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Industry brief · Energy & chemicals

Upstream oil & gasE&P

Exploration, appraisal, development and production of crude oil, condensate and natural gas, from short-cycle US shale wells (USD 8-11m per well, 12-18 month payback) to long-cycle deepwater FPSO developments (USD 3-10bn, 3-7 years FID to first oil). The 2026 Iran war (from late Feb 2026) and Strait of Hormuz disruption (Gulf shut-ins peaked ~12 mb/d in May 2026) pushed Brent above USD 110/bbl and reframed upstream capex around security of supply, while global oil supply investment is still falling (<USD 500bn in 2026) and gas spending hits a decade high (~USD 330bn). Project risk is dominated by price volatility, long-lead FPSO/subsea/turbine supply chains, OCTG steel tariffs, fiscal changes and offshore hook-up/commissioning overruns.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
12 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%2.5%5%10%15%Probability →Cost impact →Oil price collapse after peace deal / demand destruction (FID or sanction economics break): 35% likely, 0% cost impact, 12 monthsLong-lead FPSO, turbine & compressor delivery delays: 45% likely, 10% cost impact, 9 monthsHormuz / Middle East conflict escalation or prolonged closure: 45% likely, 8% cost impact, 6 monthsOffshore hook-up, integration & commissioning overrun: 40% likely, 8% cost impact, 6 monthsGas price / offtake risk (administered pricing, LNG glut post-crisis): 30% likely, 0% cost impact, 6 monthsRig & vessel availability / dayrate inflation: 35% likely, 5% cost impact, 4 monthsFiscal regime change / windfall taxes / licensing freezes: 35% likely, 5% cost impact, 3 monthsCost of capital & ESG-driven financing constraints: 30% likely, 2% cost impact, 3 monthsSkilled labour & crew shortage: 30% likely, 3% cost impact, 2 monthsMarine logistics, freight & insurance spikes: 40% likely, 2% cost impact, 2 monthsOCTG and steel tariff inflation: 50% likely, 4% cost impact, 1 monthsReservoir / subsurface underperformance (lower EUR, faster decline, water breakthrough): 30% likely, 12% cost impact, 0 monthsLong-lead FPSO, turbine &…HormuzReservoir

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 24 cited sources · 17 parameters · 12 swing factors.

At a glance

40,000Capex intensity · USD per flowing boe/d (deepwater default)range 15,000–80,000 · sourced
48Construction time · months (FID to first oil, deepwater)range 12–84 · estimate
20%Mean cost overrunrange 0%–60% · sourced
35%Mean schedule overrunrange 0%–80% · sourced

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
Onshore conventional fields (incl. EOR)Vertical/deviated wells, waterflood and EOR (polymer, ASP) on mature onshore fields - e.g. Rajasthan Mangala (Vedanta), Assam (Oil India), Middle East onshore giants.8,000–30,000USD per flowing boe/dLowest-cost new supply: Rystad average breakeven onshore Middle East ~USD 27/bbl Brent (https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/upstream-breakeven-shale-oil-inflation). Vedanta plans USD 200m Mangala recovery capex in FY27. Intensity range is an estimate.
US shale / tight oilMulti-well pads with 2-4 mile horizontal laterals and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing in the Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford; very short cycle, steep first-year decline (60-70%).15,000–30,000USD per flowing boe/d (first-year avg)Base case well USD 10.9m all-in (drilling 3.5m, completion 4.5m), D&C USD 685-1,000 per lateral ft, EUR 1.2 MMboe (https://energiesmedia.com/the-economics-of-a-u-s-horizontal-oil-well-from-drilling-and-completion-to-first-production/). Dallas Fed Q1 2026: new-well breakeven avg USD 66/bbl WTI, Permian USD 67 (https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2601).
Shallow-water offshore (shelf, fixed platforms)Jacket platforms, wellhead platforms and subsea tie-backs in <300 m water - Mumbai High, KG shallow, North Sea, Gulf shelf.20,000–45,000USD per flowing boe/dRystad average breakeven offshore shelf ~USD 37/bbl. ONGC Mumbai High redevelopment with BP as technical service provider. Intensity range is an estimate.
Deepwater / ultra-deepwater (FPSO, subsea)Floating production (FPSO/semi/spar) with subsea SURF (trees, manifolds, umbilicals, risers, flowlines) in 500-3,000 m water - Guyana, Brazil pre-salt, US Gulf of America, Barents Sea, KG-DWN-98/2.35,000–80,000USD per flowing boe/dJohan Castberg: NOK 80bn (~USD 7.4bn) for ~190 kb/d = ~USD 39k per flowing b/d, +40% vs PDO and ~2 years late (https://offshore-energy.biz/2023/09/19/johan-castberg-fpso-still-on-track-for-first-oil-next-year-but-cost-estimate-jumps-to-7-4-billion). FPSO units USD 0.34-4.6bn each, 180-250 kb/d (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/South-America-Dominates-Global-FPSO-Market-With-181-Billion-Deepwater-Buildout.html). Rystad deepwater breakeven ~USD 43/bbl.
Gas field development (onshore/offshore, incl. LNG feed gas)Non-associated gas developments with processing (dehydration, CO2/H2S removal, compression) feeding pipelines or LNG trains - KG-D6 (Reliance-BP), ONGC KG-98/2 gas, Qatar North Field, East Med, Norway.15,000–50,000USD per flowing boe/dEconomics hinge on regulated/administered gas price (India APM/HPHT ceiling) or LNG-linked pricing (TTF/JKM). IEA: global natural gas spending ~USD 330bn in 2026, highest in a decade (https://www.arabnews.com/business/global-energy-investment-to-hit-record-34tn-despite-middle-east-conflict-iea-2645474). Intensity range is an estimate.

