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Industry brief · Life sciences, consumer & services

Climate-tech venturesinvestment portfolio mode

Venture and growth investments, minority stakes and acquisitions in energy-transition startups (hydrogen & electrolysers, CCUS, biofuels/SAF, battery recycling, storage, EV charging, solar tech, carbon markets/MRV, industrial decarbonisation, circular plastics). Powers the Capibud 'investment portfolio' mode, e.g. an Indian refiner choosing which green-energy startups to back or buy. Each holding is modelled as a staged option with round-by-round survival probabilities, dilution, time-to-exit and power-law exit multiples. Global climate-tech VC was USD 40.5bn in 2025 (+8%) and USD 26.1bn in H1 2026, increasingly concentrated in growth rounds; India received ~USD 2.6bn in 2025.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
10 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%10%20%40%60%80%Probability →Cost impact →Technology scale-up (FOAK) failure / performance shortfall: 45% likely, 50% cost impact, 18 monthsFollow-on funding gap (Series C valley of death): 40% likely, 60% cost impact, 12 monthsValuation / rate shock (exit multiple compression): 30% likely, 35% cost impact, 12 monthsOfftake / green premium not materialising: 40% likely, 20% cost impact, 9 monthsGrid connection / power price for electrolysis & storage: 35% likely, 15% cost impact, 9 monthsPolicy reversal (US OBBBA credit phase-outs, mandate delays): 35% likely, 30% cost impact, 6 monthsGovernance / integration failure in corporate-startup relationship: 30% likely, 15% cost impact, 6 monthsCross-border regulatory approvals (FEMA/ODI, CCI, CFIUS, EU FDI): 20% likely, 3% cost impact, 4 monthsChinese overcapacity collapses product prices (electrolysers, solar, batteries): 50% likely, 30% cost impact, 0 monthsCommodity price collapse undermines unit economics (lithium, carbon credits): 30% likely, 25% cost impact, 0 monthsFollow-on funding gap

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 25 cited sources · 76 parameters · 10 swing factors · 1 source conflict shown side by side.

At a glance

10MCapex intensity · USD typical ticket per investmentrange 0.5M–150M · estimate
36Construction time · months to first-of-a-kind (FOAK) commercial plant from Series Brange 24–60 · estimate
50%Mean cost overrun (FOAK plant capex overrun)range 20%–150% · sourced
40%Mean schedule overrunrange 10%–100% · estimate

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
Seed & Series A minority stakesTechnology risk dominant; small tickets, high failure rate, option on strategic tech.500,000–15MUSD per ticketIndia tickets USD 0.5-5M; US/EU USD 2-15M (estimate).
Series B/C/growth minority stakesScale-up risk dominant (FOAK plant, manufacturing ramp, offtake).10M–150MUSD per ticketSeries C was the 2025 'valley of death' (investment -32%).
Control acquisition / buyout of a startupCorporate buys majority to internalise technology (e.g. Reliance-REC Solar, Occidental-Carbon Engineering).20M–5bnUSD per deal89% of 2025 climate exits were acquisitions.
JV / project equity in FOAK plantCo-invest in first commercial plant with the startup (e.g. IndianOil-Sun Mobility Indofast JV).20M–1bnUSD per projectFOAK process plants historically overran cost by ~2x (RAND).
Offtake, venture debt & commercial pilotsNon-equity support: offtake contracts, pilots at refinery sites, revenue-based financing.1,000,000–100MUSD per commitmentOften more valuable to a corporate than the equity itself (estimate).

Value chain

Inputs

  • corporate balance sheet / CVC fund
  • co-investor syndicate (VCs, sovereigns)
  • government grants & PLI/SIGHT incentives
  • site access, feedstock and offtake from the corporate parent
  • technical due diligence capacity

Process

  • thesis & sourcing
  • screening
  • technical, commercial and legal due diligence
  • term sheet & valuation
  • regulatory approvals (CCI, FEMA/ODI, DIPAM for PSUs)
  • closing
  • value creation (pilots, offtake, integration)
  • follow-on decisions
  • exit (IPO, trade sale, buyout) or write-off

Outputs

  • financial returns (multiple, IRR)
  • strategic technology access
  • decarbonisation of parent operations (Scope 1-3)
  • new revenue lines
  • option value on future markets

