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EV & battery gigafactories

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EV & battery gigafactoriescell manufacturing, cathode/anode materials, EV OEM plants

Lithium-ion cell gigafactories (LFP, NMC, emerging sodium-ion), upstream active materials (pCAM/CAM, graphite/silicon anodes), pack assembly and EV/e-2W OEM assembly plants. China dominates (~75-85% of cell capacity; Chinese automakers supplied 60% of global EV sales in 2025), while US/EU/India build localised supply under IRA/OBBBA 45X, EU Battery Regulation and India's ACC-PLI. Capital risk is acute: Northvolt's 2024-25 bankruptcy, US EV credit expiry (30-Sep-2025) and resulting write-downs/plant re-purposing, ramp/yield failures, metal price swings and policy whiplash.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 10 cited sources · 13 parameters · 10 swing factors.

At a glance

90Capex intensity · USD million per GWh/yr (cell plant, ex-China)range 40–130 · estimate

30Construction time · months (groundbreak to SOP; full ramp +12-24)range 18–48 · estimate

25%Mean cost overrunrange 0%–100% · estimate

50%Mean schedule overrunrange 10%–200% · sourced

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industry	Capex intensity	Notes
Li-ion cell gigafactories (LFP/NMC/LMFP, sodium-ion)10-60 GWh/yr cell plants: CATL, BYD, LGES, Panasonic, Samsung SDI, SK On, Tesla, AESC; India: Ola (Krishnagiri), Agratas/Tata (Sanand), Reliance (Jamnagar), Amara Raja, Exide.	40–130USD million per GWh/yr	estimate: China ~USD 40-60m/GWh; US/EU/India ~USD 80-130m/GWh (e.g., Agratas Sanand 20 GWh ~Rs 13,000 crore ~USD 70m/GWh at INR 95.8).
Cathode (pCAM/CAM), anode and electrolyte plantsUmicore, EcoPro, POSCO Future M, L&F, BASF; Epsilon (India anode/cathode), Himadri; graphite anode (Novonix, Syrah).	15–60USD million per GWh-equivalent	estimate.
EV and e-2W/3W vehicle assembly plantsBody-in-white, paint, general assembly, battery pack lines; Tesla, BYD, Hyundai-Kia Metaplant, VW, Tata Motors PV (Sanand), M&M (Chakan), Ola/Ather/TVS e-2W plants; VinFast Tamil Nadu.	300–10,000USD per unit of annual capacity	estimate: cars USD 4,000-10,000 per unit/yr (e.g., USD 1-2.5bn for 200-300k units); e-2W USD 300-800 per unit/yr.
Battery pack/module assemblyPack integration (BMS, thermal) by OEMs and suppliers (Tata AutoComp, Exicom, Log9).	5–20USD million per GWh/yr	estimate.
Battery recycling and black-mass refiningRedwood, Li-Cycle (restructured), Umicore, Attero, Lohum, Gravita.	50–250USD million per 10 kt/yr	estimate; economics depend on Ni/Co/Li prices and EU recycled-content rules.

Value chain

Inputs

lithium carbonate/hydroxide
nickel, cobalt, manganese sulphates
iron phosphate / LFP precursors
graphite (natural/synthetic) and silicon
copper and aluminium foils
electrolyte (LiPF6) and separators
dry rooms, coaters, calenders, formation/aging equipment
low-carbon power and water
automotive steel/aluminium, semiconductors (vehicle plants)

Process

electrode slurry mixing and coating
calendering and slitting
cell assembly (stacking/winding), electrolyte filling
formation and aging (largest energy use)
module/pack integration
vehicle body, paint and general assembly
end-of-line testing and homologation
recycling of scrap and end-of-life batteries

Outputs

EV, ESS and e-2W cells
battery packs
BEVs/PHEVs, e-buses, e-trucks, e-2W/3W
cathode/anode materials
recycled black mass and metals

Parameters

13 parameters: 3 sourced, 10 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