Value chain

Inputs

  • seismic & subsurface data
  • drilling rigs (land rigs, jack-ups, drillships)
  • OCTG casing & tubing (steel)
  • frac sand/proppant, water, chemicals
  • wellheads, X-mas trees, subsea production systems
  • FPSO hulls, topsides modules, gas turbines & compressors
  • umbilicals, risers, flowlines (SURF)
  • offshore installation & support vessels
  • skilled crews, engineering
  • licences / PSC / fiscal terms

Process

  • exploration (seismic, wildcat wells)
  • appraisal & reservoir modelling
  • concept select & FEED
  • development drilling & completions
  • facilities construction (FPSO/platform/CPF)
  • subsea installation & hook-up
  • production operations & water/gas injection
  • EOR / infill drilling
  • decommissioning

Outputs

  • crude oil
  • condensate
  • natural gas (pipeline / LNG feed)
  • NGLs (ethane, propane, butane)
  • associated sulphur / CO2

Parameters

17 parameters: 13 sourced, 4 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensity(deepwater default)40,000 USD per flowing boe/drange 15,000–80,000sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026offshore-energy.biz
Construction months(FID to first oil, deepwater)48 monthsrange 12–84estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Guyana fast-track ~30-36 months; Castberg 2017 PDO to 2025 start; shale pad 6-12 months
Cost overrun mean20%range 0%–60%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026bain.com
Schedule overrun mean35%range 0%–80%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026bain.com
Asset life (years)25 yearsrange 8–40estimateas of 5 Oct 2026shale well economic life ~20 yrs; FPSO design life 25-30 yrs
WACC(USD nominal, US E&P; India INR ~+4-5 pts, estimate)6.2%range 5.5%–13%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026pages.stern.nyu.edu
Typical IRR18%range 10%–47%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026energiesmedia.com
Utilization(facility uptime)92%range 80%–97%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Opex % of revenue25%range 12%–45%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
EBITDA margin(US E&P EBITDA/sales)43.2%range 30%–70%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026pages.stern.nyu.edu
New well breakeven WTI66 USD/bblrange 62–70sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026dallasfed.org
Existing well breakeven WTI43 USD/bblrange 34–47sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026dallasfed.org
Shale DC cost per lateral ft700 USD/ftrange 685–1,000sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026energiesmedia.com
Shale well cost(10,000 ft lateral, all-in)10.9M USD per wellrange 8,000,000–13Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026energiesmedia.com
Deepwater breakeven Brent43 USD/bblrange 35–60sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026rystadenergy.com
FPSO unit cost2.5bn USDrange 339M–4.6bnsourcedas of 5 Oct 2026oilprice.com
India deepwater exploration well cost100M USD per wellrange 90M–120Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026psuwatch.com

