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Industry brief · Power & digital
Solar PVutility-scale, rooftop/C&I, module & cell manufacturing
The largest single item of global energy investment (~USD 450bn in 2025), spanning utility-scale plants (fixed/tracker, increasingly hybridised with BESS), distributed rooftop and C&I systems, and the upstream polysilicon-wafer-cell-module chain. Capital risk centres on trade policy (ALMM/DCR in India, AD/CVD, FEOC and UFLPA in the US, EU NZIA), module/cell price volatility, land and transmission (curtailment, connectivity), and tax-credit timing under OBBBA.
Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 11 cited sources · 14 parameters · 9 swing factors.
At a glance
Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources
Sub-industries
Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.
| Sub-industry | Capex intensity | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Utility-scale PV (single-axis tracker / fixed tilt)50 MW to multi-GW parks (Khavda 30 GW hybrid park, Bhadla, US Southwest/ERCOT, Spain/Germany); EPC + BOS dominated, modules now ~15-30% of capex. | 380–1,850USD per kWac | India ~Rs 3.6-4.5 crore/MWac (~USD 380-470/kW) - estimate; US Lazard 2026 USD 1,250-1,850/kW; EIA AEO2026 PV w/ tracking USD 1,484/kW. |
| Rooftop and C&I / community solarResidential rooftop (PM Surya Ghar in India; US residential leasing), C&I captive/group-captive and open-access, community solar. | 450–2,950USD per kWdc | India residential ~Rs 45,000-60,000/kW (~USD 470-630/kW) - estimate; Lazard 2026 community & C&I USD 1,750-2,950/kW. |
| PV + storage hybrids / FDRESolar with co-located 2-4 h BESS; India FDRE/RTC tenders (SECI, NHPC, NTPC, SJVN) and US PV+storage. | 600–1,900USD per kWac (PV) + USD per kWh | EIA AEO2026 PV+storage USD 1,903/kW; Lazard storage add-on USD 270-365/kWh. |
| Module assembly (TOPCon/HJT/bifacial)Stringing, lamination and framing lines; India's ALMM List-I capacity exceeded ~100 GW by 2025 and continues to grow under PLI. | 20–45USD million per GW | estimate; module lines are low capex/short build (9-15 months) and prone to overcapacity. |
| Cells, wafers, ingots and polysiliconTOPCon cell lines (India ALMM List-II from 1-Jun-2026), ingot-wafer and polysilicon (Reliance, Adani, Waaree, Premier integrating; US First Solar CdTe thin-film is vertically integrated). | 60–400USD million per GW | estimate: cells USD 60-110m/GW; ingot-wafer USD 80-150m/GW; polysilicon USD 250-400m per GW-equivalent. First Solar US factories ~USD 1.1bn for ~3.5 GW. |
Value chain
Inputs
- polysilicon / quartz
- silver paste
- solar glass
- aluminium frames
- EVA/POE encapsulant and backsheet
- inverters (string/central)
- steel trackers and mounting
- DC/AC cables (copper/aluminium)
- land and grid connectivity
Process
- polysilicon -> ingot -> wafer
- cell (PERC/TOPCon/HJT/BC)
- module assembly
- plant design and yield assessment
- EPC: piling, structures, modules, inverters, pooling substation
- grid connection and commissioning
- O&M, cleaning, performance monitoring
Outputs
- daytime renewable electricity
- RECs / green attributes
- hybrid firm power with BESS
- modules/cells for domestic and export markets
Parameters
14 parameters: 7 sourced, 7 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.
