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Industry brief · Materials, infrastructure & industry
Ports, terminals & shipbuilding
Greenfield and brownfield deep-water ports, container/bulk/liquid terminals, transshipment hubs, dredging and hinterland connectivity, plus commercial and naval shipbuilding. India is building mega-ports (Vadhavan INR 76,220 cr, Galathea Bay transshipment, Vizhinjam opened May 2025) under Sagarmala (839 projects, ~INR 5.79 lakh cr) and a shipbuilding push; the US is trying to revive shipbuilding (Hanwha Philly, port-fee policy on Chinese ships); 2026 Gulf war and Red Sea/Bab al-Mandab crises have upended routings — Jebel Ali's Q2-2026 volumes fell 90% y/y.
Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 15 cited sources · 13 parameters · 10 swing factors · 1 source conflict shown side by side.
At a glance
Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources
Sub-industries
Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.
| Sub-industry | Capex intensity | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Container terminal (greenfield/brownfield)Quay, yard, STS/RTG/ASC cranes, TOS; PPP concessions (25-30 yrs). | 250–1,200USD per TEU/yr capacity | Low end = berth on existing breakwater; high end = offshore reclamation (estimate). |
| Greenfield deep-water / offshore portBreakwaters, reclamation, capital dredging, multiple terminals (e.g., Vadhavan, Galathea Bay). | 10–40USD million per Mtpa capacity | Vadhavan INR 76,220 cr (~USD 8.7bn) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vadhavan_Port); Galathea Bay ICTP INR 41,000 cr for phase-wise 4m→16m TEU (estimate on capacity). |
| Dry bulk & liquid terminalsCoal/ore/fertiliser berths with conveyors; POL/LNG jetties and tank farms. | 8–40USD per tpa | estimate |
| Transshipment hubDeep-draft hub with minimal hinterland (Vizhinjam, Galathea Bay, Colombo). | 400–1,200USD per TEU/yr | Vizhinjam inaugurated 2 May 2025 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vizhinjam_International_Seaport_Thiruvananthapuram). |
| Shipbuilding & repair yardDry docks, ship-lift, panel lines, cranes; commercial and naval. | 200–3,000USD million per yard | Greenfield large yards USD 1-3bn (estimate); Hanwha bought Philly Shipyard for USD 100m (2024). |
| Inland waterways & coastal shipping terminalsNW-1 (Ganga) terminals, Ro-Pax, coastal berths. | 10–120USD million per terminal | estimate |
Value chain
Inputs
- sea-front land & concessions
- rock & armour units (breakwater)
- dredging fleet
- steel piles & sheet piles
- cement/concrete
- STS/yard cranes
- TOS software
- shipbuilding steel plate
- marine engines & propulsion
- labour (welders, fitters)
Process
- traffic study & master plan
- concession award
- marine investigations
- breakwater & reclamation
- capital dredging
- berth & quay construction
- yard & equipment
- rail/road connectivity
- terminal operations
- ship design, hull fabrication, outfitting, sea trials
Outputs
- TEU and tonnes handled
- vessel calls
- storage/dwell revenue
- marine services
- newbuild ships (tankers, bulkers, container ships, naval)
- ship repair
Parameters
13 parameters: 0 sourced, 13 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.
| Parameter | Default & range | Evidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capex intensity(container terminal) | 600 USD per TEU/yr capacityrange 250–1,500 | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Construction monthsBrownfield terminal 24-36 months; offshore greenfield port 6-8 years (Vadhavan phase 1 targeted ~2029-30, estimate). | 48 monthsrange 24–96 | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Cost overrun mean sources disagreeMarine works sit between Flyvbjerg 2026 bridges (26%) and tunnels (36%) (https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.15757); MoSPI shipping projects show ~0.3% revised-vs-original (Mar 2026) but few projects tracked. | 30%range 0%–100% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Schedule overrun mean | 35%range 0%–120% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Asset life (years)Concessions 30 years (+ extension); breakwaters 50-100 years. | 40 yearsrange 25–60 | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| WACC | 10%range 8%–13% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Typical IRR | 15%range 10%–22% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Utilization | 70%range 40%–95% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Opex % of revenue | 40%range 25%–65% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| EBITDA marginIndian private port operators ~55-70% (estimate). | 58%range 35%–75% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Revenue share to authorityof gross revenueIndian major-port PPP revenue share/royalty bids. | 25%range 10%–45% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Concession years | 30 yearsrange 20–50 | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Shipyard build (months)(merchant) | 24 months per vesselrange 12–48 | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
Where sources disagree
Kept side by side, not averaged. The pack default is in the table above.
