1. Home
  2. Industries
  3. Corporate annual capex portfolio

Industry brief · Life sciences, consumer & services

Corporate annual capex portfolioindustrial company

Generic model of an industrial company's 'regular' annual capital programme: 100-500 small and mid-sized projects across sustaining/maintenance, HSE & regulatory, debottlenecking, growth, IT/digital and energy-efficiency/decarbonisation. Spend is power-law distributed (a handful of projects take half the budget), approvals follow a delegation-of-authority ladder, and the main portfolio risks are chronic under-execution, overruns on small projects that receive little front-end loading, and the hidden cost of deferring sustaining capex. Use it to instantiate a portfolio when a client uploads a capex list.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
10 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%5%10%20%30%40%Probability →Cost impact →Missed shutdown/turnaround window: 20% likely, 5% cost impact, 12 monthsGrid connection delay for electrification/decarb projects: 25% likely, 3% cost impact, 9 monthsBudget cut / envelope reduction mid-year: 25% likely, 5% cost impact, 6 monthsElectrical equipment lead times (transformers, switchgear, MCCs): 35% likely, 5% cost impact, 6 monthsIT/digital project scope creep and benefit shortfall: 40% likely, 30% cost impact, 6 monthsPermitting / regulatory change driving unplanned HSE capex: 20% likely, 5% cost impact, 4 monthsSmall-project overrun due to weak front-end loading: 35% likely, 15% cost impact, 3 monthsContractor and skilled labour scarcity: 35% likely, 4% cost impact, 3 monthsDeferral of sustaining capex causes unplanned failures: 30% likely, 10% cost impact, 1 monthsConstruction input inflation: 35% likely, 6% cost impact, 0 monthsIT/digital project scope…Small-project overrun due…Deferral of sustaining…

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 6 cited sources · 49 parameters · 10 swing factors · 1 source conflict shown side by side.

At a glance

6%Capex intensity annual capex as fraction of revenuerange 3%–12% · estimate
9Construction time · months (median project execution)range 3–30 · estimate
12%Mean cost overrun (portfolio average, small-mid projects)range −5%–40% · estimate
25%Mean schedule overrunrange 0%–80% · estimate

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
Sustaining / maintenance capex (stay-in-business)Replacements, refurbishments, turnaround capital, end-of-life asset renewal; keeps nameplate capacity and reliability.0.3–0.55share of annual capex budgetTypically benchmarked to depreciation (capex/D&A ~0.8-1.2x for sustaining). estimate
HSE & regulatory / complianceEmission controls (FGD, VOC), fire & safety, process safety upgrades, effluent/ZLD, statutory inspections.0.05–0.15share of annual capex budgetNon-discretionary; approved on compliance basis, not IRR. estimate
Debottlenecking / brownfield capacity creepSmall changes that remove constraints (pumps, exchangers, controls) for 5-15% capacity uplift.0.05–0.15share of annual capex budgetUsually highest-return bucket (paybacks 1-3 years). estimate
Growth / expansionNew lines, new plants, new products, acquisitions-related integration capex.0.15–0.45share of annual capex budgetLumpy; dominated by few large projects. estimate
IT / digital / automationERP, MES, APC, IIoT sensors, cybersecurity (OT), data platforms, AI.0.03–0.1share of annual capex budgetSoftware projects have the fattest overrun tails. estimate
Energy efficiency & decarbonisationWaste-heat recovery, VFDs, heat pumps, electrified boilers, captive solar/RE PPAs, fuel switching, CCUS studies.0.04–0.15share of annual capex budgetRising share under net-zero targets and carbon pricing (EU ETS, India CCTS). estimate

Value chain

Inputs

  • strategic plan & capital budget envelope
  • asset condition data (CMMS, RBI)
  • project ideas from sites
  • cost estimates (AACE class 5 -> 3)
  • engineering & contractor capacity
  • equipment and bulk materials
  • turnaround/shutdown windows

Process

  • idea capture
  • FEL1/2/3 stage-gates
  • prioritisation & portfolio optimisation
  • delegation-of-authority approval
  • detailed engineering
  • procurement
  • execution (often in shutdown windows)
  • commissioning & handover
  • post-investment review (PIR)

Outputs

  • maintained capacity & reliability
  • compliance
  • incremental capacity/margin
  • lower energy & emissions intensity
  • digital capabilities