Parameters

76 parameters: 20 sourced, 52 informed estimates, 4 designed (model-definition choices). The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensity10M USD typical ticket per investmentrange 500,000–150Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Construction months36 months to first-of-a-kind (FOAK) commercial plant from Series Brange 24–60estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Cost overrun mean(FOAK plant capex overrun)RAND pioneer process plants study: capital costs commonly ~2x early estimates; 50% is a moderate default50%range 20%–150%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026rand.org
Schedule overrun mean40%range 10%–100%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Asset life (years)(holding period)8 yearsrange 5–12estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
WACC(VC target return / hurdle)seed 35-50%, Series A 30-40%, growth 20-30% target IRRs conventionally used by VCs25%range 15%–40%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Typical IRR(net fund IRR, climate VC)Cleantech 1.0 (2006-11) lost >50% of USD 25bn invested (https://energy.mit.edu/publication/venture-capital-cleantech/)10%range −10%–25%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Utilizationof committed capital deployed in initial ticketsremainder held as follow-on reserves50%range 40%–60%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Opex % of revenueof fund per year (CVC running cost)2%range 1.5%–2.5%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
EBITDA margin(median portfolio company at Series B)−30%range −200%–20%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Probability seed to series A sources disagree(eventual, climate-adjusted)Carta: 15.4% of 2022 seed cohort raised A within 2y (record low) vs 30.6% for 2018; CB Insights: 48% of seed companies raise a second round (https://cbinsights.com/blog/venture-capital-funnel-2)30%range 15%–48%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026carta.com
Probability seed to series A 2-yr 2022 cohort15.4%range 15.4%–30.6%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026carta.com
Probability series A to Bderived from CB Insights funnel (second->third round); climate hardware haircut applied (estimate)50%range 35%–65%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026cbinsights.com
Probability series B to CCB Insights: only 15% of seed companies reach a fourth round; 2025 climate Series C deal count at all-time low (https://www.ctvc.co/40-5bn-and-8-upturn-as-power-demand-drives-25-investment/)45%range 30%–60%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026cbinsights.com
Probability series C to exit(exit at or above last post-money)45%range 30%–60%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Probability exit any from seed(any M&A/IPO incl. small)CB Insights: ~30% of seed-funded tech companies exited (many small); climate hardware lower (estimate)20%range 10%–30%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026cbinsights.com
Probability unicorn from seed1%range 0.25%–1.1%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026cbinsights.com
Share financings below 1xCorrelation Ventures, 21,000+ financings 2004-201365%range 55%–75%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026sethlevine.com
Share financings above 10x4%range 2%–6%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026sethlevine.com
Failure rate seed climatelosing capital70%range 60%–80%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Failure rate growth climatelosing capital2025 notable failures: Northvolt, Sunnova, Li-Cycle, Meyer Burger40%range 25%–55%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Power law alphaalpha<2 implies infinite variance; ~6% of deals generate ~60% of returns (Horsley Bridge data, https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2016/4/28/winning-and-losing)1.2 Pareto tail index of exit multiplesrange 0.9–1.8designedas of 5 Oct 2026estimate Informed estimate; no single source
Power law xmin1 x multiple threshold for tailrange 1–3designedas of 5 Oct 2026estimate Informed estimate; no single source
Lognormal mu exit multiple−0.5 ln(x) for non-tail outcomesrange −1.5–0.5designedas of 5 Oct 2026estimate Informed estimate; no single source
Lognormal sigma exit multiple(x)1.6 lnrange 1.2–2.2designedas of 5 Oct 2026estimate Informed estimate; no single source
Round size seed US (USD)Carta 2026 software median USD 4.1M; climate similar (estimate)4,000,000 USDrange 2,000,000–8,000,000sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026carta.com
Pre money seed US (USD)Carta software median USD 24.3M; climate hardware discount applied (estimate)18M USDrange 10M–30Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026carta.com
Round size A US (USD)Carta median USD 14.4M15M USDrange 8,000,000–30Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026carta.com
Pre money A US (USD)PitchBook climate median pre-money USD 25M (all stages, 2025); carbon tech early-stage ~USD 35M; estimate for A50M USDrange 25M–90Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026pitchbook.brightspotcdn.com
