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Industry brief · Materials, infrastructure & industry

Iron & steelBF-BOF, DRI-EAF, green steel

Integrated (blast furnace / basic oxygen furnace) and electric (gas- or coal-based DRI, scrap EAF) steelmaking, plus near-zero routes using hydrogen DRI. India is the main growth market (National Steel Policy target 300 Mtpa by 2030-31), the US is re-shoring behind 50% Section 232 tariffs, and the EU is decarbonising under ETS/CBAM (definitive since 1 Jan 2026). Projects are multi-year, OEM-heavy and highly exposed to raw-material spreads, power/gas prices and trade policy.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
11 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%2.5%5%10%15%20%Probability →Cost impact →Hydrogen / renewable-power availability and cost for H2-DRI: 50% likely, 15% cost impact, 12 monthsLand acquisition, forest/environmental clearance and local opposition: 35% likely, 6% cost impact, 9 monthsGrid connection / power evacuation for large EAF or electrolyser load: 30% likely, 3% cost impact, 9 monthsOEM long-lead equipment delay (BF/DRI shaft, EAF, caster, hot strip mill): 40% likely, 5% cost impact, 6 monthsCommissioning & ramp-up underperformance (blow-in, refractory, automation): 30% likely, 4% cost impact, 6 monthsSkilled labour shortage & contractor productivity: 35% likely, 4% cost impact, 4 monthsNatural gas / LNG supply disruption for gas-DRI: 30% likely, 3% cost impact, 3 monthsFinancing cost increase / tighter credit: 40% likely, 5% cost impact, 3 monthsConstruction material & structural steel inflation: 45% likely, 6% cost impact, 2 monthsRaw-material spread compression during ramp-up (ore/coal up, HRC down): 40% likely, 3% cost impact, 0 monthsTrade-policy reversal (tariffs, safeguards, CBAM benchmarks): 50% likely, 2% cost impact, 0 monthsHydrogenConstruction material &…Land acquisition,…

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 19 cited sources · 15 parameters · 11 swing factors · 1 source conflict shown side by side.

At a glance

1,000Capex intensity · USD per tpa crude steelrange 550–3,000 · estimate
42Construction time · monthsrange 28–60 · estimate
24%Mean cost overrunrange 5%–60% · sourced
37%Mean schedule overrunrange 0%–100% · sourced

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
Integrated BF-BOF steel plantCoke ovens/sinter/pellet + blast furnace + BOF + casting + hot strip / long mills.600–2,500USD per tpa crude steelIndia brownfield ~USD 600-700/tpa (Tata Steel Kalinganagar +5 Mtpa for INR 27,000 cr, May 2025); India greenfield ~USD 900-1,200/tpa; US/EU greenfield USD 1,800-2,500/tpa (estimate).
Gas-based DRI + EAFMidrex/HYL-Energiron shaft furnace on natural gas feeding an EAF; hydrogen-ready designs.800–2,200USD per tpa crude steelHyundai Steel's Louisiana DRI-EAF (2.7 Mtpa, ~USD 5.8bn announced 2025) sits at the top of the range (estimate).
Coal-based DRI (rotary kiln) + induction/EAFIndia's secondary sector; India is the world's largest DRI producer.300–600USD per tpa crude steelLow capex, high CO2 (~2.5-3.1 tCO2/t, estimate). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_reduced_iron
Scrap-based EAF mini-millFlat or long products from scrap/pig iron/DRI blends.500–1,300USD per tpa crude steelUS flat-rolled mini-mills (Nucor WV, Steel Dynamics Sinton) ~USD 1,000-1,200/tpa (estimate).
Hydrogen DRI green steelElectrolyser + H2 shaft furnace + EAF with renewable PPA; e.g. Stegra (Boden), HYBRIT, thyssenkrupp Duisburg DRI.1,800–3,200USD per tpa crude steelElectrolyser and power infrastructure dominate; several EU projects paused or re-scoped 2025-26 (estimate).
Downstream rolling, coating & pipesCRM, galvanising/colour-coating, electrical steel (CRGO/CRNO), pipes.250–900USD per tpa productElectrical steel lines at the high end (estimate).