| Parameter | Default & range | Evidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capex intensity(blended; India ~420, US ~1,500) | 900 USD/kWacrange 380–1,850 | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | lazard.com |
| Construction months | 15 monthsrange 9–24 | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | lazard.com |
| Cost overrun mean | 1.3%range −5%–15% | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | doi.org |
| Schedule overrun mean | 25%range 0%–100% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Indian projects frequently extended for transmission/land; US for interconnection and tariff detentions |
| Asset life (years) | 30 yearsrange 25–35 | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | lazard.com |
| WACC | 8%range 6%–11% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | India INR WACC ~9-10%; US/EU 6-8% |
| Typical IRR(equity, levered) | 12%range 8%–16% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | India utility solar equity IRR 12-14%; US 8-11% |
| Utilization(CUF, AC) | 24%range 15%–32% | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | lazard.com |
| Opex % of revenue | 12%range 7%–20% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | fixed O&M USD 8-26/kW-yr per Lazard |
| EBITDA margin | 85%range 75%–92% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Adani Green / ACME / NTPC Green reported ~85-90% EBITDA margins |
| Fixed O&M (USD per kW-yr) | 17 USD/kW-yrrange 8–26 | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | lazard.com |
| LCOE (USD per MWh)(US unsubsidised avg) | 69 USD/MWhrange 40–98 | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | lazard.com |
| Module share of capex | 25%range 15%–45% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Manufacturing capex cell (USD m per GW) | 80 USD million/GWrange 60–110 | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
What moves value
Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.
Market signals
What moves the case
Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.
| Variable | Typical range | Affects |
|---|---|---|
| Module price (TOPCon, FOB China / India DCR)Chinese module prices fell >60% since 2023; India DCR modules carry ~2-3x premium. +USD 0.05/W ~ +USD 50/kW capex. | 0.08–0.35USD/Wdc | Capex, Revenue |
| Silver (cell metallisation)~8-12 mg/W for TOPCon; silver at ~USD 60/oz makes paste the largest non-silicon cell cost - drives copper metallisation. | 20–65USD/oz | Capex, Margin |
| Aluminium (frames, cables)~0.6-0.8 t/MW in frames/structures; +21% y/y Jul-2026. | 2,000–3,500USD/t | Capex |
| Steel mill products PPI (trackers, piles)Trackers/structures ~10-15% of utility capex; ~40-60 t steel/MW. | 180–420index | Capex |
| Copper (cables, transformers)~3-5 t/MW incl. cabling and pooling substation; USD 13,500/t (Jul-2026) +39% y/y. | 7,000–14,000USD/t | Capex |
| Flat glass PPIGlass ~10-15% of module BOM. | 120–180index | Capex |
| PPA / auction tariffIndia SECI plain solar ~Rs 2.5-2.7/kWh (~USD 26-28/MWh); FDRE Rs 4.3-5.0; US utility PPAs USD 50-70/MWh. | 26–90USD/MWh | Revenue |
| Capacity utilisation factorIndia 19-26% (trackers +15-20% yield); Lazard 15-30%. | 16%–32% | Revenue |
Show 4 more variables
| Variable | Typical range | Affects |
|---|---|---|
| Curtailment / negative price hoursRising in Rajasthan/Gujarat (transmission lag), CAISO, Spain, Germany; solar capture prices fall below baseload. | 0%–15% | Revenue |
| US 10-year TreasuryCapex-heavy: +100 bp ~ +7-9% LCOE. | 3–6percent | Financing |
| INR per USDImported cells/wafers/poly (pre-ALMM-II) and inverters priced in USD. | 80–100INR/USD | Capex |
| US retail electricity priceDrives rooftop/C&I payback. | 0.13–0.22USD/kWh | Revenue |
Price feeds (13)
| Series | Source / id | Unit | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMEX silver futures | SI=FYahoo | USD/oz | daily |
| Global price of Aluminum | PALUMUSDMFRED | USD/t | monthly |
| Global price of Copper | PCOPPUSDMFRED | USD/t | monthly |
| PPI: Steel mill products | WPU1017FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: Flat glass manufacturing | PCU327211327211FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: Electrical equipment manufacturing | PCU3353133531FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: Power wire and cable (nonferrous) | PCU3359293359291FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: Power and specialty transformers | PCU335311335311FRED | index | monthly |
Show 5 more feeds
| Series | Source / id | Unit | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average price: electricity per kWh | APU000072610FRED | USD/kWh | monthly |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | DGS10FRED | percent | daily |
| India 10-year government bond yield | INDIRLTLT01STMFRED | percent | monthly |
| INR per USD | DEXINUSFRED | INR/USD | daily |
| Invesco Solar ETF | TANYahoo | USD | daily |
Listed tickers (25)
Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.