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
Long-lead FPSO, turbine & compressor delivery delaysSupply chain Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.6 · Steel 0.3 · Labour 0.3Watch: gas turbine/compressor lead times (12->60 months); FPSO yard slot availability; Dallas Fed supplier delivery time index (36.2 Q3 2026)
45%
10%
9 mo
Hormuz / Middle East conflict escalation or prolonged closureGeopolitical Shared factors: Oil 0.7 · Gas 0.5 · Policy 0.4Watch: Gulf shut-ins (mb/d); Hormuz transits per day; VLCC freight & war-risk premia; US-Iran peace talks headlines; Qatar LNG force majeure status
45%
8%
6 mo
Reservoir / subsurface underperformance (lower EUR, faster decline, water breakthrough)Technical Shared factors: Oil 0.3Watch: early-well IP vs type curve; pressure depletion; water cut; parent-child well interference
30%
12%
0 mo
Offshore hook-up, integration & commissioning overrunInterface Shared factors: Labour 0.6 · Oil 0.2Watch: carry-over work at sail-away (% incomplete); punch-list counts; POB constraints offshore
40%
8%
6 mo
OCTG and steel tariff inflationCommodity Shared factors: Steel 0.8 · Policy 0.5Watch: PPI steel pipe & tube (WPU101706); Section 232 tariff actions; OCTG distributor inventories
50%
4%
1 mo
Rig & vessel availability / dayrate inflationSupply chain Shared factors: Oil 0.6 · Labour 0.3Watch: UDW drillship utilisation & dayrates; PCU213111213111 drilling PPI; jack-up contracting in Middle East/India
35%
5%
4 mo
Fiscal regime change / windfall taxes / licensing freezesRegulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.9 · Oil 0.4Watch: UK EPL reform debate; India windfall/SAED announcements; OALP bid deadline extensions; Norway tax changes
35%
5%
3 mo
Skilled labour & crew shortageLabour Shared factors: Labour 0.9Watch: oilfield employment; yard manhour productivity; North Sea workforce decline (115k jobs at risk)
30%
3%
2 mo
Marine logistics, freight & insurance spikesSupply chain Shared factors: Oil 0.5 · Policy 0.3Watch: VLCC Gulf-China freight (> USD 30/bbl Aug 2026); war-risk insurance premia; heavy-lift vessel availability
40%
2%
2 mo
Cost of capital & ESG-driven financing constraintsFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.8 · Policy 0.3Watch: E&P high-yield spreads; bank fossil lending policies; share of cash to buybacks (50% for large E&Ps)
30%
2%
3 mo
Oil price collapse after peace deal / demand destruction (FID or sanction economics break)Market Shared factors: Oil 0.9 · Interest rates 0.2Watch: Brent forward curve backwardation; OPEC+ spare capacity return; Dallas Fed WTI expectations (USD 79 two-year); inventory draws turning to builds
35%
0%
12 mo
Gas price / offtake risk (administered pricing, LNG glut post-crisis)Market Shared factors: Gas 0.8 · Policy 0.4Watch: India APM/HPHT ceiling revisions; TTF/JKM forward curves; new LNG supply wave 2026-2028
30%
0%
6 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
Brent crude pricePrimary revenue driver; ~USD 114 on 2026-09-29 vs Dallas Fed respondents' USD 79 (2-yr) / 82 (5-yr) WTI expectations - project models should not use spot. Each USD 10/bbl shifts deepwater NPV10 by ~15-25% (estimate).55–130USD/bblRevenue, FID timing, Service cost inflation
WTI crude priceUS shale activity responds within 3-6 months; new-well breakeven USD 62-70 (Dallas Fed Q1 2026).50–120USD/bblRevenue (US), Rig count
Brent-WTI spreadWidened to ~USD 12-18 in 2026 as Hormuz disruption hit seaborne crude more than landlocked US barrels.2–18USD/bblUS realised price, Export arbitrage
Henry Hub gas priceAssociated gas is a by-product in the Permian; HH ~USD 3.2 (Sep 2026) keeps US gas-directed drilling modest.2–6USD/MMBtuRevenue (gas/associated gas)
EU TTF gas price~USD 17.9 (Jul 2026) with Qatar LNG force majeure; drives Norwegian/UK gas project value.8–40USD/MMBtuRevenue (Norway/UK/East Med gas), LNG netbacks
US shale new-well breakeven (WTI)Dallas Fed Q1 2026: USD 66 average (62-70 by basin), up USD 1 y/y; existing-well opex breakeven USD 43.55–75USD/bblDrilling activity, Capex
Drilling oil & gas wells PPIRig and drilling service rates; ~flat 2025-26 (403 -> 406) despite oil spike as operators held discipline.350–480indexCapex (D&C)
Oil & gas field machinery PPI+5% Jan 2025-Aug 2026 (326 -> 343).300–380indexCapex (wellheads, pumps, rigs equipment)
Show 6 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
Steel pipe & tube PPI (OCTG proxy)+23% Jan 2025-Aug 2026 (353 -> 434) on Section 232 steel tariffs; Dallas Fed respondents cite OCTG tariff impact.300–480indexCapex (casing/tubing ~8-12% of well cost)
US drilling activity indexLeading indicator of service tightness and supply-chain lead times.80–130index (2017=100)Service capacity, Cost inflation
FPSO unit costLarge (180-250 kb/d) units USD 2.5-4.6bn; turbine/compressor lead times stretched 12->60 months, forcing pre-FID ordering.0.34–4.6USD bnCapex (deepwater)
Ultra-deepwater drillship dayrateSpread cost of a deepwater well ~2x dayrate; ONGC cites USD ~100m per Indian deepwater exploration well. Range is an estimate.350–550USD k/dayCapex (deepwater wells)
Gulf (Hormuz-linked) oil shut-insPeaked ~12 mb/d May 2026; 6.7 mb/d Aug 2026; forecast 5.7 mb/d Q4 2026; normalisation targeted Q2 2027.0–12mb/dOil price, Non-Gulf project value, Security-of-supply policy
Government take / windfall leviesUK headline 78% incl. Energy Profits Levy to 2030; India special additional excise duty mechanism; Norway 78% with uplift/refund. Range is an estimate.40%–85%Post-tax NPV

