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Industry brief · Power & digital

Nuclear powerlarge LWR/PHWR, SMRs, restarts and life extensions

Firm zero-carbon baseload from large light-water (AP1000, EPR, VVER, APR1400) and Indian PHWR-700 reactors, fast breeders (PFBR), small modular reactors (BWRX-300, NuScale, Natrium, Bharat Small Reactors) plus restarts and uprates of existing units. The asset class has the worst cost/schedule overrun record in the power sector (mean ~117%), so FOAK risk, regulatory licensing, heavy-forging supply and financing structure (RAB, CfD, government equity, hyperscaler PPAs) dominate capital outcomes.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
10 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%5%10%20%30%40%Probability →Cost impact →FOAK design maturity and rework: 55% likely, 35% cost impact, 30 monthsEPC/vendor insolvency or contract dispute: 20% likely, 25% cost impact, 24 monthsLicensing and regulatory delay: 40% likely, 10% cost impact, 18 monthsCraft labour productivity and QA failures: 50% likely, 20% cost impact, 18 monthsHeavy forging and nuclear-grade component bottleneck: 35% likely, 8% cost impact, 12 monthsFuel supply and enrichment (Russian ban, HALEU scarcity): 30% likely, 2% cost impact, 12 monthsPublic opposition / liability law constraints: 20% likely, 5% cost impact, 12 monthsGrid integration and large-unit interconnection: 20% likely, 3% cost impact, 6 monthsFinancing cost escalation / interest during construction: 40% likely, 15% cost impact, 0 monthsOfftake / market price risk for merchant capacity: 20% likely, 0% cost impact, 0 monthsFOAK design maturity and…Financing cost escalation

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 19 cited sources · 13 parameters · 10 swing factors.

At a glance

9,000Capex intensity · USD/kW (global blended; India PHWR ~1,600, US/EU 8,000-17,000)range 1,500–17,600 · sourced
96Construction time · monthsrange 60–216 · sourced
117%Mean cost overrunrange 20%–300% · sourced
90%Mean schedule overrunrange 20%–250% · sourced

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
Large LWR (AP1000, EPR/EPR2, APR1400, VVER-1200)1,000-1,650 MWe Gen III+ units built in pairs/fleets; US Vogtle 3&4, France Flamanville 3 and EPR2, UK Hinkley Point C / Sizewell C, Czech Dukovany II (KHNP), India Kudankulam 3-6 (VVER).2,100–17,600USD per kWRange spans India VVER (~Rs 20-25 crore/MW = USD 2,100-2,600/kW, Kudankulam 3-6) to US Vogtle-based USD 12,300-17,570/kW (Lazard LCOE+ 2026). EIA AEO2026 LWR overnight USD 8,255/kW (2025$).
Indian PHWR-700 fleet modeIndigenous 700 MWe pressurised heavy water reactors built in fleet mode by NPCIL (Kakrapar 3&4, RAPP 7&8, Gorakhpur, Kaiga 5&6, Mahi Banswara, Chutka).1,500–2,100USD per kWFleet of 10 x 700 MW sanctioned 2017 at ~Rs 1.05 lakh crore (~Rs 15 crore/MW); Mahi Banswara 4x700 MW ~Rs 42,000 crore. USD at INR 95.8 - estimate.
Small modular reactors (LW-SMR 50-470 MWe)Factory-fabricated light-water SMRs: GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 (OPG Darlington, TVA Clinch River), NuScale/ENTRA1 77 MWe modules, Rolls-Royce SMR 470 MWe, Holtec SMR-300, India's BSR-220 and BSMR-200.8,000–20,000USD per kWOPG Darlington FID May 2025: C$7.7bn for unit 1 (incl. shared infrastructure) and C$13.2bn for units 2-4 (~USD 12,000-18,000/kW). EIA AEO2026 SMR USD 9,831/kW. NuScale UAMPS cancelled at USD 9.3bn for 462 MWe (~USD 20,000/kW).
Advanced non-LWR (sodium-fast, HTGR, molten salt, microreactors)TerraPower Natrium (345 MWe SFR + salt storage), X-energy Xe-100 (Dow, Amazon), Kairos Hermes (Google), Oklo Aurora, India PFBR 500 MWe (first criticality Apr-2026).10,000–25,000USD per kWFOAK; PFBR cost rose to Rs 8,181 crore for 500 MWe (~USD 1,700/kW nominal, multi-decade). Western FOAK estimates are estimate-grade.
Restarts, uprates and long-term operationReturning shut units to service (Palisades, Crane/TMI-1, Duane Arnold), power uprates and 60-80 year licence extensions incl. steam-generator and turbine replacement.500–2,200USD per kWCrane (835 MW) restart ~USD 1.6bn (~USD 1,900/kW); Palisades restart backed by USD 1.52bn DOE loan; uprates USD 1,000-2,000/kW - estimate.