Value chain

Inputs

  • iron ore fines/lump/pellets
  • coking coal & PCI
  • natural gas or hydrogen
  • ferrous scrap
  • limestone/dolomite
  • ferro-alloys
  • graphite electrodes
  • industrial oxygen
  • electricity
  • refractories

Process

  • beneficiation & pelletising
  • coke making
  • sintering
  • blast furnace ironmaking
  • direct reduction (shaft/rotary kiln)
  • BOF / EAF steelmaking
  • secondary metallurgy (LF/VD)
  • continuous casting
  • hot rolling
  • cold rolling, annealing & coating

Outputs

  • HRC/CRC & coated flats
  • rebar, wire rod & structurals
  • plates
  • electrical steel
  • pipes & tubes
  • slag (to cement)
  • by-product gases & power

Parameters

15 parameters: 3 sourced, 12 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensityDefault = India greenfield integrated; brownfield datapoint: Tata Steel Kalinganagar +5 Mtpa for INR 27,000 cr (~USD 615/tpa) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_Steel1,000 USD per tpa crude steelrange 550–3,000estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Construction monthsMoSPI steel-ministry projects: median planned duration ~31 months (Capibud parse of QPISR Q1 FY26).42 monthsrange 28–60estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Cost overrun mean sources disagreeMoSPI Q1 FY2025-26: 20 Ministry of Steel projects, original INR 16,297 cr vs anticipated INR 20,229 cr (+24.1%).24%range 5%–60%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in
Schedule overrun meanCapibud parse of QPISR Q1 FY26 project list: steel n=13, 38% delayed, mean delay = 37% of planned duration.37%range 0%–100%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in
Asset life (years)Blast furnace campaigns 15-20 years between relines; plant economic life 30-50 years.40 yearsrange 30–50estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
WACCIndia nominal; India 10Y G-sec 6.78% (Jul 2026, FRED INDIRLTLT01STM) + equity/credit premia. US ~0.09-0.10 with 10Y at 5.24% (Oct 2026).11%range 8.5%–13%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Typical IRR14%range 7%–20%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
UtilizationArcelorMittal 2025: 55.6 Mt produced on 74.6 Mt capacity (75%); Indian majors run 80-90% (estimate).80%range 65%–92%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026en.wikipedia.org
Opex % of revenue82%range 72%–92%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
EBITDA marginCycle-average for integrated producers; Cleveland-Cliffs posted a USD 1.43bn net loss on USD 18.6bn revenue in 2025 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland-Cliffs).15%range 6%–25%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
CO2 intensity BF BOF2.2 tCO2 per t crude steelrange 1.8–2.6estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
CO2 intensity H2 DRI EAF0.3 tCO2 per t crude steelrange 0.05–0.6estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
EAF power kWh per t450 kWh/t liquid steelrange 380–600estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
H2 per t DRI55 kg H2 per t DRIrange 50–65estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Ramp up (months)18 monthsrange 9–36estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source

Where sources disagree

Kept side by side, not averaged. The pack default is in the table above.

Cost overrun mean

Indian monitoring data vs the default; same source family, different vintages possible.

24.1%anticipated vs originalMoSPI Q1 FY2025-26 (Ministry of Steel, 20 projects) · 2025-06