Round size B US (USD)Carta software median USD 25M; climate B rounds larger (2025 average B size back to 2021 levels per Sightline)40M USDrange 20M–100Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Pre money B US (USD)150M USDrange 80M–350Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Round size C US (USD)90M USDrange 50M–250Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Pre money C US (USD)400M USDrange 200M–1bnestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Round size seed EU (USD)EU rounds ~20-30% smaller than US; Europe climate VC fell 13% to USD 10.1bn in 20253,000,000 USDrange 1,500,000–6,000,000estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Pre money seed EU (USD)12M USDrange 7,000,000–20Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Round size A EU (USD)12M USDrange 6,000,000–25Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Pre money A EU (USD)35M USDrange 20M–70Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Round size B EU (USD)35M USDrange 15M–80Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Pre money B EU (USD)110M USDrange 60M–250Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Round size C EU (USD)75M USDrange 40M–200Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Pre money C EU (USD)300M USDrange 150M–800Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Round size seed IN (USD)1,500,000 USDrange 500,000–3,000,000estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Pre money seed IN (USD)6,000,000 USDrange 3,000,000–12Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Round size A IN (USD)Statiq Series A USD 25.7M is the upper end; typical USD 5-10M (estimate)8,000,000 USDrange 4,000,000–25Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026evreporter.com
Pre money A IN (USD)30M USDrange 15M–60Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Round size B IN (USD)Varaha Series B ~USD 45M (first tranche USD 20M)25M USDrange 15M–60Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026entrackr.com
Pre money B IN (USD)100M USDrange 50M–250Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Round size C IN (USD)60M USDrange 30M–150Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Pre money C IN (USD)300M USDrange 150M–700Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Dilution seedconsistent with Carta dilution benchmarks20%range 15%–25%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Dilution series A20%range 15%–25%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Dilution series B16%range 12%–22%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Dilution series C13%range 8%–18%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
ESOP refresh per round3%range 0%–5%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Months seed to A39% of recent seed companies take 3+ years to raise A (Carta data)28 monthsrange 18–42sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026saastr.com
Months A to B26 monthsrange 18–36estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Months B to C26 monthsrange 18–40estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Time to exit (years)climate hardware exits slower than software (7-9y vs 6-7y)8 years from first institutional roundrange 5–12estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Follow on reserve ratio1 reserve $ per $ initial ticketrange 0.5–2estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Min portfolio size for power lawwith alpha~1.2, portfolios <15 names have >50% chance of missing any 10x outcome (estimate)20 companiesrange 15–40estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Target ownership minority12%range 5%–25%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Acquisition control premiumover last post-money30%range 0%–60%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue green hydrogenlisted Nel/ITM/Plug trade at distressed 1-3x; strategic project developers valued on DCF3 x EV/revenuerange 1–6estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue electrolysers2 xrange 0.8–4estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue CCUSstrategic pre-revenue deals (Occidental bought Carbon Engineering for USD 1.1bn in 2023)6 xrange 3–15estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue biofuels SAFNeste ~0.5-1x revenue; tech licensors higher2 xrange 0.5–4estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue battery recyclingRedwood ~USD 6bn valuation on ~USD 200M 2024 revenue (~30x) vs Li-Cycle insolvency; 2-6x typical (estimate)4 xrange 1–30sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026en.wikipedia.org
Exit EV revenue energy storageintegrators (Fluence) <1x; software/VPP 4-8x2.5 xrange 0.5–8estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue EV chargingChargePoint <1x; swapping networks valued on EV/EBITDA when profitable1.5 xrange 0.5–4estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue solar tech2.5 xrange 1–5estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue carbon MRVSaaS-like; Watershed ~USD 1.8bn at 2024 Series C6 xrange 3–12estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue industrial decarb4 xrange 2–8estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit EV revenue circular plastics2 xrange 0.8–4estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Exit mix acquisition shareof exits89%range 80%–95%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026ctvc.co
Global climate VC 2025 (USD)40.5bn USDrange 37.5bn–40.5bnsourcedas of 5 Oct 2026ctvc.co
India climate VC 2025 (USD)2.6bn USDrange 2bn–3bnsourcedas of 5 Oct 2026downtoearth.org.in