Parameter	Default & range	Evidence	Source
Capex intensity(cell plant, ex-China)	90 USD million per GWh/yrrange 40–130	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	Informed estimate; no single source
Construction months(groundbreak to SOP; full ramp +12-24)	30 monthsrange 18–48	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	Informed estimate; no single source
Cost overrun mean	25%range 0%–100%	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	greenfield Western gigafactories
Schedule overrun mean	50%range 10%–200%	sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026	en.wikipedia.org
Asset life (years)(equipment 8-12)	15 yearsrange 8–25	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	Informed estimate; no single source
WACC	10%range 7%–14%	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	Informed estimate; no single source
Typical IRR	12%range −10%–25%	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	CATL-class returns ~20%; new entrants frequently negative
Utilization	65%range 20%–90%	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	Informed estimate; no single source
Opex % of revenue(materials ~65-75% of cell cost)	82%range 70%–95%	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	Informed estimate; no single source
EBITDA margin	12%range −20%–30%	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	CATL ~25%, Korean cell makers 5-15%, new entrants negative
KWh per EV	60 kWh per BEV carrange 20–110	estimateas of 5 Oct 2026	Informed estimate; no single source
Global EV sales 2026 mn	23 million carsrange 20–25	sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026	iea.org
US 45x cell credit (USD per kWh)(cells)	35 USD/kWhrange 0–35	sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026	en.wikipedia.org

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule

Ramp/yield failure and high scrap ratesTechnical Shared factors: Labour 0.5 · Electrical equipment 0.5Watch: scrap %; OEM qualification status; equipment vendor support presence

40%

25%

18 mo

FEOC/localisation rule compliance (45X, ACC-PLI DVA)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 1Watch: Treasury FEOC guidance; MHI PLI milestone reviews and penalties; Chinese licensing deals (Ford-CATL)

35%

10%

6 mo

Critical mineral price and supply shocks (Li, Ni, Co, graphite, REEs)Commodity Shared factors: Policy 0.4 · Aluminium 0.2 · Copper 0.2 · Electrical equipment 0.2Watch: lithium hydroxide futures; China graphite/REE export controls; Indonesian nickel policy

35%

3 mo

Financing and sponsor balance-sheet riskFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.7 · Policy 0.3Watch: DOE LPO / EIB loan status; sponsor credit spreads; JV unwinds

35%

12 mo

Equipment supply and vendor dependence (Chinese tool makers, visas)Supply chain Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.6 · Policy 0.4Watch: visa availability for vendor technicians (India/US); China equipment export restrictions

30%

6 mo

Construction labour and immigration enforcementLabour Shared factors: Labour 0.8 · Policy 0.2Watch: Hyundai-LGES Georgia raid (Sep-2025) precedent; craft wages

25%

4 mo

Utilities: power, water and green-power availabilityInterface Shared factors: Power price 0.5 · Grid queue 0.5Watch: substation readiness; RE PPA for EU carbon footprint rules

20%

4 mo

Safety incidents (fires in plants/vehicles) and recallsESG Shared factors: Policy 0.5 · Labour 0.5Watch: recall notices; BIS/AIS-156 compliance; plant fire events

15%

3 mo

Demand/policy whiplash (credit expiry, CO2 standard relaxation)Market Shared factors: Policy 0.7 · Oil 0.2 · Interest rates 0.1Watch: EV sales share by market; US 30D expiry effects; EU Automotive Package/CO2 flexibilities

45%

12 mo

Chinese competition and price deflationMarket Shared factors: Policy 0.5 · Electrical equipment 0.5Watch: China LFP cell spot; EU/US/India tariff decisions; Chinese export volumes