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
Hydrogen / renewable-power availability and cost for H2-DRITechnical Shared factors: Power price 0.5 · Grid queue 0.3 · Policy 0.3Watch: electrolyser order cancellations; PPA prices; state-aid decisions
50%
15%
12 mo
Construction material & structural steel inflationCommodity Shared factors: Construction materials 0.5 · Steel 0.4 · Labour 0.1Watch: FRED WPUSI012011 (+10.1% y/y Aug 2026); FRED WPU1017 (+23% y/y)
45%
6%
2 mo
Land acquisition, forest/environmental clearance and local oppositionRegulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.7 · Labour 0.1Watch: EAC meeting deferrals; state rehabilitation disputes; court stays
35%
6%
9 mo
OEM long-lead equipment delay (BF/DRI shaft, EAF, caster, hot strip mill)Supply chain Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.5 · Steel 0.3 · Labour 0.1Watch: OEM order-book backlogs (SMS, Danieli, Primetals); factory acceptance test slippage; freight rates on heavy-lift cargo
40%
5%
6 mo
Financing cost increase / tighter creditFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.8 · Policy 0.1Watch: US 10Y > 5%; India 10Y; steel sector CDS / bond spreads
40%
5%
3 mo
Skilled labour shortage & contractor productivityLabour Shared factors: Labour 0.8Watch: welder/fitter wage inflation; contractor manpower deployment vs plan
35%
4%
4 mo
Commissioning & ramp-up underperformance (blow-in, refractory, automation)Technical Shared factors: Labour 0.4 · Electrical equipment 0.3Watch: hot-metal rate vs design; unplanned stoppages; coke rate
30%
4%
6 mo
Raw-material spread compression during ramp-up (ore/coal up, HRC down)Commodity Shared factors: Steel 0.6 · Oil 0.1Watch: HRC futures vs ore/coal; China export volumes; safeguard reviews
40%
3%
0 mo
Trade-policy reversal (tariffs, safeguards, CBAM benchmarks)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.8 · Steel 0.3Watch: s232 proclamations; EU safeguard successor regime; DGTR safeguard findings
50%
2%
0 mo
Grid connection / power evacuation for large EAF or electrolyser loadInterface Shared factors: Grid queue 0.7 · Power price 0.2Watch: transmission utility connection offers; substation equipment lead times
30%
3%
9 mo
Natural gas / LNG supply disruption for gas-DRIGeopolitical Shared factors: Gas 0.7 · Oil 0.3Watch: Strait of Hormuz transits; JKM/TTF LNG prices; war-risk insurance premia
30%
3%
3 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
Hot-rolled coil price (US Midwest)~USD 10/t HRC move shifts EBITDA by roughly 1-1.5 pp of margin for a flat producer (estimate).650–1,400USD/short tonRevenue
Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China~1.6 t ore per t hot metal; +USD 10/t ore ≈ +USD 16/t cost.80–160USD/dmtOpex
Coal price (Australia, thermal proxy for coking coal trend)~0.75-0.8 t coking coal per t hot metal; coking coal trades at a premium to this proxy.100–400USD/tOpex
US PPI steel mill productsTracks realised US flat/long prices and structural steel in capex estimates.250–420indexRevenue, Capex
Natural gas (Henry Hub)Gas-DRI uses ~10-11 GJ/t DRI; +USD 1/MMBtu ≈ +USD 10/t DRI (estimate).2–9USD/MMBtuOpex
Industrial electricity priceEAF ~400-500 kWh/t; H2-DRI route ~3.5-4 MWh/t incl. electrolysis (estimate).280–360indexOpex
Steel spread (HRC minus raw-material basket)Primary margin driver; computed from HRC, ore and coal feeds.200–650USD/tRevenue, Opex
Capacity utilisationArcelorMittal ran ~75% in 2025 (55.6 of 74.6 Mt).65%–92%Revenue
Show 3 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
EU ETS / CBAM carbon costBF-BOF ~1.9-2.3 tCO2/t; free allocation phases out 2026-2034 as CBAM phases in.60–130EUR/tCO2Opex, Revenue
Import tariff / safeguard levelUS s232 50% (June 2025); India safeguard duty on flats (2025); EU safeguard/quota regime.0%–50%Revenue
Long-term rates (US 10Y / India 10Y)+100 bp lifts WACC ~60-80 bp for a 50-60% debt-funded project.3–7.5Financing