Where sources disagree

Kept side by side, not averaged. The pack default is in the table above.

Probability seed to series A

Cohort and definition differ (2-year window vs eventual).

30.6%2018 cohortCarta (2018 seed cohort, A within 2 years) · 2024
15.4%2022 cohort (record low)Carta (2022 seed cohort, A within 2 years) · 2024
48%CB Insights, any second roundcbinsights.com · 2018

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
Follow-on funding gap (Series C valley of death)Financing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.7 · Policy 0.3Watch: Series C deal count (all-time low 2025); down-round share; runway < 12 months
40%
60%
12 mo
Technology scale-up (FOAK) failure / performance shortfallTechnical Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.3 · Interest rates 0.3 · Steel 0.2 · Labour 0.2Watch: pilot uptime; missed nameplate (e.g. Climeworks Mammoth); capex re-estimates
45%
50%
18 mo
Chinese overcapacity collapses product prices (electrolysers, solar, batteries)Market Shared factors: Policy 0.4 · Electrical equipment 0.3 · Aluminium 0.2 · Copper 0.1Watch: Chinese electrolyser/module price; anti-dumping duties; ALMM lists
50%
30%
0 mo
Valuation / rate shock (exit multiple compression)Financing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.9 · Policy 0.1Watch: ICLN drawdown; 10y yields; IPO window
30%
35%
12 mo
Policy reversal (US OBBBA credit phase-outs, mandate delays)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 1Watch: 45V/45Z/30D changes; India NGHM/CCTS notifications; EU ETS reforms
35%
30%
6 mo
Offtake / green premium not materialisingMarket Shared factors: Oil 0.4 · Gas 0.3 · Policy 0.3Watch: signed binding offtakes; SAF/H2 tender clearing prices
40%
20%
9 mo
Commodity price collapse undermines unit economics (lithium, carbon credits)Commodity Shared factors: Policy 0.3 · Oil 0.3 · Copper 0.2 · Gas 0.2Watch: lithium carbonate price; voluntary carbon prices; oil price (green premium)
30%
25%
0 mo
Grid connection / power price for electrolysis & storageInterface Shared factors: Grid queue 0.5 · Power price 0.5Watch: ISTS waiver changes; interconnection queue; RE PPA prices
35%
15%
9 mo
Governance / integration failure in corporate-startup relationshipInterface Shared factors: Labour 0.6 · Policy 0.4Watch: founder attrition post-deal; pilot delays at parent site; approval cycle time
30%
15%
6 mo
Cross-border regulatory approvals (FEMA/ODI, CCI, CFIUS, EU FDI)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 1Watch: ODI limits; CCI deal-value threshold reviews; foreign investment screening
20%
3%
4 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
Global climate-tech VC & growth fundingUSD 40.5bn in 2025, 1,545 deals (-18%); H1 2026 USD 26.1bn (+55%) but deal count -25%.25–55USD bn per yearValuations, Follow on probability
Median climate-tech pre-money valuationPitchBook: USD 25M in 2025 vs 17.5M in 2024; carbon & emissions tech early stage ~USD 35M.14–35USD MEntry price
Seed -> Series A graduation probabilityCarta: 15.4% of 2022 seed cohort raised A within 2 years vs 30.6% for 2018 cohort.15%–50%Portfolio value
Exit EV/revenue multiple (subsector)Driven by listed comps (ICLN constituents, hydrogen pure-plays trade at distressed multiples).0.5–10xExit value
Long-term interest ratesCapital-intensive climate hardware is very rate sensitive; 2022-23 rate rise cut valuations 30-60%.3–7percentValuations, Project finance
Policy support index (IRA/OBBBA, EU, India NGHM/CCTS)US 2025 OBBBA phased out 45V hydrogen credit for projects starting after 2027 and ended EV consumer credits; India National Green Hydrogen Mission (INR 19,744 cr) and SIGHT incentives support electrolysers/green H2.0–1qualitativeRevenue, Exit value
Carbon price (EU ETS / India CCTS)Core revenue driver for CCUS, MRV and industrial decarb business cases.10–120USD/tCO2Revenue
Lithium carbonate price2023-25 lithium price collapse hit recyclers (Li-Cycle bankruptcy 2025) and storage economics.8,000–40,000USD/tRevenue
Show 3 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
Brent crudeLow oil widens the green premium for SAF/biofuels/H2 but also squeezes refiner CVC budgets.55–110USD/bblGreen premium, Parent cashflow
Electrolyser system priceChinese alkaline systems at USD 300-500/kW vs Western PEM USD 1,500-2,000/kW (estimate) drives margin pressure on Western startups.300–2,000USD/kWCapex, Competitiveness
Time from first investment to exitEach extra year at a 3x multiple cuts IRR by ~2-3pt.5–12yearsIRR