45%

0 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

Variable	Typical range	Affects
Lithium hydroxide priceLFP ~0.55-0.6 kg LCE/kWh, NMC ~0.7 kg; +USD 10/kg ~ +USD 6-8/kWh cell cost; ~USD 15/kg in Oct-2026.	8–80USD/kg	Opex, Revenue
NickelNMC811 ~0.6-0.7 kg Ni/kWh; FRED USD 16,632/t (Jul-2026), +11% y/y.	14,000–30,000USD/t	Opex
AluminiumCathode foils, cans, enclosures, vehicle bodies.	2,000–3,500USD/t	Opex, Capex
CopperAnode foil ~0.5-0.8 kg/kWh plus ~60-80 kg per EV.	7,000–14,000USD/t	Opex
Battery manufacturing PPIUS price signal incl. tariffs.	200–320index	Revenue
Cell/pack priceChinese LFP cells ~USD 50-60/kWh vs US/EU ~USD 90-120/kWh - estimate; drives competitiveness of localised plants.	50–160USD/kWh	Revenue, Margin
EV share of new car sales2025: China ~55%, Europe 28%, US <10%; India cars ~4-5% (estimate); global 2026e 28%.	2%–65%	Revenue, Utilization
Gigafactory utilisationGlobal cell capacity far exceeds demand outside top-tier players; <60% utilisation is loss-making for new entrants.	20%–90%	Margin

Show 4 more variables

Variable	Typical range	Affects
Production scrap / yield lossNew Western plants (Northvolt) suffered scrap of 30%+ during ramp vs <5% at CATL - estimate.	3%–40%	Opex, Schedule
Production incentive (45X / ACC-PLI)US 45X: USD 35/kWh cells + USD 10/kWh modules (FEOC limits under OBBBA); India ACC-PLI tied to 60% DVA.	0–45USD/kWh	Revenue, Margin
US 10-year TreasuryGreenfield gigafactories rely on DOE/EIB loans and project debt.	3–6percent	Financing
INR per USDIndian cell plants import equipment (Chinese/Korean) and most materials.	80–100INR/USD	Capex, Opex

Price feeds (14)

Series	Source / id	Unit	Frequency
Lithium hydroxide CIF CJK futures	LTH=FYahoo	USD/kg	daily
Global price of Nickel	PNICKUSDMFRED	USD/t	monthly
Global price of Aluminum	PALUMUSDMFRED	USD/t	monthly
Global price of Copper	PCOPPUSDMFRED	USD/t	monthly
PPI: Battery manufacturing	PCU335911335911FRED	index	monthly
PPI: Storage batteries (ex lead-acid)	WPU11790105FRED	index	monthly
PPI: Automobile, light truck and utility vehicle manufacturing	PCU336110336110FRED	index	monthly
PPI: Motor vehicle electrical and electronic equipment	PCU336320336320FRED	index	monthly

Show 6 more feeds

Series	Source / id	Unit	Frequency
PPI: Steel mill products	WPU1017FRED	index	monthly
PPI: Industrial electric power	WPU0543FRED	index	monthly
US 10-year Treasury yield	DGS10FRED	percent	daily
INR per USD	DEXINUSFRED	INR/USD	daily
USD per EUR	DEXUSEUFRED	USD/EUR	daily
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF	LITYahoo	USD	daily

Listed tickers (28)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 17

OLAELEC.NS Ola Electric (cell gigafactory + e-2W) NSE · IN
ATHERENERG.NS Ather Energy NSE · IN
TVSMOTOR.NS TVS Motor NSE · IN
BAJAJ-AUTO.NS Bajaj Auto NSE · IN
HYUNDAI.NS Hyundai Motor India NSE · IN
EXIDEIND.NS Exide Industries (Exide Energy cells) NSE · IN
ARE&M.NS Amara Raja Energy & Mobility NSE · IN
RELIANCE.NS Reliance Industries (battery giga-complex) NSE · IN
TSLA Tesla NASDAQ · US
GM General Motors NYSE · US
F Ford Motor NYSE · US
RIVN Rivian NASDAQ · US
VOW3.DE Volkswagen (PowerCo) XETRA · EU
BMW.DE BMW XETRA · EU
MBG.DE Mercedes-Benz (ACC shareholder) XETRA · EU
STLAM.MI Stellantis (ACC shareholder) Borsa Italiana · EU
1211.HK BYD HKEX · APAC

Suppliers · 8

ALB Albemarle NYSE · US
SQM SQM NYSE · LATAM
UMI.BR Umicore Euronext Brussels · EU
300750.SZ CATL SZSE · APAC
373220.KS LG Energy Solution KRX · APAC
006400.KS Samsung SDI KRX · APAC
096770.KS SK Innovation (SK On) KRX · APAC
6752.T Panasonic Holdings TSE · APAC