Operators · 10
- ADANIGREEN.NS Adani Green Energy NSE · IN
- NTPCGREEN.NS NTPC Green Energy NSE · IN
- ACMESOLAR.NS ACME Solar Holdings NSE · IN
- TATAPOWER.NS Tata Power (TP Solar, rooftop) NSE · IN
- KPIGREEN.NS KPI Green Energy NSE · IN
- NEE NextEra Energy NYSE · US
- RUN Sunrun NASDAQ · US
- SLR.MC Solaria Energia BME · EU
- SCATC.OL Scatec Oslo · EU
- IBE.MC Iberdrola BME · EU
Suppliers · 14
- WAAREEENER.NS Waaree Energies NSE · IN
- PREMIERENE.NS Premier Energies NSE · IN
- VIKRAMSOLR.NS Vikram Solar NSE · IN
- SAATVIKGL.NS Saatvik Green Energy NSE · IN
- BORORENEW.NS Borosil Renewables (solar glass) NSE · IN
- SWSOLAR.NS Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy NSE · IN
- FSLR First Solar NASDAQ · US
- NXT Nextpower (formerly Nextracker) NASDAQ · US
- ARRY Array Technologies NASDAQ · US
- ENPH Enphase Energy NASDAQ · US
- SEDG SolarEdge NASDAQ · US
- CSIQ Canadian Solar NASDAQ · APAC
- JKS JinkoSolar NYSE · APAC
- S92.DE SMA Solar Technology XETRA · EU
Proxys · 1
- TAN Invesco Solar ETF NYSE Arca · US
Trends and research findings
Trends
- Solar dominates investment and additions2025-2030
Solar (utility + rooftop) investment ~USD 450bn in 2025, the largest single energy-investment item; PV ~80% of the global renewable capacity increase to 2030.
- Chinese overcapacity and price collapse2024-2027
Chinese PV prices down >60% since 2023; largest manufacturers at ~-10% margins with cumulative losses near USD 5bn since 2024.
- India backward integration under ALMM/PLI2026-2030
ALMM List-II (cells) applies from 1-Jun-2026 for government-backed projects; wafer/ingot mandates proposed later; PLI (Rs 24,000 crore) supports ~48 GW of integrated capacity.
- India crosses 168 GW solar2025-2030
Installed solar reached 168 GWac by Aug-2026; Khavda 30 GW hybrid park ~11 GW complete; >50% non-fossil capacity reached in Jun-2025.
- US policy retrenchment2025-2028
OBBBA ends 45Y/48E for solar unless construction begins by Jul-2026 or service by end-2027; residential 25D ended 31-Dec-2025; US renewables forecast cut almost 50%.
- Hybridisation and firming2025-2030
PV+4h storage LCOE USD 61-156/MWh (Lazard 2026); India FDRE tenders and US PV+BESS become default procurement.
Research findings
- Lazard LCOE+ 2026 solar
Utility PV capex USD 1,250-1,850/kW, LCOE USD 40-98/MWh (avg USD 69), USD 16-81/MWh with PTC; LCOEs rose year-on-year on tariffs and supply-chain repricing.
- EIA AEO2026
Solar PV with tracking USD 1,484/kW and 2-yr lead time; PV+storage (150 MW + 50 MW/4h) USD 1,903/kW.
- Solar has lowest overrun of power assets
Mean cost overrun for solar projects 1.3% vs 13% thermal and 117% nuclear.
- Supply-chain concentration
Concentration in key PV production segments remains above 90% (China) through 2030.
- Commodity pass-through
Copper +125% and aluminium +78% since Jan-2020 (FRED, Jul-2026), raising BOS/cabling share of capex as module prices fall.
- Pakistan-style distributed boom
Pakistan imported ~19 GW of Chinese panels in 2024 alone, about half its grid-connected capacity - showing rooftop disruption risk to utility load.