Price feeds (8)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
iShares Global Clean Energy ETFICLNYahooUSDdaily
Invesco Solar ETFTANYahooUSDdaily
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETFLITYahooUSDdaily
KraneShares Global Carbon ETFKRBNYahooUSDdaily
US 10-year TreasuryDGS10FREDpercentdaily
Brent crudeDCOILBRENTEUFREDUSD/bbldaily
Nifty Energy index^CNXENERGYYahooindexdaily
USD/INRDEXINUSFREDINR per USDdaily

Listed tickers (21)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Consumers · 4

  • RELIANCE.NS Reliance Industries (RNEL) NSE · IN
  • IOC.NS Indian Oil Corporation NSE · IN
  • BPCL.NS Bharat Petroleum NSE · IN
  • HINDPETRO.NS Hindustan Petroleum NSE · IN

Proxys · 17

  • ADANIGREEN.NS Adani Green Energy NSE · IN
  • NTPCGREEN.NS NTPC Green Energy NSE · IN
  • WAAREEENER.NS Waaree Energies NSE · IN
  • PRAJIND.NS Praj Industries NSE · IN
  • ATHERENERG.NS Ather Energy (2025 IPO) NSE · IN
  • PLUG Plug Power NASDAQ · US
  • BE Bloom Energy NYSE · US
  • FLNC Fluence Energy NASDAQ · US
  • CHPT ChargePoint NYSE · US
  • FSLR First Solar NASDAQ · US
  • PCT PureCycle Technologies NASDAQ · US
  • NEL.OL Nel ASA Oslo · EU
  • ITM.L ITM Power LSE · EU
  • NCH2.DE thyssenkrupp nucera XETRA · EU
  • NESTE.HE Neste Nasdaq Helsinki · EU
  • FAST.AS Fastned Euronext Amsterdam · EU
  • ICLN iShares Global Clean Energy ETF NASDAQ · US

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • Portfolio TVPI / DPI / MOIC
  • Portfolio IRR
  • Graduation rate to next round
  • Loss ratio (capital-weighted)
  • Share of value in top 10% of holdings
  • Ownership at exit after dilution
  • Follow-on reserve coverage
  • Strategic KPIs: tCO2 abated at parent, pilots converted to commercial contracts
  • Time from term sheet to close
  • Runway months per portfolio company
  • Mark-to-market vs entry valuation
  • Number of co-investors per round

Regional notes

IndiaUSD 2.6bn climate funding in 2025; strongest in e-mobility (Battery Smart, SUN Mobility, Statiq), recycling (Lohum, Attero, Recykal), carbon (Varaha). Policy tailwinds: National Green Hydrogen Mission (INR 19,744 cr, SIGHT PLI for electrolysers), CCTS compliance carbon market, PLI ACC batteries, PM E-DRIVE, BESS VGF, Battery Waste & Plastic Waste EPR rules, SAF 1%/2% blending targets (2027/2028), E20. Indian PSU refiners (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL) need board/DIPAM approvals and typically prefer JVs/startup schemes; ODI rules govern overseas stakes; CCI deal-value threshold (INR 2,000 cr) can apply. Exits: domestic IPO market is the most open globally for climate (Ather 2025, Waaree, Premier).
United StatesLargest pool (USD ~ two-thirds of global climate VC); OBBBA (July 2025) curtailed IRA credits for EVs, wind/solar and 45V hydrogen (projects must start construction before 2028) while keeping 45Q CCUS and 45Z clean fuels; data-centre power demand is the new demand anchor.
EuropeClimate VC fell 13% to USD 10.1bn in 2025 (lowest since 2020); strong policy pull (ETS, RED III RFNBO mandates, ReFuelEU SAF 2% 2025/6% 2030) but high-profile failures (Northvolt, Meyer Burger) and slower FIDs on hydrogen.
Middle EastAramco/ADNOC/Masdar are active strategic investors and co-investors; giga-scale green ammonia (NEOM) shapes hydrogen pricing.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 12