Parameters

49 parameters: 2 sourced, 46 informed estimates, 1 designed (model-definition choices). The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensityannual capex as fraction of revenue6%range 3%–12%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Construction months(median project execution)<USD 1M projects 3-6 months; USD 5-25M 12-24 months9 monthsrange 3–30estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Cost overrun mean(portfolio average, small-mid projects)IPA: poor team development costs sustaining capex projects ~15% more than industry (https://www.ipaglobal.com/services/site-sustaining-capital/); right-skewed with ~10% of projects >50% over12%range −5%–40%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Schedule overrun meansmall projects slip more in % terms; shutdown-dependent projects slip by a full turnaround cycle (1-4 years) if they miss the window25%range 0%–80%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Asset life (years)IT 3-7, equipment 15-25, civil 30-5020 yearsrange 5–40estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
WACCUS/EU industrials 7-9%; India 10-13%9%range 6%–13%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Typical IRR(approved discretionary projects, ex-ante)ex-post realised IRRs typically 20-40% below approval-case IRRs (optimism bias, estimate)20%range 12%–45%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Utilization(budget execution rate)85%range 70%–100%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Opex % of revenue(maintenance opex as % revenue, process industry)3%range 1.5%–6%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
EBITDA margin(generic industrial)15%range 8%–30%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Split sustainingof budget40%range 30%–55%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Split HSE regulatoryof budget10%range 5%–15%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Split debottleneckingof budget10%range 5%–15%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Split growthof budget25%range 15%–45%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Split IT digitalof budget5%range 3%–10%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Split energy decarbof budget10%range 4%–15%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Project size lognormal median (USD)for a USD 100-500M annual programme with 100-300 projects800,000 USDrange 200,000–3,000,000estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Project size lognormal sigma(USD)sigma 1.6 implies mean ~3.6x median; top 5% of projects ~45-55% of spend1.6 lnrange 1.2–2designedas of 5 Oct 2026estimate Informed estimate; no single source
Size band count < 1mof project count55%range 45%–70%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Size band count 1–5mof project count30%range 20%–35%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Size band count 5–25mof project count11%range 6%–15%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Size band count 25–100mof project count3%range 1%–5%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Size band count > 100mof project count1%range 0%–2%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Size band spend < 1mof spend10%range 5%–20%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Size band spend 1–5mof spend22%range 15%–30%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Size band spend 5–25mof spend28%range 20%–35%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Size band spend 25–100mof spend22%range 10%–30%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Size band spend > 100mof spend18%range 0%–35%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Small project failure rateof small/mid projects failing (cost >25% over, schedule >50% late, or operability shortfall)IPA-style definition; small projects get less FEL and weaker teams. Megaprojects fail ~65% (Merrow, Industrial Megaprojects, 2011)30%range 20%–45%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Probability overrun > 50%10%range 5%–20%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
IT project overrun meanMcKinsey/Oxford: large IT projects run 45% over budget and 7% over time while delivering 56% less value45%range 10%–150%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026mckinsey.com
Hurdle rate corporate sources disagree(nominal)survey evidence (Jagannathan, Matsa, Meier & Tarhan, JFE 2016) finds average hurdle ~15% vs WACC ~8-9%; hurdles sticky through rate cycles15%range 12%–20%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Hurdle rate growth15%range 12%–20%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Hurdle rate debottleneckor payback <3 years20%range 15%–30%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Payback max energy efficiency (years)many firms reject EE projects >3 years payback despite IRR >20% (energy-efficiency gap)3.5 yearsrange 2–5estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Payback max IT (years)3 yearsrange 2–4estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Hurdle rate decarb with carbon price(with shadow carbon price)10%range 8%–15%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Approval threshold site (USD)(plant manager DoA)250,000 USDrange 100,000–1,000,000estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Approval threshold BU (USD)(business unit head)2,000,000 USDrange 1,000,000–5,000,000estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Approval threshold CEO CFO (USD)(CEO/CFO / capex committee)10M USDrange 5,000,000–25Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Approval threshold board (USD)(board)or >1-2% of net worth50M USDrange 25M–150Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
India PSU maharatna board limit (INR crore)(or 15% of net worth)DPE delegation: Maharatna INR 5,000 cr; Navratna INR 1,000 cr per project without Government approval5,000 INR crore per projectrange 1,000–5,000sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026dpe.gov.in
Deferral hazard multiplier per yearconsistent with Weibull wear-out (beta 2-3) for ageing rotating/static equipment1.4 x annual failure probability per year deferredrange 1.2–1.8estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Reactive vs planned cost multiplieremergency replacement after failure vs planned replacement incl. expediting2.5 xrange 1.5–5estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Deferral lost production days per failure7 daysrange 1–45estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Q4 spend shareof annual spend in last quarter35%range 25%–45%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Carryover shareof approved budget carried to next year20%range 10%–35%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Contingency class3 estimateAACE class 3 accuracy -10%/-20% to +10%/+30%15%range 10%–20%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Optimism bias NPVby which approval-case NPV exceeds realised25%range 10%–50%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source

Where sources disagree

Kept side by side, not averaged. The pack default is in the table above.