Price feeds (16)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Global price of iron orePIORECRUSDMFREDUSD/dmtmonthly
Global price of coal, AustraliaPCOALAUUSDMFREDUSD/tmonthly
PPI: steel mill productsWPU1017FREDindex 1982=100monthly
PPI: iron and steelWPU101FREDindex 1982=100monthly
PPI: hot rolled steel sheet & stripPCU3311103311105FREDindexmonthly
PPI: construction materialsWPUSI012011FREDindex 1982=100monthly
Henry Hub natural gas spotDHHNGSPFREDUSD/MMBtudaily
PPI: industrial electric powerWPU0543FREDindexmonthly
Show 8 more feeds
SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
US 10-year Treasury yieldDGS10FRED%daily
India 10-year government bond yieldINDIRLTLT01STMFRED%monthly
US Midwest HRC futures (CME)HRC=FYahooUSD/short tondaily
Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China futuresTIO=FYahooUSD/dmtdaily
NIFTY Metal index^CNXMETALYahooindexdaily
VanEck Steel ETFSLXYahooUSDdaily
EU ETS carbon allowance (EUA)ICE:EUA front-monthotherEUR/tCO2daily
India WPI: basic metals / mild steelOEA:WPI-basic-metalsotherindexmonthly

Listed tickers (18)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 14

  • TATASTEEL.NS Tata Steel NSE · IN
  • JSWSTEEL.NS JSW Steel NSE · IN
  • SAIL.NS Steel Authority of India NSE · IN
  • JINDALSTEL.NS Jindal Steel NSE · IN
  • LLOYDSME.NS Lloyds Metals & Energy NSE · IN
  • NUE Nucor NYSE · US
  • STLD Steel Dynamics NASDAQ · US
  • CLF Cleveland-Cliffs NYSE · US
  • MT ArcelorMittal NYSE · EU
  • TKA.DE thyssenkrupp XETRA · EU
  • SZG.DE Salzgitter XETRA · EU
  • SSAB-B.ST SSAB Nasdaq Stockholm · EU
  • VOE.VI voestalpine Wiener Börse · EU
  • 5401.T Nippon Steel (owner of U.S. Steel) TSE · APAC

Suppliers · 4

  • NMDC.NS NMDC (iron ore) NSE · IN
  • HEG.NS HEG (graphite electrodes) NSE · IN
  • LIN Linde (industrial gases) NYSE · US
  • DAN.MI Danieli (OEM) Borsa Italiana · EU

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • crude steel capacity utilisation (%)
  • EBITDA per tonne
  • conversion cost per tonne
  • hot-metal fuel rate (kg/thm)
  • tCO2 per t crude steel
  • liquid-to-finished yield (%)
  • specific power (kWh/t)
  • capex per tpa
  • net debt / EBITDA
  • raw-material inventory days
  • LTIFR

Regional notes

IndiaFastest-growing major market; ~150+ Mt crude output and capacity heading to 300 Mtpa by 2030-31. Coal-DRI-heavy secondary sector, captive ore advantage, coking coal import dependence. Safeguard duty on flat imports (2025) and Green Steel Taxonomy (Dec 2024). MoSPI shows +18-24% cost overrun on central steel projects.
United StatesEAF share ~70% (estimate); new flat-rolled mini-mills and DRI; 50% s232 tariffs support prices but raise equipment/structural costs; Nippon-U.S. Steel deal closed June 2025.
EuropeDecarbonisation via DRI-EAF backed by state aid, but several H2-DRI projects slowed in 2025-26 on hydrogen/power cost; CBAM definitive from 2026; import safeguard regime tightening; high gas price exposure after the 2026 Gulf war.
Middle EastGas-based DRI hubs (Saudi, Oman, UAE) targeting low-carbon HBI exports to Europe; Gulf energy infrastructure exposed to 2026 Iran war disruption.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 16