Price feeds (15)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Brent crude spotDCOILBRENTEUFREDUSD/bbldaily
WTI crude spot (Cushing)DCOILWTICOFREDUSD/bbldaily
Henry Hub natural gas spotDHHNGSPFREDUSD/MMBtudaily
EU natural gas (TTF), World BankPNGASEUUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
Japan/Asia LNG, World BankPNGASJPUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
PPI crude petroleum (domestic production)WPU0561FREDindexmonthly
PPI drilling oil & gas wellsPCU213111213111FREDindexmonthly
PPI oil & gas field machinery & equipmentPCU333132333132FREDindexmonthly
Show 7 more feeds
SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
PPI steel pipe & tube (OCTG proxy)WPU101706FREDindexmonthly
Industrial production: drilling oil & gas wellsIPN213111SFREDindex 2017=100monthly
Industrial production: oil & gas extractionIPG211SFREDindex 2017=100monthly
WTI crude front-month futures (NYMEX)CL=FYahooUSD/bbldaily
Brent crude futuresBZ=FYahooUSD/bbldaily
Henry Hub natural gas futuresNG=FYahooUSD/MMBtudaily
Dutch TTF gas futuresTTF=FYahooEUR/MWhdaily

Listed tickers (37)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 19

  • ONGC.NS Oil and Natural Gas Corporation NSE · IN
  • OIL.NS Oil India NSE · IN
  • VEDL.NS Vedanta (Vedanta Oil & Gas / Cairn) NSE · IN
  • RELIANCE.NS Reliance Industries (KG-D6 with bp) NSE · IN
  • HINDOILEXP.NS Hindustan Oil Exploration Co NSE · IN
  • XOM ExxonMobil NYSE · US
  • CVX Chevron NYSE · US
  • COP ConocoPhillips NYSE · US
  • OXY Occidental Petroleum NYSE · US
  • EOG EOG Resources NYSE · US
  • FANG Diamondback Energy NASDAQ · US
  • DVN Devon Energy NYSE · US
  • SHEL Shell plc (ADR) NYSE · EU
  • BP.L BP plc LSE · EU
  • EQNR.OL Equinor Oslo · EU
  • TTE.PA TotalEnergies Euronext Paris · EU
  • ENI.MI Eni Borsa Italiana · EU
  • AKRBP.OL Aker BP Oslo · EU
  • 2222.SR Saudi Aramco Tadawul · ME