Hurdle rate corporate

Survey hurdles sit well above WACC; both kept.

15%average stated hurdleJagannathan, Matsa, Meier & Tarhan (JFE 2016) · 2016
8.5%average WACC (8-9%)Jagannathan, Matsa, Meier & Tarhan (JFE 2016) · 2016

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
IT/digital project scope creep and benefit shortfallTechnical Shared factors: Labour 0.8 · Policy 0.2Watch: requirement changes; vendor change orders; adoption metrics
40%
30%
6 mo
Small-project overrun due to weak front-end loadingTechnical Shared factors: Labour 0.6 · Construction materials 0.2 · Steel 0.2Watch: % projects approved at class 4/5 estimate; scope changes after approval; owner team staffing
35%
15%
3 mo
Deferral of sustaining capex causes unplanned failuresTechnical Shared factors: Interest rates 0.4 · Steel 0.2 · Labour 0.2 · Electrical equipment 0.2Watch: capex/D&A < 1 for 2+ years; maintenance backlog weeks; RBI overdue inspections; MTBF trend
30%
10%
1 mo
Construction input inflationCommodity Shared factors: Steel 0.35 · Construction materials 0.25 · Copper 0.2 · Aluminium 0.1 · Labour 0.1Watch: PPI industrial building; HRC, copper prices
35%
6%
0 mo
Electrical equipment lead times (transformers, switchgear, MCCs)Supply chain Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.7 · Copper 0.3Watch: transformer lead times (>2 years for LPTs); PPI electrical equipment
35%
5%
6 mo
Contractor and skilled labour scarcityLabour Shared factors: Labour 0.8 · Data-centre demand 0.2Watch: electrician/welder wage inflation; competing megaprojects/data-centre builds
35%
4%
3 mo
Budget cut / envelope reduction mid-yearFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.5 · Oil 0.25 · Gas 0.25Watch: margin compression; guidance revisions; credit rating outlook
25%
5%
6 mo
Missed shutdown/turnaround windowInterface Shared factors: Labour 0.5 · Electrical equipment 0.3 · Steel 0.2Watch: material availability 8 weeks before TA; scope freeze date slippage
20%
5%
12 mo
Permitting / regulatory change driving unplanned HSE capexRegulatory Shared factors: Policy 1Watch: new emission norms; CPCB/EPA rule-making
20%
5%
4 mo
Grid connection delay for electrification/decarb projectsInterface Shared factors: Grid queue 0.7 · Power price 0.3Watch: utility connection queue; substation capacity
25%
3%
9 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
Annual capex envelopeProcess industries 5-10% of revenue; light manufacturing 2-5% (estimate).3%–12%Portfolio size
Capex / D&A ratio<1.0x for several years signals under-investment (asset ageing); sustaining alone ~0.8-1.2x.0.8–2.5xAsset health
Budget execution rate (actual / approved)Chronic under-spend of 10-25% is common; carried-over projects inflate next year's backlog (estimate).70%–100%Portfolio value
Construction & equipment inflationElectrical equipment (transformers, switchgear) saw the steepest 2022-26 inflation and lead times.2%–12%Capex
Interest rates / WACCHurdles rarely move with WACC (sticky ~15%).3–10percentHurdle rate
Industry capacity utilisationGrowth/debottleneck share rises when utilisation >80%.70%–85%Growth capex share
Deferred sustaining backlogEach year of deferral raises failure hazard of affected assets ~30-50% (estimate).0%–150%Failure risk
Internal / external carbon priceShadow carbon price of USD 50-100/t typically doubles the number of decarb projects clearing hurdle (estimate).0–120USD/tCO2Decarb project NPV
Show 2 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
Contractor / skilled labour availabilityTight labour markets during megaproject booms starve small projects of resources.0.6–1.1indexSchedule
Power / fuel priceEnergy-efficiency paybacks scale inversely with energy prices.50–180USD/MWhEnergy project NPV