What moves value
Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.
Market signals
What moves the case
Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.
| Variable | Typical range | Affects |
|---|---|---|
| Throughput vs capacityTerminal EBITDA highly operating-levered above ~60% utilisation (estimate). | 40%–95% | Revenue |
| Deep-sea freight price index+32% y/y Aug 2026 amid Hormuz/Red Sea disruptions. | 380–560index | Revenue |
| Dry bulk freight (BDRY ETF proxy for Baltic indices)Bulk port volumes and shipping demand. | 5–30USD | Revenue |
| Terminal handling tariffIndia major-port PPPs moved to market-linked tariffs (reference tariff indexed to WPI) (estimate). | 60–200USD/TEU | Revenue |
| Steel (piles, plate for shipbuilding)Hull steel ~15-25% of merchant ship cost (estimate). | 250–420index | Capex |
| US ship building & repairing PPINewbuild price proxy (260 Aug 2026). | 220–280index | Revenue, Capex |
| Bunker / crude oilShipping cost and dredging fuel. | 55–130USD/bbl | Opex |
| Construction materials PPIBreakwater rock, concrete, piles. | 300–400index | Capex |
Show 2 more variables
| Variable | Typical range | Affects |
|---|---|---|
| Terminal EBITDA marginPrimary margin driver for port concessions. | 35%–75% | Revenue, Opex |
| India / US 10Y30-year concession valuations are rate-sensitive. | 3–7.5 | Financing |
Price feeds (12)
| Series | Source / id | Unit | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPI: deep sea freight transportation | PCU483111483111FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: ship building & repairing | PCU336611336611FRED | index | monthly |
| Freight Transportation Services Index | TSIFRGHTFRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: iron & steel | WPU101FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: construction materials | WPUSI012011FRED | index | monthly |
| Brent crude | DCOILBRENTEUFRED | USD/bbl | daily |
| India 10Y yield | INDIRLTLT01STMFRED | % | monthly |
| US 10Y Treasury | DGS10FRED | % | daily |
Show 4 more feeds
| Series | Source / id | Unit | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF | BDRYYahoo | USD | daily |
| US Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF | SEAYahoo | USD | daily |
| Drewry World Container Index | Drewry:WCIother | USD/FEU | weekly |
| Baltic Dry Index | BalticExchange:BDIother | index | daily |
Listed tickers (22)
Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.
Operators · 12
- ADANIPORTS.NS Adani Ports & SEZ NSE · IN
- JSWINFRA.NS JSW Infrastructure NSE · IN
- GPPL.NS Gujarat Pipavav Port (APM Terminals) NSE · IN
- COCHINSHIP.NS Cochin Shipyard NSE · IN
- MAZDOCK.NS Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders NSE · IN
- GRSE.NS Garden Reach Shipbuilders NSE · IN
- HII Huntington Ingalls (shipbuilding) NYSE · US
- MAERSK-B.CO A.P. Moller-Maersk (APM Terminals) Nasdaq Copenhagen · EU
- HHFA.DE HHLA (Hamburg port) XETRA · EU
- FCT.MI Fincantieri Borsa Italiana · EU
- 329180.KS HD Hyundai Heavy Industries KRX · APAC
- 042660.KS Hanwha Ocean (Philly Shipyard owner) KRX · APAC
Suppliers · 3
- KCR.HE Konecranes (port cranes) Nasdaq Helsinki · EU
- KALMAR.HE Kalmar (port equipment) Nasdaq Helsinki · EU
- WRT1V.HE Wärtsilä (marine engines) Nasdaq Helsinki · EU
Consumers · 6
- CONCOR.NS Container Corporation of India NSE · IN
- SCI.NS Shipping Corporation of India NSE · IN
- GESHIP.NS Great Eastern Shipping NSE · IN
- MATX Matson NYSE · US
- ZIM ZIM Integrated Shipping NYSE · APAC
- HLAG.DE Hapag-Lloyd XETRA · EU
Proxys · 1
- BDRY Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF NYSE Arca · US
Trends and research findings
Trends
- Sagarmala at scale2025-2035
839 projects worth ~INR 5.79 lakh cr to 2035: 241 completed (INR 1.22 lakh cr), 234 under implementation (INR 1.8 lakh cr), 364 in development (INR 2.78 lakh cr).