  • Tata Steel Mumbai · INKalinganagar expanded 3→8 Mtpa (May 2025, INR 27,000 cr); Port Talbot (UK) EAF conversion.
  • JSW Steel Mumbai · INLargest Indian producer; Vijayanagar ~12 Mtpa single site; capacity target ~50 Mtpa by FY31 (estimate).
  • Steel Authority of India (SAIL) New Delhi · INState-owned; Bhilai, Bokaro, Rourkela, Durgapur, Burnpur; IISCO expansion planned.
  • ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India Hazira · INHazira expansion to ~15 Mtpa; greenfield plans in Andhra Pradesh (estimate).
  • Jindal Steel (JSPL) New Delhi · INAngul coal-gasification DRI + BF; expansion to ~15.9 Mtpa (estimate).
  • Nucor Charlotte, NC · USLargest US producer (EAF); West Virginia sheet mill under construction.
  • Steel Dynamics Fort Wayne, IN · USSinton TX flat-rolled EAF; aluminium rolling diversification.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Cleveland, OH · USIntegrated BF-BOF; 2025 net loss USD 1.43bn; idled Dearborn partially (Mar 2025).
  • U.S. Steel (Nippon Steel) Pittsburgh, PA · USAcquired by Nippon Steel on 18 June 2025 with US 'golden share'; committed new investments (estimate ~USD 11bn by 2028).
  • Hyundai Steel Seoul · APACAnnounced Louisiana DRI-EAF mill (~2.7 Mtpa) in 2025 (estimate).
  • ArcelorMittal Luxembourg · EU2025: 74.6 Mt capacity, 55.6 Mt produced, revenue USD 61.4bn; scaled back EU H2-DRI plans (estimate).
  • thyssenkrupp Steel Europe Duisburg · EUDuisburg H2-ready DRI (2.5 Mtpa) under construction with state aid (estimate).
  • Salzgitter Salzgitter · EUSALCOS staged DRI-EAF transformation (estimate).
  • SSAB Stockholm · EUHYBRIT partner; Oxelösund EAF conversion (estimate).
  • voestalpine Linz · EUgreentec steel: EAFs at Linz/Donawitz from 2027 (estimate).
  • Stegra (ex-H2 Green Steel) Stockholm · EUBoden integrated H2-DRI-EAF; financing strain reported 2025 (estimate).

Suppliers · 13

  • SMS group (incl. Paul Wurth) OEM · EUBF, BOF/EAF, casters, rolling mills; DRI via Midrex partnership.
  • Danieli OEM · EUMini-mills, Energiron DRI (with Tenova), rolling.
  • Primetals Technologies (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) OEM · APACIntegrated plant equipment, HYFOR hydrogen fines reduction.
  • Midrex Technologies (Kobe Steel) Licensor · USDominant gas-DRI shaft technology (~60%+ of world DRI, estimate).
  • Tenova HYL / Energiron Licensor · EUAlternative DRI technology; hydrogen-ready.
  • MECON EPC · INIndian PSU engineering consultant for SAIL/RINL expansions.
  • Larsen & Toubro (Minerals & Metals) EPC · INBF, coke-oven and sinter EPC in India.
  • Linde / Air Products / INOX Air Materials · USOxygen/nitrogen plants (BOO), hydrogen supply.
  • HEG / Graphite India / GrafTech Materials · INGraphite electrodes for EAF.
  • NMDC / Vale / Rio Tinto / BHP Materials · INIron ore supply; Simandou (Guinea) began exports Dec 2025, up to 95 Mtpa at full rate.
  • Coal India / BHP Mitsubishi Alliance / Teck-Glencore (EVR) Materials · APACCoking coal; India imports ~85% of coking coal (estimate).
  • RHI Magnesita Materials · EURefractories.
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera / John Cockerill OEM · EUElectrolysers for H2-DRI.

Customers · 6

  • Construction & infrastructure rebar, structurals, platesLargest end use in India (~60%+ of demand, estimate).
  • Automotive OEMs flat (CRC, coated, AHSS)Maruti, Tata, M&M, GM, Ford, VW; affected by US auto tariffs.
  • Capital goods & machinery plates, sectionsIndustrial capex cycle.
  • Energy & pipelines line pipe, wind towers, transmission towersGrid and renewables build-out.
  • Railways & defence rails, wheels, armour plateIndian Railways capex; shipbuilding.
  • Consumer durables/appliances coated & electrical steelUS s232 derivatives extended to appliances (June 2025).