Value chain

Inputs

  • uranium (U3O8)
  • conversion and enrichment (SWU), HALEU for advanced reactors
  • fuel fabrication
  • heavy forgings (RPV, steam generators)
  • nuclear-grade concrete and rebar
  • safety-class valves, pumps, I&C
  • turbine-generator islands
  • licensed workforce and QA (NQA-1 / AERB)

Process

  • site permit / ESP and environmental review
  • construction licence (NRC Part 50/52/53, AERB, ONR, ASN)
  • nuclear island civil and module construction
  • conventional island and BOP
  • cold/hot functional testing
  • fuel load and first criticality
  • power ascension and commercial operation
  • operations, refuelling outages, spent fuel management

Outputs

  • baseload electricity (90%+ capacity factor)
  • firm capacity and clean-energy attributes
  • process heat/steam (industrial, desalination, hydrogen)
  • isotopes
  • spent fuel and decommissioning liabilities

Parameters

13 parameters: 9 sourced, 4 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensity(global blended; India PHWR ~1,600, US/EU 8,000-17,000)9,000 USD/kWrange 1,500–17,600sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026eia.gov lazard.com
Construction months96 monthsrange 60–216sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com en.wikipedia.org
Cost overrun mean117%range 20%–300%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026doi.org
Schedule overrun mean90%range 20%–250%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Asset life (years)60 yearsrange 40–80sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com
WACC8%range 5%–11%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026RAB/government-backed 5-7%; merchant/FOAK 9-11%
Typical IRR(equity)10%range 7%–14%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026regulated utility ROE ~9.5-10.5%; Sizewell C RAB allowed return ~low double digits
Utilization(capacity factor)90%range 75%–95%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com
Opex % of revenue40%range 30%–55%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026fixed O&M USD 136-158/kW-yr + fuel ~USD 6-9/MWh vs USD 80-100/MWh revenue
EBITDA margin50%range 35%–65%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Constellation/NPCIL operating margins
Fixed O&M (USD per kW-yr)150 USD/kW-yrrange 107–165sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026eia.gov
Fuel cost (USD per MMBtu)0.85 USD/MMBturange 0.64–1.06sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com
LCOE (USD per MWh)(US new-build, unsubsidised)215 USD/MWhrange 175–255sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
FOAK design maturity and reworkTechnical Shared factors: Labour 0.4 · Electrical equipment 0.2 · Policy 0.2 · Steel 0.2Watch: % design complete at FCD; engineering change notices per month; module fabrication non-conformances
55%
35%
30 mo
Craft labour productivity and QA failuresLabour Shared factors: Labour 0.8 · Data-centre demand 0.2Watch: direct-labour hours per installed quantity; craft attrition; QA hold points/NCRs (Vogtle-type)
50%
20%
18 mo
Financing cost escalation / interest during constructionFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.9 · Policy 0.1Watch: 10Y yields (US/IN/DE); DOE LPO / state guarantee availability; credit ratings of sponsor utilities
40%
15%
0 mo
EPC/vendor insolvency or contract disputeInterface Shared factors: Labour 0.4 · Interest rates 0.3 · Steel 0.3Watch: vendor balance sheet (Westinghouse 2017 Ch.11 precedent); fixed-price vs cost-plus contract structure; change-order backlog
20%
25%
24 mo
Licensing and regulatory delayRegulatory Shared factors: Policy 1Watch: NRC/AERB/ONR review milestones; contested hearings; Part 53 / SHANTI rule-making timelines