- Indian mega-ports & transshipment2025-2035
Vizhinjam inaugurated 2 May 2025; Vadhavan (INR 76,220 cr) under construction; Galathea Bay ICTP (INR 41,000 cr) phase 1 4m TEU targeted 2028.
- Gulf war collapses Gulf port volumes2026-2027
Hormuz largely blocked since 28 Feb 2026; Jebel Ali handled 374k TEU in Q2-2026 (−90.1% y/y) and 3.1m TEU in H1 (−59.5%).
- Freight rates surge2026-2027
US deep-sea freight PPI +32% y/y (Aug 2026); Bab al-Mandab crisis from Sep 2026 compounds Red Sea diversions.
- India shipbuilding push2025-2035
Defence yards pivot to commercial ships: Mazagon exploring large commercial shipbuilding with Korean/Japanese partners (Mar 2026) and a greenfield yard MoU at Dugarajapatnam (Sep 2026); Cochin bidding for SCI tankers.
- US shipbuilding revival via Korean capital2025-2032
Hanwha acquired Philly Shipyard (USD 100m, 2024); US policy targets Chinese-built ships and cranes.
Research findings
- Sagarmala portfolio economics
Only ~21% of Sagarmala investment value (INR 1.22 of 5.79 lakh cr) was complete; 279 port-connectivity projects worth ~INR 2.06 lakh cr are a key interface risk.
- War-risk insurance shock
Hormuz war-risk premia rose from 0.125% to 0.2-0.4% of hull value per transit before strikes, then 4-6x by 9 Mar 2026; P&I cover withdrawn from 5 Mar 2026.
- Reference-class proxies for marine works
Flyvbjerg et al. (2026): bridges +26%, tunnels +36%, water +20% mean real cost overrun — used as bounds for breakwater/dredging-heavy ports (no port class in the 2026 table).
- MoSPI shipping & IWT
PAIMANA Mar 2026: 7 shipping projects (INR 14,726 → 14,767 cr) and 2 inland waterway projects (INR 5,546 → 5,258 cr) — small, mostly on budget; mega ports are outside central-sector monitoring via SPVs/PPPs.
- Throughput growth of leader
Adani Ports handled 420 MMT in FY2023-24, +24% y/y.
- Shipyard order concentration
Cochin Shipyard order book INR 21,100 cr at 30 Jun 2025, of which 66% Indian Navy — commercial shipbuilding still sub-scale.
KPIs, regions and who builds
KPIs the pack tracks
Regional notes
| India | Sagarmala (839 projects, INR 5.79 lakh cr), Maritime India Vision 2030 / Amrit Kaal 2047, mega-ports (Vadhavan, Galathea Bay, Vizhinjam) and a shipbuilding package with financial assistance, a maritime development fund and cluster development (estimate ~INR 69,725 cr, 2025). Private operators (Adani, JSW) dominate growth; CRZ/environment and fishers' opposition are recurring critical-path risks. |
|---|---|
| United States | Landlord ports funded via IIJA PIDP; policy targeting Chinese-built ships and cranes (s301) and shipbuilding revival (Korean investment, Hanwha Philly). Deep-sea freight PPI +32% y/y (Aug 2026). |
| Europe | Energy-transition hubs (hydrogen, CCS, offshore wind ports) in Rotterdam/Antwerp; EU ETS covers shipping since 2024; TEN-T maritime space. |
| Middle East | 2026 Iran war: Hormuz largely blocked, Jebel Ali Q2-2026 TEU −90% y/y; Saudi/UAE diverting via Yanbu and Fujairah; Bab al-Mandab crisis from Sep 2026. |
Who builds and operates
Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.
Operators · 14
- Adani Ports & SEZ 420 MMT cargo FY24 (+24%); Mundra, Vizhinjam (inaugurated 2 May 2025), Haifa, Colombo WCT; Gopalpur acquired 2024.
- Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA) / Vadhavan Port Project Ltd Vadhavan INR 76,220 cr, JNPA 74% / MMB 26%, groundbreaking 30 Aug 2024.
- JSW Infrastructure Fast-growing private port operator (estimate ~170 MTPA capacity).
- ANIIDC (Great Nicobar / Galathea Bay ICTP) Transshipment port INR 41,000 cr; total island project INR 81,000 cr (2025).