Price feeds (9)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
US PPI: New industrial building constructionPCU236211236211FREDindexquarterly
US new orders: nondefense capital goods ex-aircraftNEWORDERFREDUSD mnmonthly
US capacity utilisation: total industryTCUFREDpercentmonthly
US PPI: Iron and steelWPU101FREDindexmonthly
US PPI: Electrical equipmentWPU117FREDindexmonthly
Copper pricePCOPPUSDMFREDUSD/tmonthly
US 10-year TreasuryDGS10FREDpercentdaily
US average electricity priceAPU000072610FREDUSD/kWhmonthly
Show 1 more feeds
SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Nifty Infrastructure index^CNXINFRAYahooindexdaily

Listed tickers (14)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Suppliers · 13

  • LT.NS Larsen & Toubro NSE · IN
  • SIEMENS.NS Siemens Ltd (India) NSE · IN
  • ABB.NS ABB India NSE · IN
  • THERMAX.NS Thermax NSE · IN
  • CUMMINSIND.NS Cummins India NSE · IN
  • HONAUT.NS Honeywell Automation India NSE · IN
  • ROK Rockwell Automation NYSE · US
  • EMR Emerson Electric NYSE · US
  • ETN Eaton NYSE · US
  • HON Honeywell NASDAQ · US
  • SIE.DE Siemens AG XETRA · EU
  • SU.PA Schneider Electric Euronext Paris · EU
  • ABBN.SW ABB Ltd SIX · EU

Proxys · 1

  • XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR (capex cycle proxy) NYSE Arca · US

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • Capex execution rate (actual / budget)
  • Capex / D&A (total and sustaining)
  • Sustaining capex per unit capacity (USD/t)
  • % projects within ±10% of approved cost
  • % projects on schedule
  • Portfolio-weighted IRR / NPV per $ invested
  • Post-investment review hit rate (benefits realised)
  • Carry-over backlog %
  • Front-end loading index at sanction
  • Maintenance backlog (weeks)
  • Unplanned downtime / asset availability
  • ROCE
  • Energy & CO2 intensity reduction per $ capex
  • Approval cycle time by DoA tier

Regional notes

IndiaBoard powers under Companies Act s.179/180; PSUs follow DPE delegation (Maharatna up to INR 5,000 cr, Navratna INR 1,000 cr per project) and annual capex targets set by ministries; GeM/tender rules lengthen procurement for PSUs; turnaround schedules dictate sustaining project windows; WACC 10-13% but hurdles 14-18% common.
United StatesTight skilled-labour and electrical equipment markets (data-centre competition); tax incentives (bonus depreciation restored 2025, 45Q/48C) shape decarb capex; hurdle ~15% with WACC 7-9%.
EuropeHigh energy prices and ETS/CBAM push efficiency/decarb share; chemical sector capex cuts and site closures (BASF, Dow Europe); EU Innovation Fund grants.
Middle EastNOC-led programmes with in-country value (IKTVA) rules; strong sustaining budgets.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 11

  • Reliance Industries Mumbai · INLarge multi-segment capex programme; example of mixed sustaining/growth/new-energy portfolio.
  • Tata Steel Mumbai · INSustaining capex ~INR 4,000-5,000 cr/yr plus growth (estimate).
  • UltraTech Cement Mumbai · INSteady capacity additions + WHRS/RE decarb capex.
  • Indian Oil / BPCL / HPCL New Delhi / Mumbai · INPSU capex programmes with DoA ladders; turnaround-linked sustaining capex.
  • Hindalco / Vedanta / JSW Steel Mumbai · INMetals capex portfolios.
  • Dow Midland MI · USCapex ~USD 2.5-3.5bn with explicit maintenance vs growth split (estimate).
  • ExxonMobil Spring TX · USDisciplined portfolio stage-gate (estimate).
  • 3M / Honeywell / Caterpillar US · USDiversified industrials with many small projects.
  • BASF Ludwigshafen · EUCapex cut and site restructuring in Ludwigshafen; Zhanjiang Verbund.
  • ArcelorMittal / Holcim / Saint-Gobain EU · EUDecarbonisation share of capex rising.
  • Saudi Aramco / SABIC Dhahran / Riyadh · MELarge sustaining + growth programmes.