40%
10%
18 mo
Heavy forging and nuclear-grade component bottleneckSupply chain Shared factors: Steel 0.5 · Electrical equipment 0.3 · Labour 0.2Watch: RPV/SG forging slots (Japan Steel Works, Doosan, L&T); N-stamp supplier count; counterfeit/fraudulent items reports
35%
8%
12 mo
Public opposition / liability law constraintsESG Shared factors: Policy 1Watch: land-acquisition protests (Jaitapur, Kovvada); supplier liability terms under CLND/SHANTI; referendums/court cases
20%
5%
12 mo
Fuel supply and enrichment (Russian ban, HALEU scarcity)Geopolitical Shared factors: Policy 0.6 · Gas 0.3 · Oil 0.1Watch: SWU price; Centrus/Urenco capacity additions; HALEU allocation by DOE
30%
2%
12 mo
Grid integration and large-unit interconnectionInterface Shared factors: Grid queue 0.7 · Electrical equipment 0.3Watch: interconnection study results; GSU transformer delivery; ISTS evacuation readiness
20%
3%
6 mo
Offtake / market price risk for merchant capacityMarket Shared factors: Power price 0.6 · Data-centre demand 0.4Watch: hyperscaler PPA pricing; capacity prices; FERC co-location rulings
20%
0%
0 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
Overnight capital costCapital is ~70-80% of nuclear LCOE; +10% capex ~ +7-8% LCOE.2,000–18,000USD/kWCapex
Construction duration (FCD to COD)At 8% WACC each extra year of build adds ~8-10% to all-in cost via IDC.60–180monthsCapex, Financing
Uranium U3O8 priceFuel ~USD 6-9/MWh; U3O8 is ~40% of fuel cost, so +USD 20/lb ~ +USD 1/MWh. FRED USD 69/lb (Jul-2026), UxC futures ~USD 90.40–120USD/lbOpex
Enrichment (SWU) priceRussian supply bans (US from 2028) tightened SWU; Russia holds ~40% of global enrichment capacity.100–250USD/SWUOpex
Capacity factorUS fleet ~90-93%; Indian fleet lower for older PHWRs; each 1 pt ~1.1% revenue.75%–95%Revenue
Long-term PPA / CfD strike priceHyperscaler nuclear PPAs reported at ~USD 80-100+/MWh; HPC CfD GBP 92.50/MWh (2012 prices).60–160USD/MWhRevenue, Margin
US 10-year TreasuryMost rate-sensitive power asset: +100 bp WACC ~ +12-15% LCOE.3–6percentFinancing
India 10-year G-secNPCIL debt/equity 70:30 with budgetary equity; tariffs set by DAE.6–8percentFinancing
Show 4 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
Steel mill products PPIRebar/liner/structural modules; +23% y/y Aug-2026.180–420indexCapex
Construction materials PPICivil works ~25-30% of nuclear island cost.230–400indexCapex
US construction hourly earningsLabour is ~40-50% of US nuclear direct cost; productivity matters more than rate.35–50USD/hCapex
US average retail electricity priceSupports restarts/uprates economics and PPA pricing; +46% since 2020.0.13–0.22USD/kWhRevenue

Price feeds (13)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Global price of UraniumPURANUSDMFREDUSD/lbmonthly
UxC U3O8 futuresUX=FYahooUSD/lbdaily
Global X Uranium ETFURAYahooUSDdaily
VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETFNLRYahooUSDdaily
PPI: Steel mill productsWPU1017FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Construction materialsWPUSI012011FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Turbines and turbine generator setsPCU333611333611FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Power and specialty transformersPCU335311335311FREDindexmonthly
Show 5 more feeds
SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Average hourly earnings, constructionCES2000000003FREDUSD/hmonthly
Average price: electricity per kWh, US city averageAPU000072610FREDUSD/kWhmonthly
US 10-year Treasury yieldDGS10FREDpercentdaily
India 10-year government bond yieldINDIRLTLT01STMFREDpercentmonthly
Germany 10-year Bund yieldIRLTLT01DEM156NFREDpercentmonthly