Consumers · 2

TMPV.NS Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (Tata.ev, JLR; Agratas parent group) NSE · IN
M&M.NS Mahindra & Mahindra NSE · IN

Proxys · 1

LIT Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF NYSE Arca · US

Trends and research findings

Trends

EV growth shifts geographically2025-2030
2025: Europe EV share 28% (+30% sales), China ~55%, US just under 10% with sales falling after credits ended; 2026 global sales expected at 23m (28%).
iea.org
Chinese OEM dominance2025-2030
Chinese automakers supplied 60% of global EV sales in 2025; 70% of BEVs sold in China were cheaper than the average conventional car.
iea.org
US EV credit expiry and plant re-purposing2025-2028
New and used EV tax credits ended 30-Sep-2025; charging credits end 30-Jun-2026; cell plants pivot to ESS/LFP to retain 45X under FEOC rules.
en.wikipedia.org
European gigafactory shake-out2024-2028
Northvolt filed Ch.11 (Nov-2024) and Swedish bankruptcy (Mar-2025); Chinese makers (CATL Hungary/Spain) fill the gap.
en.wikipedia.org
Chinese overseas investment2020-2030
Chinese EV and battery makers announced ~USD 80bn of overseas manufacturing investment in five years (Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil, Mexico, Turkiye).
iea.org
Electric trucks and two-wheelers2025-2035
Electric truck sales more than doubled in 2025 to 9% of global truck sales; e-2W/3W growth strong in India and SE Asia.
iea.org

Research findings

Tesla capex (SEC)
Tesla purchases of PP&E fell to USD 8.53bn in 2025 from USD 11.34bn in 2024.
data.sec.gov
EV fleet oil displacement
The global EV fleet avoided ~1.7 mb/d of oil consumption in 2025; EV fleet could grow >6x to ~510m by 2035 under current policies.
iea.org
Battery cost history
Prices for all Li-ion cell types fell ~99% between 1991 and 2024 in USD/kWh.
en.wikipedia.org
US battery price inflation vs global deflation
US battery manufacturing PPI +26% and storage-battery PPI +32% since Jan-2020 (Aug-2026), reflecting tariffs and localisation costs.
fred.stlouisfed.org
Metals exposure
Copper +125%, aluminium +78% and nickel +23% vs Jan-2020 (FRED, Jul-2026).
fred.stlouisfed.org
Q1-2026 market dip
Global electric car sales of ~3.9m in Q1-2026 were 8% lower y/y on policy changes in China and the US, while Europe grew ~30%.
iea.org

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

Nameplate GWh and utilisation (%)
Capex per GWh
Scrap rate / yield (%)
Cell cost (USD/kWh)
Energy density (Wh/kg)
Months from groundbreak to SOP
OEM qualification milestones
Vehicle plant capacity utilisation (%)
EV gross margin per unit
Domestic value addition (%)
Incentive accrual (45X/PLI) vs plan
Warranty claims / recall rate

Regional notes

India	ACC-PLI (Rs 18,100 crore for 50 GWh) progress lagged with penalties for missed milestones (Ola, Reliance, Rajesh Exports); private non-PLI cell plants (Agratas, Amara Raja, Exide) ramping 2025-27; PM E-DRIVE (Rs 10,900 crore) and SPMEPCI (import duty concession for >=USD 500m investment) support EVs; China's 2025 rare-earth magnet curbs hit e-2W output; INR ~96/USD inflates imported equipment cost.
United States	OBBBA ended consumer EV credits (30-Sep-2025) but kept 45X with FEOC restrictions; automakers took large EV write-downs and redirected cell capacity to ESS/LFP (often licensing CATL technology); tariffs on Chinese EVs/batteries; DOE loans under review.
Europe	EV share 28% (2025) under CO2 standards; Battery Regulation (carbon footprint, recycled content, passports); Northvolt failure and ACC pauses; Chinese plants in Hungary/Spain; proposed Automotive Package would loosen 2035 target but EV share still >90% by 2035 per IEA.
Middle East	Saudi Arabia (Lucid, Ceer, battery plans) and Morocco (Chinese cathode/cell plants) emerging hubs.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 13