Suppliers · 10

  • Independent Project Analysis (IPA) Services · USBenchmarks >25,000 projects incl. site & sustaining capital.
  • Larsen & Toubro / Tata Projects / Engineers India EPC · INIndian EPC/EPCM for mid-size projects.
  • Bechtel / Fluor / Worley / Jacobs / Wood EPC · USEPCM and framework contracts for brownfield programmes.
  • Siemens / ABB / Schneider / Emerson / Rockwell / Honeywell OEM · EUElectrical, automation and control systems.
  • Thermax / Forbes Marshall / Kirloskar OEM · INUtilities, steam, energy efficiency.
  • SAP / IBM Maximo / Hexagon / AVEVA Software · EUEAM/CMMS, project controls.
  • Oracle Primavera / Deltek / Procore Software · USScheduling and portfolio management.
  • Copperleaf (IFS) / Arcadis Gen / Enodo Software · EUCapital portfolio optimisation / value-based prioritisation.
  • AACE International Services · USCost estimate classification standards (18R-97).
  • McKinsey / BCG / Accenture Services · USCapital productivity programmes.

Customers · 6

  • Plant operations / site management internalSponsors of sustaining, HSE and debottleneck projects.
  • Business units / commercial internalSponsors of growth projects.
  • CFO / capex committee / board governanceAllocates the envelope; approves above thresholds.
  • Regulators (pollution control boards, OSHA, EPA) externalDrive HSE capex.
  • Investors / lenders externalTrack capex/D&A, ROCE, guidance credibility.
  • Sustainability / net-zero office internalSponsors energy and decarb projects.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
C100Idea capture & FEL1 (business case, class 5 estimate)Develop8%0.8 / 1 / 1.5
C200FEL2 option selection (class 4) & portfolio rankingDevelop · factors: Interest rates10%0.85 / 1 / 1.5
C300FEL3 definition (class 3), basic engineeringEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour12%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
C400DoA approval (site/BU/CEO/board tier)Develop · factors: Interest rates, Policy6%0.8 / 1 / 2
C500Detailed engineering & permitsEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour, Policy12%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
C600Procurement of equipment & bulksProcure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Steel, Copper20%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
C700Pre-shutdown construction (tie-in prep, foundations)Construct · EPC · factors: Labour, Construction materials, Steel12%0.9 / 1 / 1.35
C800Shutdown / turnaround execution (tie-ins, installation)Construct · EPC · factors: Labour, Electrical equipment8%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
C900Commissioning, start-up & handoverCommission · factors: Labour7%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
C950Close-out & post-investment review (benefits tracking)Commission5%0.9 / 1 / 1.5

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Equipment (mechanical, rotating, static)30%
    Equipment
    • Steel 50%
    • Electrical equipment 20%
  • Construction & installation labour (incl. shutdown premium)20%
    Labour
  • Electrical, instrumentation & automation15%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 50%
    • Copper 40%
  • Bulk materials (piping, structural, civil)15%
    Construction
    • Steel 50%
    • Construction materials 40%
  • Engineering & owner's team12%
    Engineering
  • Contingency, permits, commissioning spares8%
    Indirects

Financial template

Revenue model

Mixed: sustaining/HSE valued as avoided risk cost (P(failure) x consequence, compliance penalties); debottleneck/growth valued on incremental margin x volume; energy/decarb on energy cost + carbon price savings; IT on productivity. Portfolio optimised for max NPV (incl. risk-avoidance value) under budget envelope and resource constraints.

Margin driver

Capex / D&A ratio

Ramp-up

1 year to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a corporate annual capex portfolio decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 49 parameters, 10 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are labour, policy, electrical equipment and steel. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 9 price feeds and 14 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Labour
  • Policy
  • Electrical equipment
  • Steel
  • Interest rates
  • Grid queue
  • Construction materials
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Steel22.5%
  • Electrical equipment13.5%
  • Copper6%
  • Construction materials6%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. ipaglobal.comhttps://www.ipaglobal.com/services/site-sustaining-capital/
  2. ipaglobal.comhttps://www.ipaglobal.com/about/databases/
  3. mckinsey.comhttps://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/delivering-large-scale-it-projects-on-time-on-budget-and-on-value
  4. rand.orghttps://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R2569.html
  5. wiley.comhttps://www.wiley.com/en-us/Industrial+Megaprojects%3A+Concepts%2C+Strategies%2C+and+Practices+for+Success-p-9780470938829
  6. dpe.gov.inhttps://dpe.gov.in/

Cited without a link

  • Jagannathan, Matsa, Meier & Tarhan (JFE 2016)

Bring us one real decision in corporate annual capex portfolio.

We start it from the Corporate annual capex portfolio pack v1.0.0: 49 parameters, 10 swing factors and the 10-step project template, pinned to your decision.

Talk to us →