Listed tickers (22)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 8

  • NTPC.NS NTPC (ASHVINI JV with NPCIL) NSE · IN
  • CEG Constellation Energy NASDAQ · US
  • SO Southern Company (Vogtle) NYSE · US
  • VST Vistra (Comanche Peak, Beaver Valley) NYSE · US
  • OKLO Oklo NYSE · US
  • CEZ.PR CEZ (Dukovany II) PSE · EU
  • FORTUM.HE Fortum Nasdaq Helsinki · EU
  • ENGI.PA Engie (Belgian fleet LTO) Euronext Paris · EU

Suppliers · 13

  • LT.NS Larsen & Toubro (heavy forgings, nuclear EPC) NSE · IN
  • BHEL.NS BHEL (PHWR turbine islands, SGs) NSE · IN
  • WALCHANNAG.NS Walchandnagar Industries NSE · IN
  • MTARTECH.NS MTAR Technologies NSE · IN
  • HCC.NS Hindustan Construction Co. NSE · IN
  • CCJ Cameco (49% Westinghouse) NYSE · US
  • BWXT BWX Technologies NYSE · US
  • GEV GE Vernova (GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300) NYSE · US
  • LEU Centrus Energy (HALEU/LEU) NYSE · US
  • SMR NuScale Power NYSE · US
  • RR.L Rolls-Royce (Rolls-Royce SMR) LSE · EU
  • KAP.IL Kazatomprom LSE IOB · APAC
  • 034020.KS Doosan Enerbility KRX · APAC

Proxys · 1

  • URA Global X Uranium ETF NYSE Arca · US

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • Overnight cost per kW vs budget
  • Months from first concrete to COD
  • % engineering complete at first concrete
  • Earned value SPI/CPI
  • Capacity factor (%)
  • Unplanned capability loss factor
  • Refuelling outage duration (days)
  • Fuel cost (USD/MWh)
  • Fixed O&M (USD/kW-yr)
  • Collective radiation dose (person-Sv)
  • Regulatory findings / NCRs
  • Localisation share (% domestic content)

Regional notes

India8.88 GW operating (25 reactors), 8.7 GW under construction; PHWR-700 fleet mode keeps costs ~Rs 15 crore/MW but schedules slip; PFBR critical Apr-2026; Kudankulam 5 ~Dec-2026, unit 6 ~Sep-2027. SHANTI Act and Nuclear Energy Mission open BSR-220/SMR to private developers and NTPC; liability and fuel supply (NSG, imported uranium) remain key.
United StatesExecutive orders (May-2025) target 400 GW by 2050 and new large reactors under construction by 2030; restarts (Palisades, Crane), uprates and hyperscaler PPAs lead near-term. 45U/45Y/48E credits preserved for nuclear under OBBBA. Vogtle lessons: complete design before construction, fixed vendor accountability, experienced constructor, realistic labour productivity.
EuropeFrance EPR2 (6 units), UK HPC/Sizewell C/RR SMR, Czech Dukovany II, Poland AP1000 (Lubiatowo), Sweden new build; financing via RAB, CfD and state equity. EU taxonomy includes nuclear; Germany remains exited.
Middle EastUAE Barakah (5.6 GW, KEPCO) is the on-time benchmark; Saudi Arabia tendering first plant; Egypt El Dabaa (VVER-1200) under construction.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 14