Suppliers · 16

  • SLB SLB NYSE · US
  • HAL Halliburton NYSE · US
  • BKR Baker Hughes NASDAQ · US
  • NOV NOV Inc. NYSE · US
  • WFRD Weatherford International NASDAQ · US
  • FTI TechnipFMC NYSE · US
  • SPM.MI Saipem Borsa Italiana · EU
  • SUBC.OL Subsea7 Oslo · EU
  • SBMO.AS SBM Offshore Euronext Amsterdam · EU
  • RIG Transocean NYSE · US
  • VAL Valaris NYSE · US
  • TEN.MI Tenaris (OCTG) Borsa Italiana · EU
  • TS Tenaris (ADR) NYSE · US
  • JINDRILL.NS Jindal Drilling & Industries NSE · IN
  • DEEPINDS.NS Deep Industries NSE · IN
  • ABAN.NS Aban Offshore (distressed driller) NSE · IN

Consumers · 2

  • PETRONET.NS Petronet LNG NSE · IN
  • GSPL.NS Gujarat State Petronet NSE · IN

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • Capex per flowing boe/d
  • Finding & development cost (USD/boe)
  • Full-cycle breakeven (USD/bbl Brent)
  • D&C cost per lateral foot
  • Days spud-to-TD / rig release-to-first production
  • Reserve replacement ratio
  • Production vs plateau target (% of nameplate)
  • Facility uptime / production efficiency
  • Lifting cost (USD/boe)
  • FID-to-first-oil months vs sanction plan
  • Capex & schedule variance vs FID estimate
  • Free cash flow breakeven (USD/bbl)

Regional notes

IndiaIndia imports ~88% of its crude and was hit hard by the Hormuz crisis (LPG crunch, import bill surge in Apr-Jun 2026). Policy push: OALP-X/XI rounds (deadline extended to 15 Nov 2026), Samudra Manthan deepwater mission, ONGC Rs 1 trillion deepwater plan (87 wells) and KG-DWN-98/2 ramp (~21 kb/d oil; gas to 6-7 MMSCMD by FY28), Vedanta's USD 5bn growth plan. ONGC has raised its long-run price deck to USD 75+, making deepwater wells (~USD 100m each) viable. Risks: administered gas prices, windfall duty, slow approvals, limited deepwater rig/vessel supply.
United StatesShale remains the swing short-cycle supply: new-well breakeven USD 66 (Permian 67), EIA sees crude 13.8 mb/d in 2026 and 14.3 mb/d in 2027. Cost headwinds from Section 232 steel/OCTG tariffs (steel pipe PPI +23%) and lengthening supplier delivery times; producers stay disciplined (large E&Ps return ~50% of cash to shareholders). Gulf of America deepwater (Shell Mars records, Chevron Anchor) benefits from expanded leasing.
EuropeUK: Energy Profits Levy (78% headline) runs to 2030 with industry lobbying for early repeal amid steep decline; no-new-licences stance limits greenfield. Norway: stable 78% tax with investment incentives; Johan Castberg (NOK 80bn, +40%, ~2 years late) on stream 2025 with nearby tie-back discoveries in 2026. EU gas security (TTF ~USD 18/MMBtu, Qatar FM) supports Norwegian/East Med gas developments.
Middle EastGround zero of the 2026 disruption: Gulf shut-ins peaked ~12 mb/d, 6.7 mb/d in Aug 2026 (Saudi 3.55, Iraq 1.16, Iran 1.0); >30 energy facilities damaged; Saudi East-West and UAE Habshan-Fujairah bypass lines ~4.7 mb/d nameplate. Restarts risk reservoir damage (Iraq/Kuwait slowest). NOC capex likely re-prioritised toward bypass export routes, storage and repairs.
Asia-PacificChinese and Korean yards dominate FPSO hull/topsides fabrication; Asian buyers most exposed to Hormuz, spurring equity-oil and LNG diversification deals.
Latin AmericaBrazil pre-salt and Guyana anchor the global FPSO pipeline (~36 units, ~USD 181bn 2021-2030).