KPIs, regions and who builds
KPIs the pack tracks
Regional notes
| India | 168 GW installed (Aug-2026) toward 280-300 GW solar within the 500 GW non-fossil 2030 target; key issues: ALMM List-II cell mandate (Jun-2026) raising DCR costs, >40 GW of awarded capacity awaiting PPA/PSA signing, ISTS waiver phase-out from Jul-2025, transmission lag and curtailment in Rajasthan/Gujarat, US AD/CVD exposure for Indian exporters. |
|---|---|
| United States | OBBBA phases out 45Y/48E for solar (begin construction by 4-Jul-2026 or placed in service by end-2027) with strict FEOC rules; 45X manufacturing credit retained with FEOC limits; AD/CVD on SE Asian and Indian cells; Section 232 polysilicon investigation. Utility PPAs repricing upward. |
| Europe | NZIA resilience criteria in auctions (from 2026), forced-labour regulation, falling capture prices and negative-price hours in Spain/Germany push hybridisation; rooftop growth slowed after 2023 boom. |
| Middle East | Saudi Arabia/UAE deliver multi-GW solar at ~USD 13-20/MWh with Chinese EPC/modules; MENA forecast revised up 25% by IEA. |
Who builds and operates
Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.
Operators · 12
- Adani Green Energy Largest Indian RE IPP (~17+ GW operational); developing 30 GW Khavda hybrid park (~11 GW complete by 2026); target 50 GW by 2030.
- NTPC Green Energy Listed Nov-2024; 60 GW RE target by 2032; large solar parks in Rajasthan/Gujarat.
- ReNew Energy Global ~11 GW operating; integrated cell/module manufacturing at Dholera.
- ACME Solar Holdings FDRE/RTC hybrid specialist; listed Nov-2024.
- Tata Power Renewable Energy Utility + leading rooftop/PM Surya Ghar installer; 4.3 GW cell/module plant in Tirunelveli.
- JSW Neo Energy / Avaada / Greenko / Juniper Large private RE platforms bidding SECI/NTPC/NHPC/SJVN tenders.
- NextEra Energy Resources Largest US renewables developer; multi-GW solar+storage backlog.
- AES / Invenergy / Intersect Power Large utility-scale solar+storage; data-centre co-location deals.
- Sunrun Largest US residential solar+storage lessor; exposed to 25D expiry end-2025.
- Iberdrola / Enel Green Power / EDP Renovaveis Leading EU utility-scale developers (Spain, Italy, Portugal).
- RWE / Statkraft / Solaria German/Iberian solar; increasing hybridisation with BESS.
- ACWA Power / Masdar Record-low tariff GW-scale solar (Saudi, UAE) with large BESS.
Suppliers · 13
- Waaree Energies India's largest module maker (~15+ GW modules), expanding cells/ingot-wafer; US module plant in Texas.
- Premier Energies Integrated cell + module; Hyderabad; PLI beneficiary.
- Reliance New Energy Jamnagar giga-complex: poly-to-module HJT integrated plant (10 GW first phase).
- Adani Solar (Mundra) Integrated poly-to-module (~10 GW) PLI facility.
- Vikram Solar / Saatvik / Emmvee / Goldi Second-tier module makers adding TOPCon cell capacity ahead of ALMM List-II.
- First Solar CdTe thin-film, ~14 GW US nameplate plus India (Chennai) plant; key beneficiary of 45X and FEOC rules.
- LONGi / JinkoSolar / Trina / JA Solar / Tongwei Chinese majors with ~80%+ global share across the chain; margins negative (~-10%) in 2024-25 glut.
- Nextpower (Nextracker) / Array / GameChange Single-axis trackers; Nextpower ~25-30% global share.
- Sungrow / Huawei / SMA / Power Electronics Central/string inverters and PCS; SMA key EU supplier.
- Sterling & Wilson / L&T / Tata Power Solar / KEC Utility-scale EPC contractors in India/ME/Africa.
- Borosil Renewables Solar glass; protected by anti-dumping duties on Chinese/Vietnamese glass.