  • NPCIL (Nuclear Power Corporation of India) Mumbai · INOperates India's 25 reactors (8,880 MW as of Apr-2025); 11 reactors (8,700 MW) under construction incl. Kudankulam 3-6, RAPP-8, Gorakhpur; fleet-mode PHWR-700.
  • BHAVINI Kalpakkam · IN500 MWe PFBR achieved first criticality 6-Apr-2026 after ~two decades; cost Rs 8,181 crore.
  • ASHVINI (NPCIL 51% / NTPC 49%) New Delhi · INJV building Mahi Banswara 4x700 MW (~Rs 42,000 crore); NTPC targets ~30 GW nuclear by 2047.
  • Indian private entrants (Tata Power, Adani, Reliance, JSW, Hindalco) Various · INPositioned for Bharat Small Reactors and private participation enabled by the SHANTI Act (Dec-2025) amendments to Atomic Energy and liability laws.
  • Constellation Energy Baltimore · USLargest US nuclear fleet (~22 GW+ after Calpine); Crane (TMI-1) restart for Microsoft (2027), Meta Clinton PPA, uprates.
  • Southern Company / Georgia Power Atlanta · USVogtle 3&4 AP1000s (COD Jul-2023 / Apr-2024); total project cost ~USD 34bn+.
  • Tennessee Valley Authority Knoxville · USClinch River BWRX-300 construction permit application; first US SMR fleet candidate.
  • Holtec International Camden, NJ · USPalisades restart (status returned to operational Aug-2025) and SMR-300 twin units planned at the site.
  • EDF Paris · EU56-reactor French fleet; Flamanville 3 EPR (grid Dec-2024, full power Dec-2025); EPR2 programme of 6 units; Hinkley Point C (unit 1 ~2030).
  • Sizewell C Ltd (UK Govt 44.9%, La Caisse, Centrica, EDF, Amber) Suffolk · EUFID 22-Jul-2025 under RAB model; ~GBP 38bn cost estimate.
  • CEZ / EDU II Prague · EUDukovany II 2 x APR1000 awarded to KHNP (contract 2025).
  • TVO / Fortum / Vattenfall Helsinki / Stockholm · EUOL3 EPR in regular operation since Apr-2023 after 18-year build; Vattenfall Ringhals SMR plans.
  • Ontario Power Generation Toronto · USDarlington New Nuclear: 4 x BWRX-300, unit 1 FID May-2025 (C$7.7bn), first G7 SMR (North America).
  • ENEC / Nawah (Barakah) Abu Dhabi · ME4 x APR1400 (5.6 GW) operating; benchmark for on-schedule Korean delivery.

Suppliers · 15

  • Westinghouse Electric (Brookfield / Cameco) Licensor · USAP1000/AP300; US government partnership (2025) targeting a large AP1000 fleet; Poland, Bulgaria, Ukraine projects.
  • EDF / Framatome Licensor · EUEPR/EPR2, fuel and heavy components; Jaitapur (6 x EPR) in India under negotiation.
  • GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy Licensor · USBWRX-300 SMR for OPG, TVA, Poland (OSGE).
  • KHNP / KEPCO E&C / Doosan Enerbility Licensor · APACAPR1400/APR1000; Barakah, Dukovany II; Doosan supplies RPVs/SGs incl. for US SMRs.
  • Rosatom / Atomstroyexport Licensor · APACVVER-1000/1200 for Kudankulam 3-6; also Paks II, Akkuyu, Rooppur.
  • Larsen & Toubro (Heavy Engineering, Hazira forging) EPC · INSteam generators, end-shields, forgings for PHWR/PFBR; major EPC for NPCIL.
  • BHEL OEM · INTurbine islands and steam generators for PHWR-700 fleet.
  • Walchandnagar, MTAR, Godrej & Boyce OEM · INCalandria, fuelling machines, precision assemblies.
  • BWX Technologies OEM · USNaval and commercial components, TRISO fuel, Canadian SG manufacturing for OPG.
  • Rolls-Royce SMR Licensor · EU470 MWe SMR selected by Great British Nuclear (2025) and CEZ.
  • NuScale Power / ENTRA1 Licensor · USOnly NRC-approved SMR design (77 MWe uprate approved 2025); TVA/ENTRA1 6 GW framework.
  • Cameco / Kazatomprom / Orano Materials · USUranium mining/conversion; Kazatomprom ~20%+ of world mine supply.
  • Urenco / Centrus / Orano Materials · EUEnrichment; Russian (Tenex) supply being phased out in US by 2028.
  • Bechtel / Fluor / Kiewit EPC · USVogtle completion (Bechtel); constructor capacity is a key US bottleneck.
  • Curtiss-Wright / Holtec / Mirion OEM · USPumps, valves, I&C, spent fuel storage, radiation monitoring.

Customers · 5

  • Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta) 24x7 clean power PPAsMicrosoft-Crane 20-yr PPA; Amazon-Talen Susquehanna (~1.9 GW); Meta-Constellation Clinton; Google-Kairos 500 MW; Amazon-X-energy.
  • State discoms (India) regulated offtakeNPCIL tariffs ~Rs 3-6/kWh set by DAE; payment security under LPS rules.
  • Regulated utilities (US/EU) rate-baseCost recovery through rates (Georgia PSC) or RAB (UK).
  • Energy-intensive industry (steel, aluminium, chemicals) captive / process heatIndian BSR-220 marketed for captive industrial decarbonisation; Dow/X-energy Seadrift.
  • Governments / TSOs capacity & security of supplyCfDs (HPC GBP 92.50/MWh 2012$), state equity, loan guarantees (DOE LPO).