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 14

  • ONGC New Delhi, India · IN~70% of India's domestic output; FY27 target ~39 MMT oil+gas (40 MMT FY28); KG-DWN-98/2 producing ~21 kb/d oil and ~1.5 MMSCMD gas, gas to 6-7 MMSCMD by Q4 FY28; Rs 1 trillion deepwater plan, 87 wells over 5 years; long-run oil view raised to USD 75+ (https://psuwatch.com/newsupdates/ongc-sees-oil-at-75-plus-in-the-long-run-says-deepwater-wells-now-viable).
  • Oil India Duliajan, Assam, India · INAssam/Arunachal onshore, Rajasthan heavy oil, Andaman offshore exploration; partner in OALP blocks.
  • Vedanta Oil & Gas (Cairn) Gurugram, India · IN~87 kboe/d (FY26) from 44 blocks; USD 5bn plan over ~3 years targeting ~500 kboe/d within 5 years via Rajasthan EOR, deepwater west coast, shale (https://pulse2.com/vedanta-oil-gas-to-invest-5-billion-to-boost-production-fivefold/).
  • Reliance Industries - bp (KG-D6) Mumbai, India · INKG-D6 R-Cluster, Satellite, MJ deepwater gas fields ~30 MMSCMD class; bp evaluating OALP-X deepwater blocks.
  • ExxonMobil Spring, Texas, USA · USPermian (post-Pioneer) and Guyana Stabroek (~one FPSO per year, Longtail FPSO est. USD 2.5bn).
  • Chevron Houston, USA · USPermian, Gulf of America (Anchor 20k psi), Tengiz, Hess-Guyana stake, East Med gas.
  • ConocoPhillips Houston, USA · USLower-48 shale (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken), Alaska Willow, Norway.
  • Occidental / EOG / Diamondback / Devon Houston/Midland/OKC, USA · USPure-play US shale operators; Dallas Fed large-firm new-well breakeven USD 59 vs USD 68 for small firms.
  • Shell London, UK · EUDeepwater (Gulf of America Mars/Vito/Whale, Brazil), integrated gas/LNG.
  • BP London, UK · EURefocused on upstream; Gulf of America, India (KG-D6, Mumbai High TSP), evaluating OALP-X.
  • Equinor Stavanger, Norway · EUJohan Castberg (~220 kb/d capacity, on stream Mar 2025, NOK 80bn); Johan Sverdrup; July 2026 discovery near Castberg.
  • TotalEnergies / Eni / Aker BP Paris / Rome / Oslo · EUDeepwater Africa, Brazil, Suriname (Total); Eni dual exploration model; Aker BP Yggdrasil (NCS).
  • Saudi Aramco / ADNOC / QatarEnergy Dhahran / Abu Dhabi / Doha · MESaudi shut-ins ~3.55 mb/d in Aug 2026; East-West Petroline bypass; QatarEnergy LNG force majeure extended late Sep 2026; 2 of 14 Ras Laffan trains damaged (IEA).
  • Petrobras Rio de Janeiro, Brazil · LATAMLargest FPSO buyer; Buzios, Mero pre-salt in 2,000-3,100 m water.