Agratas (Tata Group) Mumbai · IN20 GWh Sanand cell plant (~Rs 13,000 crore) and 40 GWh Somerset, UK gigafactory for Tata.ev/JLR.
Ola Electric Bengaluru · INACC-PLI 20 GWh allocation; Krishnagiri 4680 cell gigafactory started at ~5 GWh; e-2W market-share losses and losses weigh on funding.
Reliance New Energy Mumbai · INACC-PLI 10 GWh + additional allocation; Jamnagar battery giga-complex (LFP, sodium-ion via Faradion).
Amara Raja / Exide Energy Tirupati / Bengaluru · INNon-PLI Li-ion cell plants (Telangana 16 GWh; Bengaluru 12 GWh phased).
Tata Motors PV / M&M / Hyundai / Maruti Suzuki Mumbai / Gurugram · INIndian EV car OEMs; Maruti e-Vitara exports; SPMEPCI encourages global OEM local plants.
TVS / Bajaj / Ather / Hero Various · INe-2W leaders; PM E-DRIVE incentives and rare-earth magnet supply shocks (2025).
Tesla Austin · USGigafactories Texas/Nevada/Berlin/Shanghai; capex USD 8.5bn in 2025 (USD 11.3bn 2024); LFP cell lines for Megapack.
General Motors / Ultium Cells (LGES) Detroit · USUltium plants re-tooled toward LFP and ESS after 2025 EV demand reset.
Ford / BlueOval SK Dearborn · USBlueOval SK JV unwound (2025); Kentucky/Tennessee plants re-scoped; LFP plant in Michigan with CATL licence.
Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant / Toyota NC / Panasonic Kansas Georgia / NC / Kansas · USLarge Southeastern US EV/battery investments; immigration raid at Hyundai-LGES Georgia site (Sep-2025) delayed ramp.
VW PowerCo / ACC (Stellantis-Mercedes-Total) / Verkor Salzgitter / Bordeaux / Grenoble · EUPowerCo Salzgitter/Valencia/St Thomas; ACC paused German/Italian plants; Verkor Dunkirk.
Northvolt (assets acquired by Lyten) Stockholm · EULargest Swedish industrial bankruptcy (Mar-2025) - cautionary case on ramp/yield.
CATL / BYD / CALB / Gotion / EVE Ningde / Shenzhen · APACChinese leaders expanding in Hungary (Debrecen), Spain (Stellantis-CATL Zaragoza), Indonesia, Morocco.

Suppliers · 11

Wuxi Lead / Yinghe / Hirano / PNT OEM · APACElectrode coating, winding/stacking and formation equipment (mostly Chinese/Korean).
Albemarle / SQM / Ganfeng / Tianqi / Pilbara Materials · USLithium chemicals.
Umicore / EcoPro / POSCO Future M / L&F / BASF Materials · EUCathode materials; Umicore scaled back battery materials capex 2024-25.
Epsilon Advanced Materials / Himadri / Altmin / Hindalco Materials · INIndian anode, LFP cathode, aluminium foil suppliers.
Asahi Kasei / SEMCORP / Toray Materials · APACSeparators.
Durr / ABB / Siemens / Bosch Rexroth OEM · EUAutomation, dry-room HVAC, paint shops for vehicle plants.
Exyte / Munters OEM · EUDry-room and cleanroom systems.
L&T / Tata Projects / Shapoorji / Kiewit / Walbridge EPC · INGigafactory and auto-plant EPC.
Redwood Materials / Li-Cycle / Attero / Lohum Services · USRecycling and closed-loop materials.
Sona Comstar / Uno Minda / Tata AutoComp OEM · INEV traction motors, BMS and packs; rare-earth magnet exposure.
Siemens Digital Industries / Dassault / Rockwell Software · EUMES, digital twin and quality analytics for ramp/yield.