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
A100Siting, ESP/site permit and environmental impact assessmentDevelop · factors: Policy15%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
A110Technology selection, vendor contract and financing structure (RAB/CfD/PPA/LPO)Develop · factors: Interest rates, Policy10%0.9 / 1 / 1.8
A120Construction licence (NRC COL/CP, AERB siting/construction consent)Develop · factors: Policy15%0.85 / 1 / 1.7
A130Grid connection and evacuation schemeDevelop · factors: Grid queue10%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
B100Site-specific detailed design (target >80% complete before FCD)Engineer · EPC · factors: Labour20%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
C100Long-lead: RPV, steam generators, pumps, forgingsProcure · OEM · factors: Steel, Electrical equipment35%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
C110Turbine-generator island and GSU transformersProcure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Copper25%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
C120Initial fuel core procurement (U3O8, conversion, SWU, fabrication)Procure · factors: Policy, Gas20%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
D100Site preparation, excavation and basemat (first nuclear concrete)Construct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Labour12%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
D110Nuclear island: containment, modules, RPV and SG settingConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel, Construction materials40%0.9 / 1 / 1.7
D120Conventional island and balance of plantConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel, Copper30%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
E100Cold and hot functional testing, ITAAC closureCommission · EPC · factors: Policy, Labour8%0.9 / 1 / 1.8
E110Fuel load, first criticality and power ascension to CODCommission · factors: Policy, Grid queue6%0.9 / 1 / 2

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Nuclear island equipment (RPV, SGs, pumps, I&C)20%
    Equipment
    • Steel 50%
    • Electrical equipment 30%
  • Civil/structural (containment, buildings, rebar, concrete)20%
    Construction
    • Construction materials 60%
    • Steel 40%
  • Craft labour and field indirects20%
    Labour
    • Labour 100%
  • Turbine island and electrical (TG, GSU, switchgear)12%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 60%
    • Copper 20%
    • Steel 10%
  • Interest during construction and financing11%
    Indirects
    • Interest rates 100%
  • Engineering, project management and licensing10%
    Engineering
    • Labour 50%
    • Policy 50%
  • Owner's costs, site and development4%
    Develop
    • Policy 50%
  • First core, commissioning and spares3%
    Commissioning
    • Policy 30%

Financial template

Revenue model

Long-term regulated/contracted revenue: DAE-notified tariffs (India), rate-base recovery (US regulated), RAB or CfD (UK/EU), or 20-year hyperscaler PPAs; merchant plants earn energy + capacity + clean attributes (US 45U/45Y PTCs).

Margin driver

Capacity factor

Ramp-up

1 year to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a nuclear power decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 13 parameters, 10 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are labour, policy, steel and electrical equipment. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 13 price feeds and 22 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Labour
  • Policy
  • Steel
  • Electrical equipment
  • Interest rates
  • Data-centre demand
  • Gas
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Labour25%
  • Steel19.2%
  • Electrical equipment13.2%
  • Construction materials12%
  • Interest rates11%
  • Policy7.9%
  • Copper2.4%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/the-path-to-a-new-era-for-nuclear-energy/executive-summary
  2. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025/executive-summary
  3. eia.govhttps://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/EMM_Assumptions.pdf
  4. lazard.comhttps://www.lazard.com/media/kcfconhf/lazards-lcoeplus_vf.pdf
  5. doi.orghttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2014.07.016
  6. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant
  7. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant
  8. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station
  9. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sizewell_C_nuclear_power_station
  10. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant
  11. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BWRX-300
  12. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NuScale_Power
  13. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_India
  14. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prototype_Fast_Breeder_Reactor
  15. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kudankulam_Nuclear_Power_Plant
  16. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palisades_Nuclear_Generating_Station
  17. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_Nuclear_Generating_Station
  18. npcil.nic.inhttps://npcil.nic.in/
  19. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PURANUSDM

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