  • Reliance Industries / RNEL Mumbai · INLargest Indian acquirer of climate tech (REC Solar, Faradion, Lithium Werks, NexWafe, Caelux, Ambri, Altigreen).
  • Indian Oil Corporation New Delhi · INIndofast JV, IOC Phinergy, SAF with LanzaJet, green H2 at Panipat.
  • Bharat Petroleum Mumbai · INProject Ankur; net-zero 2040 plan incl. renewables and CBG.
  • Hindustan Petroleum Mumbai · INHP Udgam; HPCL Renewable & Green Energy.
  • HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) New Delhi / Bathinda · INRefiner-petchem; potential new CVC entrant.
  • Adani Group Ahmedabad · INBuilds in-house; green H2 at Mundra/Khavda.
  • Shell London · EUShell Ventures.
  • bp London · EUbp ventures; retrenching.
  • Equinor Stavanger · EUEquinor Ventures.
  • Saudi Aramco Dhahran · MEAramco Ventures sustainability fund.
  • Chevron Houston · USCTV Future Energy Funds.
  • Occidental Houston · USDAC acquisitions (Carbon Engineering, Holocene).

Suppliers · 10

  • Breakthrough Energy Ventures Services · USLead co-investor in deep climate.
  • TPG Rise Climate Services · USGrowth investor (Ohmium, Twelve, Form).
  • Temasek / GenZero Services · APACSovereign co-investor.
  • Lowercarbon Capital / Khosla / DCVC Services · USEarly-stage climate VCs.
  • Kiko Ventures / Planet A / Extantia / World Fund Services · EUEuropean climate VCs.
  • Avaana Capital / Blume / Omnivore / Speciale Invest / Pi Ventures / Ankur Capital Services · INIndian early-stage climate investors.
  • WestBridge / Lightspeed India / Elevation / LeapFrog Services · INIndian growth investors in climate.
  • Sightline Climate (Currence) / PitchBook / Carta / Tracxn Software · USMarket data for deal comps.
  • Technical DD firms (E4tech/ERM, Wood, DNV, Lux Research) Services · EUTechnology due diligence.
  • Law/tax advisors (AZB, Cyril Amarchand, Khaitan; Latham, Cooley) Services · INCross-border deal structuring (FEMA/ODI).

Customers · 6

  • Refinery & petrochemical operations of the investing corporate strategic offtakerGreen H2, CCUS, heat batteries, pyrolysis oil feedstock.
  • Fuel retail networks (~90,000 Indian outlets) mobilityEV charging/swapping deployment channel.
  • Airlines (SAF offtake) aviationAir India, IndiGo SAF mandates from 2027.
  • Utilities / data centres powerStorage and clean firm power demand.
  • Steel, cement, fertiliser producers industrialGreen ammonia, CCUS, low-carbon materials.
  • Corporates buying carbon credits carbon marketsCCTS compliance and voluntary buyers.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
V100Investment thesis, sourcing & pipeline buildingDevelop · factors: Policy, Interest rates12%0.8 / 1 / 1.5
V200Screening & strategic fit scoringDevelop6%0.8 / 1 / 1.4
V300Technical due diligence (TRL, scale-up, lab/pilot audit)Engineer · factors: Labour12%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
V400Commercial, financial & legal due diligence; valuationEngineer · factors: Interest rates10%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
V500Term sheet, negotiation, board / DIPAM approvalsProcure · factors: Policy8%0.8 / 1 / 2
V600Regulatory clearances (CCI, FEMA/ODI, foreign FDI screening) & closingProcure · factors: Policy6%0.8 / 1 / 2
V700Pilot at parent site / offtake agreementConstruct · EPC · factors: Electrical equipment, Labour, Steel, Grid queue16%0.85 / 1 / 1.8
V800FOAK commercial plant / scale-up (co-invest)Construct · EPC · factors: Electrical equipment, Steel, Interest rates, Power price18%0.9 / 1 / 2
V900Follow-on round decisions & portfolio rebalancingCommission · factors: Interest rates, Policy6%0.8 / 1 / 1.6
V950Exit (trade sale, IPO, buyout of minority) or write-offCommission · factors: Interest rates, Policy6%0.7 / 1 / 2.5

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Initial equity tickets45%
    Develop
  • Follow-on reserves30%
    Develop
  • Pilot / FOAK co-investment capex at parent sites15%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 40%
    • Steel 30%
    • Copper 10%
  • CVC team, platform & integration costs5%
    Indirects
  • Due diligence & advisory3%
    Engineering
  • Legal, regulatory & deal closing costs2%
    Indirects

Financial template

Revenue model

Portfolio value = sum over holdings of P(survive each round) x ownership after dilution x exit EV (revenue x subsector multiple, power-law tail) minus invested capital; strategic value from offtake savings, avoided carbon cost and technology access is added separately.