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
A100Site, raw-material linkage (ore/coal/gas) & land acquisitionDevelop · factors: Policy12%0.9 / 1 / 1.8
A200Environmental, forest & consent-to-establish clearancesDevelop · factors: Policy10%0.9 / 1 / 1.7
A300Technology selection & licensor basic engineering (BF/DRI, BOF/EAF)Engineer · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment8%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
A400Detailed engineering & FEED close-outEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour12%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
A500Long-lead procurement: furnace, converters, caster, rolling mill, transformersProcure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Steel22%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
A600Site grading, piling & heavy foundationsConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Labour12%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
A700Raw-material handling, coke ovens / pellet / sinter plantsConstruct · EPC · factors: Steel, Construction materials, Labour16%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
A800Ironmaking unit erection (blast furnace or DRI module)Construct · OEM · factors: Steel, Labour20%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
A900Steel melt shop (BOF/EAF) & continuous castingConstruct · OEM · factors: Steel, Electrical equipment, Labour16%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
A1000Hot strip / bar & wire rod mill erectionConstruct · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Labour15%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
A1100Power, oxygen plant, water & grid interconnectionConstruct · EPC · factors: Electrical equipment, Grid queue, Copper14%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
A1200Cold commissioning, blow-in & hot trialsCommission · OEM · factors: Labour6%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
A1300Ramp-up to rated capacity & performance guarantee testsCommission · factors: Labour, Power price10%0.8 / 1 / 1.8

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Ironmaking (BF or DRI, coke ovens, sinter/pellet)28%
    Equipment
    • Steel 40%
    • Electrical equipment 20%
  • Rolling & finishing mills16%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 40%
    • Steel 30%
  • Civil, structural & buildings16%
    Construction
    • Construction materials 50%
    • Steel 40%
  • Steelmaking (BOF/EAF) & continuous casting14%
    Equipment
    • Steel 30%
    • Electrical equipment 30%
    • Copper 5%
  • Utilities: power, oxygen, water, grid connection8%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 50%
    • Grid queue 20%
    • Copper 10%
  • Erection & site labour7%
    Labour
    • Labour 100%
  • Land, owner's costs & interest during construction5%
    Develop
    • Interest rates 60%
    • Policy 20%
  • Engineering, licensor & PMC fees4%
    Engineering
    • Labour 50%
  • Commissioning, spares & first fills2%
    Commissioning
    • Steel 20%

Financial template

Revenue model

Sale of finished steel (flat/long/plate) priced off HRC/rebar benchmarks; margin = steel spread over iron ore, coking coal (or gas/H2) and scrap, less conversion cost; carbon cost/CBAM pass-through in EU.

Margin driver

Steel spread (HRC minus raw-material basket)

Ramp-up

2 years to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a iron & steel decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 15 parameters, 11 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are policy, power price, grid queue and labour. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 16 price feeds and 18 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Policy
  • Power price
  • Grid queue
  • Labour
  • Steel
  • Electrical equipment
  • Interest rates
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Steel27%
  • Electrical equipment20.2%
  • Labour9%
  • Construction materials8%
  • Interest rates3%
  • Grid queue1.6%
  • Copper1.5%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU1017
  2. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU101
  3. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIORECRUSDM
  4. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOALAUUSDM
  5. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
  6. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDIRLTLT01STM
  7. paimana-proj.mospi.gov.inhttps://paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in/Content/ArchiveReport/quarterly/2025-26/QPISR_QR_1st_2025-26.pdf
  8. paimana-proj.mospi.gov.inhttps://paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in/Content/ArchiveReport/flash/2025-26/FlashReport_March_2026.pdf
  9. arxiv.orghttps://arxiv.org/abs/2606.15757
  10. taxation-customs.ec.europa.euhttps://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en
  11. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration
  12. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
  13. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_Steel
  14. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ArcelorMittal
  15. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland-Cliffs
  16. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Steel
  17. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simandou_mine
  18. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_and_steel_industry_in_India
  19. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_reduced_iron

Cited without a link

  • MoSPI Q1 FY2025-26 (Ministry of Steel, 20 projects)

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