Customers · 5

Passenger EV buyers BEV/PHEV carsGlobal EV sales 2026e 23m (28% share); Europe ~1 in 3 cars.
Two- and three-wheeler riders e-2W/e-3WIndia e-2W sales grew >30% y/y in Q1-2026; SE Asia doubled.
Commercial fleets (buses, trucks, last-mile) commercial EVElectric trucks 9% of global truck sales 2025; India PM e-Bus Sewa.
Stationary storage (BESS) integrators ESS cellsFastest-growing outlet for LFP cells; US EV lines converting to ESS.
Automakers buying cells (offtake) cell offtakeLong-term supply agreements set utilisation of independent cell makers.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

ID	Step & timing	Share	O / ML / P
A100	Offtake agreements, technology/licensing partner and business caseDevelop · factors: Policy, Interest rates, Oil	15%	0.9 / 1 / 1.6
A110	Incentive approvals (45X/DOE LPO, ACC-PLI, state packages) and financingDevelop · factors: Policy, Interest rates	15%	0.85 / 1 / 1.8
A120	Land, environmental clearance, power and water connectionsDevelop · factors: Policy, Grid queue	20%	0.9 / 1 / 1.6
B100	Process and facility design (dry rooms, formation, HVAC, solvent recovery)Engineer · EPC · factors: Labour	15%	0.9 / 1 / 1.4
C100	Process equipment orders (mixing, coating, assembly, formation)Procure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Policy	35%	0.9 / 1 / 1.5
C110	Facility long-lead: substations, chillers, dry-room AHUs, NMP recoveryProcure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Steel, Copper	30%	0.9 / 1 / 1.5
C120	Raw-material supply contracts (Li, CAM, anode, electrolyte, foils)Procure · factors: Policy, Aluminium, Copper, Electrical equipment	20%	0.9 / 1 / 1.6
D100	Civil works and building shellConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Steel, Labour	30%	0.9 / 1 / 1.4
D110	MEP, dry rooms and utilities installationConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Copper, Electrical equipment	30%	0.9 / 1 / 1.5
D120	Equipment installation and line integrationConstruct · OEM · factors: Labour, Electrical equipment	20%	0.9 / 1 / 1.6
E100	Pilot production, cell validation and customer (OEM) qualificationCommission · factors: Labour, Electrical equipment	20%	0.9 / 1 / 2
E110	SOP and volume ramp to nameplateCommission · factors: Labour, Policy, Oil	25%	0.9 / 1 / 2.2

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

Process equipment (electrode, assembly, formation/aging)52%
Equipment
- Electrical equipment 70%
- Policy 30%
Building shell and civil works13%
Construction
- Construction materials 50%
- Steel 50%
Dry rooms, HVAC, solvent recovery and utilities12%
Equipment
- Electrical equipment 50%
- Copper 30%
- Steel 20%
Construction and installation labour8%
Labour
- Labour 100%
Pre-production ramp costs (scrap, training, qualification)5%
Commissioning
- Labour 50%
- Aluminium 25%
- Copper 25%
Engineering, licences and PMC4%
Engineering
- Labour 100%
Land, power/water connections and approvals3%
Develop
- Grid queue 50%
- Policy 50%
Financing, insurance and IDC3%
Indirects
- Interest rates 100%

Financial template

Revenue model

Cell makers sell cells/packs under multi-year OEM or ESS offtake agreements with metal-price pass-through plus production incentives (45X USD 35/kWh cells, India ACC-PLI); OEM plants earn vehicle margins dependent on volume and battery cost; materials makers earn processing fees over metal indices.

Margin driver

Gigafactory utilisation

Ramp-up

3 years to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a EV & battery gigafactories decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 13 parameters, 10 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are policy, electrical equipment, labour and interest rates. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 14 price feeds and 28 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

Policy
Electrical equipment
Labour
Interest rates
Oil
Aluminium
Copper

Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

Electrical equipment42.4%
Policy17.1%
Labour14.5%
Steel8.9%
Construction materials6.5%
Copper4.9%
Interest rates3%

Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/executive-summary
iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025/executive-summary
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northvolt
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_Reduction_Act
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory
en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery
data.sec.govhttps://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyconcept/CIK0001318605/us-gaap/PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment.json
fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU335911335911
fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNICKUSDM

Bring us one real decision in EV & battery gigafactories.

We start it from the EV & battery gigafactories pack v1.0.0: 13 parameters, 10 swing factors and the 12-step project template, pinned to your decision.