Suppliers · 14

  • SLB Services · USIntegrated well construction, subsea (OneSubsea JV), digital.
  • Halliburton Services · USPressure pumping/frac fleets leader in US shale.
  • Baker Hughes OEM · USGas turbines & compressors for FPSO topsides/LNG - lead times a key FPSO constraint.
  • TechnipFMC OEM · USSubsea 2.0 / iEPCI integrated SURF + subsea production systems.
  • SBM Offshore / MODEC / BW Offshore EPC · EUFPSO lease & EPCI (SBM Fast4Ward hulls); SBM lifted 2026 outlook on strong H1.
  • Saipem / Subsea7 / McDermott EPC · EUOffshore EPCI, SURF installation, pipelay and heavy-lift vessels.
  • Transocean / Valaris / Noble Services · USUltra-deepwater drillships and harsh-environment semisubmersibles; dayrates ~USD 350-550k/d (estimate).
  • Tenaris / Vallourec / Nippon Steel Materials · EUOCTG casing & tubing; US Section 232 tariffs lifted steel pipe PPI ~23% Jan 2025-Aug 2026.
  • NOV / Weatherford OEM · USRig equipment, drill pipe, completions, managed pressure drilling.
  • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&T EH) EPC · INMain offshore EPC for ONGC wellhead/process platforms and pipelines.
  • Jindal Drilling / Deep Industries / Aban Offshore Services · INIndian jack-up/onshore rig and gas compression/workover providers to ONGC & Oil India.
  • Hanwha Ocean / Samsung Heavy / Chinese yards (COSCO, CMHI, BOMESC) EPC · APACFPSO hull & topsides fabrication; Chinese yards winning increasing FPSO work (Upstream, Sep 2026).
  • Wood / KBR / Technip Energies EPC · EUConcept select, FEED and PMC for offshore/gas processing.
  • Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders EPC · INBuilds ONGC offshore platforms and support vessels.

Customers · 6

  • Refiners (IOC, Reliance Jamnagar, Valero, Shell refineries) crude offtakeIndia imports ~88% of crude; domestic crude priced at import parity.
  • LNG exporters / liquefaction (QatarEnergy, US Gulf LNG, Norway Hammerfest) feed gasUpstream gas tied to LNG offtake; Qatar FM tightened global LNG.
  • City gas distribution & pipelines (GAIL, GSPL, IGL) domestic gasIndia APM/HPHT gas priced under administered formulas.
  • Power generators gas-fired powerGas demand from peakers / data-centre-driven load in the US.
  • Fertilizer & petrochemical plants feedstock gas/NGLsEthane/LPG/naphtha feed; Gulf exports disrupted in 2026.
  • National oil security (strategic reserves - ISPRL, US SPR) governmentG7 coordinated stock release Oct 2026.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
A100Exploration & appraisal (seismic, discovery & appraisal wells, reservoir model)Develop · factors: Oil, Labour12%0.8 / 1 / 1.6
A110Concept select (FPSO vs TLP/tie-back, well count, export route)Develop · factors: Oil6%0.85 / 1 / 1.4
A120Licensing & approvals (FDP/PDO, ESIA, PSC/fiscal terms, environmental clearance)Develop · factors: Policy10%0.85 / 1 / 1.8
A200FEED (FPSO topsides & hull, SURF, wells) and pre-FID long-lead reservationsEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour, Electrical equipment10%0.85 / 1 / 1.4
A210FID, financing & EPCI / FPSO lease contract awardDevelop · factors: Oil, Interest rates3%0.9 / 1 / 2
A300FPSO hull construction / VLCC conversion (long-lead)Procure · EPC · factors: Steel, Labour30%0.9 / 1 / 1.35
A310Topsides modules fabrication incl. gas turbines, compressors, power generation (long-lead)Procure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Steel, Labour35%0.9 / 1 / 1.45
A320Subsea SURF procurement (trees, manifolds, umbilicals, risers, flowlines)Procure · OEM · factors: Steel, Copper, Electrical equipment28%0.9 / 1 / 1.35
A400Topsides integration, yard commissioning & sail-awayConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel14%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
A410Development drilling & completions (pre-drill batch, producers & injectors)Construct · EPC · factors: Oil, Steel, Labour35%0.85 / 1 / 1.4
A420Offshore SURF installation (pipelay, riser & umbilical installation)Construct · EPC · factors: Labour, Oil12%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
A500Offshore hook-up (mooring, riser pull-in, tie-in) & pre-commissioningConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour8%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
A510Offshore commissioning, start-up & first oilCommission · EPC · factors: Labour, Electrical equipment5%0.9 / 1 / 1.7
A520Ramp-up to plateau (well clean-up, water/gas injection start, performance test)Commission · factors: Labour, Oil8%0.85 / 1 / 1.8