- Wacker / Hemlock / OCI Non-Chinese polysilicon for UFLPA-compliant supply chains.
- Heraeus / DuPont / Fusion Silver metallisation paste; copper plating alternatives.
Customers · 6
- State discoms via SECI/NTPC/NHPC/SJVN tenders 25-year fixed tariffs; >40 GW of PPAs unsigned at end-2025 created stranded capacity risk.
- C&I open-access and captive buyers Green Energy Open Access Rules (>=100 kW); group-captive structures.
- Hyperscalers / data centres Largest buyers of US/EU corporate solar PPAs; 24x7 matching drives PV+BESS.
- US utilities and community choice aggregators IRP-driven solar+storage procurements.
- Residential households PM Surya Ghar (1 crore homes target, Rs 75,021 crore subsidy); US 25D expired 31-Dec-2025.
- Green hydrogen / ammonia projects SIGHT programme in India; NEOM in Saudi Arabia.
Project template
Work breakdown
Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.
| ID | Step & timing | Share | O / ML / P |
|---|---|---|---|
| A100 | Site prospecting, resource assessment and land aggregationDevelop · factors: Policy, Labour | 20% | 0.85 / 1 / 1.6 |
| A110 | Tender win / PPA signing and financingDevelop · factors: Power price, Interest rates, Policy | 15% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.8 |
| A120 | Grid connectivity / interconnection approval (GNA, ISO queue)Develop · factors: Grid queue | 25% | 0.85 / 1 / 1.8 |
| A130 | Permits, land conversion and environmental approvalsDevelop · factors: Policy | 12% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.6 |
| B100 | Detailed engineering (layout, DC/AC design, pooling substation)Engineer · EPC · factors: Labour | 10% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.3 |
| C100 | Module and inverter procurement (ALMM/DCR or FEOC-compliant)Procure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Policy, Aluminium | 20% | 0.85 / 1 / 1.5 |
| C110 | Trackers/structures, cables and power transformersProcure · OEM · factors: Steel, Copper, Electrical equipment | 25% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.6 |
| D100 | Site prep, piling and mounting structuresConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel | 20% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.4 |
| D110 | Module installation, DC/AC cabling and invertersConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Copper | 25% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.4 |
| D120 | Pooling substation and dedicated transmission lineConstruct · EPC · factors: Electrical equipment, Labour, Copper | 25% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.6 |
| E100 | Testing, grid-code compliance and COD declarationCommission · factors: Grid queue, Policy | 6% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.7 |
Cost breakdown
Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).
Financial template
Revenue model
Fixed-tariff 25-year PPAs (SECI/state/NTPC in India; utilities and corporates in US/EU), CfDs (EU auctions), merchant/capture-price exposure, plus RECs; rooftop via net-metering savings, leases or C&I PPAs; manufacturers earn per-watt spreads plus PLI/45X incentives.
Margin driver
Capacity utilisation factor
Ramp-up
1 year to steady state
How Capibud uses this pack
A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a solar PV decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 14 parameters, 9 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.
Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.
Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are policy, electrical equipment, grid queue and power price. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.
The 13 price feeds and 25 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.
Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors
- Policy
- Electrical equipment
- Grid queue
- Power price
- Interest rates
- Labour
- Aluminium
Capex tied to a shared factor
- Electrical equipment27.8%
- Labour14.8%
- Policy11.8%
- Steel10.8%
- Copper7.4%
- Aluminium7.1%
- Grid queue5%
Sources
Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.
- iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025/executive-summary
- iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025/executive-summary
- lazard.comhttps://www.lazard.com/media/kcfconhf/lazards-lcoeplus_vf.pdf
- eia.govhttps://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/EMM_Assumptions.pdf
- doi.orghttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2014.07.016
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_India
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_India
- mnre.gov.inhttps://mnre.gov.in/
- fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOPPUSDM
- fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU327211327211
Bring us one real decision in solar PV.
We start it from the Solar PV pack v1.0.0: 14 parameters, 9 swing factors and the 11-step project template, pinned to your decision.