could meet ~15% of H2 use with low-emissions H2 by 2030.
  • Green steel (Stegra, JSW Steel, Thyssenkrupp Steel, ArcelorMittal) steel / DRIThe H2-DRI cost gap is large (IEA: hydrogen would need near-zero cost for parity without carbon pricing). JSW commissioned 25 MW in India (Oct 2025), and ArcelorMittal shelved German H2-DRI (2025).
  • Shipping & aviation (Maersk, ReFuelEU obligated airlines) e-methanol / e-SAFReFuelEU synthetic sub-mandates begin in 2030 and the IMO net-zero framework is evolving. Danish e-jet projects are ordering electrolysers (Plug 280 MW).
  • Japanese / Korean power utilities power (co-firing, CfD)Japan's CfD awarded ~130 kt of low-emissions H2 across six winners. Korea cancelled a clean H2 power tender (Oct 2025).
  • German H2Global / EU importers (Yara, Uniper, RWE) import & tradingDouble-auction intermediary: AM Green's EUR 585m contract (Sep 2026). Yara markets NEOM ammonia.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
H100Site & resource assessment, land, water source and hybrid RE/storage optimisationDevelop · factors: Policy, Power price12%0.85 / 1 / 1.5
H110Offtake & subsidy award (SECI / EU Hydrogen Bank / H2Global / 45V qualification), binding SPA, permits (environment, water/desal, hazardous storage) and RFNBO/GHG certification designDevelop · factors: Policy, Interest rates22%0.8 / 1 / 2
H120Renewable PPA / captive RE development and grid interconnection application (queue)Develop · factors: Grid queue, Power price, Policy25%0.85 / 1 / 1.9
H200Electrolyser OEM selection, ammonia/methanol loop licensing (Topsoe/KBR/Casale/Uhde) and FEEDEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour, Electrical equipment, Interest rates12%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
H210Detailed engineering & dynamic-operation integration (buffer sizing, turndown)Engineer · EPC · factors: Labour20%0.9 / 1 / 1.35
H300Long-lead: electrolyser stacks & BoP skids (gas treatment, lye/water systems)Procure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Steel, Policy30%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
H310Long-lead: HV transformers, rectifiers & substationProcure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Copper, Data-centre demand38%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
H320Long-lead: ASU, H2/syngas compressors, ammonia converter, refrigeration & storage tanksProcure · OEM · factors: Steel, Electrical equipment, Labour32%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
H400Renewables build (solar/wind/BESS or pumped hydro) & dedicated transmission lineConstruct · EPC · factors: Steel, Labour, Copper, Aluminium35%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
H410Civil works, electrolyser hall, BoP installation & electrical integrationConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Labour, Copper30%0.9 / 1 / 1.45
H420Derivative unit construction: ammonia/methanol loop, storage and export jettyConstruct · EPC · factors: Steel, Labour, Construction materials30%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
H500Grid energisation & pre-commissioning (rectifier tests, leak tests, inerting)Commission · EPC · factors: Grid queue, Labour6%0.9 / 1 / 1.7
H510Commissioning: stack conditioning, first hydrogen, first ammonia/methanolCommission · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Labour6%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
H520Ramp-up, performance test (SEC, availability) & RFNBO/45V certification of outputCommission · factors: Policy, Power price8%0.9 / 1 / 1.9

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Electrolyser stacks18%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 40%
    • Steel 30%
  • Balance of plant (gas purification, water treatment, cooling, H2 compression)17%
    Equipment
    • Steel 50%
    • Electrical equipment 20%
  • Power electronics: transformers, rectifiers, substation14%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 60%
    • Copper 30%
    • Steel 10%
  • Derivative synthesis (ammonia/methanol loop, ASU)14%
    Equipment
    • Steel 60%
    • Electrical equipment 20%
  • Civil, buildings, installation & construction labour13%
    Construction
    • Construction materials 50%
    • Labour 40%
    • Copper 10%
  • Development, contingency & IDC10%
    Indirects
  • Engineering, PMC & owner's costs8%
    Engineering
  • Storage (H2 buffer, NH3/methanol tanks) & export interface6%
    Construction
    • Steel 70%
    • Construction materials 20%

Financial template

Revenue model

Long-term take-or-pay offtake for H2 or derivatives (green ammonia/e-methanol), priced at a fixed or indexed USD/kg or USD/t (SECI 10-year ammonia contracts, refinery BOO H2 at INR/kg, H2Global double-auction purchase). Revenue is topped up by production subsidies (US 45V up to USD 3/kg for 10 years, EU Hydrogen Bank fixed premium EUR/kg for 10 years, India SIGHT INR/kg), plus RFNBO compliance value (RED III quotas, ReFuelEU, FuelEU Maritime) and by-product oxygen/grid services. Main costs are renewable power (PPA), stack replacement and O&M.

Margin driver

Levelised cost of renewable hydrogen

Ramp-up

2 years to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a green hydrogen & derivatives decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 17 parameters, 12 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are policy, electrical equipment, interest rates and grid queue. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 16 price feeds and 27 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Policy
  • Electrical equipment
  • Interest rates
  • Grid queue
  • Gas
  • Labour
  • Power price
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Steel27.9%
  • Electrical equipment21.8%
  • Construction materials7.7%
  • Copper5.5%
  • Labour5.2%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. iea.blob.core.windows.nethttps://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/af4b6218-0311-4963-91ab-903cb18ca0ca/GlobalHydrogenReview2026.pdf
  2. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2026/executive-summary
  3. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2026/investment-and-innovation
  4. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2026/production
  5. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2026/policy
  6. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2025/executive-summary
  7. pv-magazine.comhttps://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/05/07/eu-allocates-1-1-gw-of-electrolyzer-capacity-in-third-hydrogen-auction-lowest-bid-comes-in-at-e0-44-kg/
  8. mnre.gov.inhttps://mnre.gov.in/en/national-green-hydrogen-mission/
  9. mercomindia.comhttps://www.mercomindia.com/onix-renewable-wins-secis-50000-tpa-green-ammonia-auction
  10. congress.govhttps://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1
  11. irs.govhttps://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/clean-hydrogen-production-credit
  12. eur-lex.europa.euhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2023/2413/oj
  13. about.bnef.comhttps://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/no-iran-war-wont-boost-clean-hydrogen-except-in-china/
  14. ieefa.orghttps://ieefa.org/resources/headwinds-sink-air-productsyara-blue-hydrogen-project
  15. ieefa.orghttps://ieefa.org/resources/indias-petrochemical-industry-and-realities-fragile-supply-chain
  16. taxation-customs.ec.europa.euhttps://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en
  17. thedocs.worldbank.orghttps://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx
  18. pages.stern.nyu.eduhttps://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/wacc.html

Bring us one real decision in green hydrogen & derivatives.

We start it from the Green hydrogen & derivatives pack v1.0.0: 17 parameters, 12 swing factors and the 14-step project template, pinned to your decision.

Talk to us →