Margin driver

Exit EV/revenue multiple (subsector)

Ramp-up

8 years to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a climate-tech ventures decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 76 parameters, 10 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are interest rates, policy, electrical equipment and labour. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 8 price feeds and 21 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Interest rates
  • Policy
  • Electrical equipment
  • Labour
  • Oil
  • Steel
  • Gas
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Electrical equipment6%
  • Steel4.5%
  • Copper1.5%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. ctvc.cohttps://www.ctvc.co/40-5bn-and-8-upturn-as-power-demand-drives-25-investment/
  2. ctvc.cohttps://www.ctvc.co/h1-2025-climate-tech-investment-capital-stacking-up-for-energy-security-resilience/
  3. esgtoday.comhttps://www.esgtoday.com/climate-tech-funding-surges-in-h1-2026-on-growing-data-center-demand-for-low-carbon-power-report/
  4. pitchbook.brightspotcdn.comhttps://pitchbook.brightspotcdn.com/99/96/badc1db34d4683341eb68a9fc740/q4-2025-climate-tech-vc-trends-preview.pdf
  5. carta.comhttps://carta.com/data/linkedin-seed-to-series-a-hard-in-every-sector/
  6. carta.comhttps://carta.com/data/linkedin-seed-to-series-a-still-uphill-battle/
  7. carta.comhttps://carta.com/data/linkedin-vc-fundraising-benchmarks-2026/
  8. saastr.comhttps://www.saastr.com/your-seed-round-now-needs-to-last-3-years-what-3365-startups-tell-us-about-the-new-series-a-timeline
  9. cbinsights.comhttps://cbinsights.com/blog/venture-capital-funnel-2
  10. cbinsights.comhttps://www.cbinsights.com/blog/unicorn-conversion-rate/
  11. sethlevine.comhttps://www.sethlevine.com/archives/2014/08/venture-outcomes-are-even-more-skewed-than-you-think.html
  12. ben-evans.comhttps://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2016/4/28/winning-and-losing
  13. energy.mit.eduhttps://energy.mit.edu/publication/venture-capital-cleantech/
  14. rand.orghttps://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R2569.html
  15. downtoearth.org.inhttps://www.downtoearth.org.in/amp/story/energy/indias-climate-tech-funding-reaches-128-bn-as-energy-security-concerns-drive-investment-surge
  16. businesswire.comhttps://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230426005330/en/5430903/Green-Hydrogen-Company-Ohmium-Closes-250-Million-Series-C-Fundraise-Led-by-TPG-Rise-Climate
  17. raising.fihttps://raising.fi/company/lohum
  18. entrackr.comhttps://entrackr.com/news/climate-tech-startup-varaha-raises-20-mn-in-series-b-led-by-westbridge-capital-11074654
  19. constructionworld.inhttps://www.constructionworld.in/amp/policy-updates-and-economic-news/recykal-raises-usd-23-mn-bridge-round/93325
  20. evreporter.comhttps://evreporter.com/statiq-raises-usd-25-7m-in-series-a-funding-round-led-by-shell-ventures/
  21. autocarpro.inhttps://autocarpro.in/news-national/sun-mobility-gets-$50-million-from-vitol-to-accelerate-global-ev-infra-network-80274
  22. autocarpro.inhttps://autocarpro.in/news/ipo-bound-attero-recycling-to-invest-rs-1500-crore-in-five-years-in-india-117185
  23. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redwood_Materials
  24. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Form_Energy
  25. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climeworks

Cited without a link

  • Carta (2018 seed cohort, A within 2 years)
  • Carta (2022 seed cohort, A within 2 years)

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We start it from the Climate-tech ventures pack v1.0.0: 76 parameters, 10 swing factors and the 10-step project template, pinned to your decision.

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