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Development drilling & completions (rigs, OCTG, completions)30%
    Construction
    • Steel 30%
    • Labour 30%
    • Oil 20%
  • FPSO hull & topsides (incl. turbines, compressors, process modules)30%
    Equipment
    • Steel 40%
    • Electrical equipment 25%
    • Copper 5%
  • Subsea production systems & SURF18%
    Equipment
    • Steel 45%
    • Electrical equipment 15%
    • Copper 10%
  • Marine installation, hook-up & heavy-lift vessels8%
    Construction
    • Labour 40%
    • Oil 30%
  • Engineering, FEED & project management6%
    Engineering
    • Labour 80%
  • Owner's costs: appraisal, seismic, permits, local content4%
    Develop
    • Policy 30%
  • Commissioning, start-up & spares2%
    Commissioning
    • Labour 60%
  • Logistics, insurance & indirects2%
    Indirects
    • Oil 30%

Financial template

Revenue model

Sale of crude/condensate at Brent/WTI-linked prices less quality/location differentials, plus gas at Henry Hub/TTF/LNG-linked or administered (India APM/HPHT) prices; net of royalty, PSC profit-petroleum split, windfall levies and income tax.

Margin driver

Brent crude price

Ramp-up

2 years to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a upstream oil & gas decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 17 parameters, 12 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are oil, labour, policy and electrical equipment. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 15 price feeds and 37 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Oil
  • Labour
  • Policy
  • Electrical equipment
  • Gas
  • Steel
  • Interest rates
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Steel29.1%
  • Labour18.2%
  • Electrical equipment10.2%
  • Oil9%
  • Copper3.3%
  • Policy1.2%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. dallasfed.orghttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2601
  2. dallasfed.orghttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2603
  3. arabnews.comhttps://www.arabnews.com/business/global-energy-investment-to-hit-record-34tn-despite-middle-east-conflict-iea-2645474
  4. reuters.comhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/natural-gas-spending-hit-10-year-high-2026-oil-investment-falls-iea-says-2026-05-28/
  5. rystadenergy.comhttps://www.rystadenergy.com/news/upstream-breakeven-shale-oil-inflation
  6. bain.comhttps://www.bain.com/insights/energy-transition-delivering-capital-projects-on-time-and-on-budget/
  7. bu.eduhttps://www.bu.edu/igs/2025/05/19/investment-risk-for-energy-infrastructure-construction-is-highest-for-nuclear-power-plants-lowest-for-solar/
  8. offshore-energy.bizhttps://offshore-energy.biz/2023/09/19/johan-castberg-fpso-still-on-track-for-first-oil-next-year-but-cost-estimate-jumps-to-7-4-billion
  9. oilprice.comhttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/South-America-Dominates-Global-FPSO-Market-With-181-Billion-Deepwater-Buildout.html
  10. energiesmedia.comhttps://energiesmedia.com/the-economics-of-a-u-s-horizontal-oil-well-from-drilling-and-completion-to-first-production/
  11. cruxinvestor.comhttps://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/6-7-million-barrels-per-day-gulf-shut-ins-expose-oils-route-to-market-risk
  12. woodmac.comhttps://www.woodmac.com/blogs/the-edge/how-quickly-can-gulf-oil-exports-recover/
  13. psuwatch.comhttps://psuwatch.com/newsupdates/ongc-sees-oil-at-75-plus-in-the-long-run-says-deepwater-wells-now-viable
  14. business-standard.comhttps://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/ongc-to-spend-1-trillion-on-deepwater-exploration-drill-87-wells-126083101458_1.html
  15. pulse2.comhttps://pulse2.com/vedanta-oil-gas-to-invest-5-billion-to-boost-production-fivefold/
  16. chinimandi.comhttps://www.chinimandi.com/indias-crude-import-dependence-at-88-despite-diversification-push/
  17. m.economictimes.comhttps://m.economictimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/govt-extends-bidding-deadline-for-oalp-x-and-xi-to-november-15-2026-amid-offshore-exploration-drive/articleshow/134005965.cms
  18. eia.govhttps://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php
  19. theguardian.comhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/sep/15/scrap-windfall-tax-oil-gas-firms-north-sea-energy-bills-oeuk
  20. blogs.worldbank.orghttps://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging
  21. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU101706
  22. upstreamonline.comhttps://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/chinese-yard-wins-multimillion-dollar-fpso-work/2-1-2051368
  23. pages.stern.nyu.eduhttps://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/wacc.html
  24. pages.stern.nyu.eduhttps://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html

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