- DP World Jebel Ali Q2-2026 TEU −90.1% y/y on Hormuz closure; Indian terminals (Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Chennai).
- APM Terminals (Maersk) Pipavav; global terminal portfolio.
- PSA International Tuas mega-port; BMCT at JNPA.
- Terminal Investment Ltd (MSC) Carrier-owned terminals.
- Port of Rotterdam / Antwerp-Bruges / HHLA Landlord ports; energy-transition hubs.
- Port Authority of NY&NJ / Port of LA-Long Beach / Georgia Ports US landlord ports; IIJA Port Infrastructure Development Program.
- Cochin Shipyard Order book INR 21,100 cr (30 Jun 2025), 66% navy; bidding for SCI product tankers (2026).
- Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Naval; exploring large commercial shipbuilding (Mar 2026); MoU for greenfield yard at Dugarajapatnam (18 Sep 2026).
- Hanwha Ocean / Hanwha Philly Shipyard Bought Philly Shipyard for USD 100m (2024); US shipbuilding revival anchor.
- HD Hyundai / Samsung Heavy / Fincantieri Global yards; Korean partnerships with Indian yards (estimate).
Suppliers · 10
- ZPMC ~70% of global STS crane market (estimate); US tariffs/scrutiny on Chinese cranes.
- Konecranes / Kalmar / Liebherr STS, RTG, straddle carriers, automation.
- Navis (Kaleris) / Tideworks / CyberLogitec Terminal operating systems.
- Jan De Nul / DEME / Boskalis / Van Oord / DCI Capital dredging & reclamation; Dredging Corporation of India.
- Larsen & Toubro / Afcons / ITD Cementation / Shapoorji Breakwaters, berths.
- AECOM / Royal HaskoningDHV / Moffatt & Nichol / AECOM India Port master planning, marine design.
- Wärtsilä / MAN Energy Solutions Marine engines, dual-fuel propulsion.
- SAIL / JSW / POSCO (ship plate) Shipbuilding steel.
- Tata Steel / ArcelorMittal (sheet piles) Piles, tubular steel.
- ABB / Siemens Energy (shore power) Electrification, onshore power supply.
Customers · 6
- Container shipping lines (MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE) Alliance reshuffles (Gemini 2025) shift hub choices.
- Bulk shippers (coal, iron ore, fertiliser) Power, steel, agriculture.
- Oil & gas/LNG importers Refiners, city-gas; Hormuz exposure.
- Exporters/importers & 3PLs (CONCOR, DSV, Kuehne+Nagel) Hinterland via DFC/rail.
- Navies & governments Indian Navy (66% of Cochin order book), US Navy MSRA repairs.
- Ship owners (SCI, Great Eastern, Greek owners) Indian flagging & domestic-build incentives.
Project template
Work breakdown
Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.
| ID | Step & timing | Share | O / ML / P |
|---|---|---|---|
| P100 | Traffic study, master plan & techno-economic feasibilityDevelop · factors: Labour | 8% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.4 |
| P200 | Concession award / PPP & financial closureDevelop · factors: Interest rates, Policy | 10% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.6 |
| P300 | EC/CRZ clearances & stakeholder consultationDevelop · factors: Policy | 15% | 0.9 / 1 / 2 |
| P400 | Marine investigations (bathymetry, geotech, metocean) & designEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour | 10% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.4 |
| P500 | Breakwater constructionConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Oil, Labour | 35% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.6 |
| P600 | Capital dredging & reclamationConstruct · EPC · factors: Oil, Construction materials | 30% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.6 |
| P700 | Berth / quay wall construction (piled deck or caisson)Construct · EPC · factors: Steel, Construction materials | 30% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.5 |
| P800 | Yard paving, buildings & utilitiesConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Electrical equipment | 20% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.4 |
| P900 | Cargo-handling equipment procurement & erection (STS, RTG/ASC)Procure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Steel | 30% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.5 |
| P1000 | TOS, gate automation, shore power & grid connectionConstruct · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Grid queue | 12% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.5 |
| P1100 | Hinterland rail/road connectivityConstruct · EPC · factors: Policy, Construction materials | 30% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.8 |
| P1200 | Trial operations & first vessel callsCommission · factors: Labour | 5% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.5 |
| P1300 | Volume ramp-up & carrier service acquisitionCommission · factors: Oil, Policy | 15% | 0.8 / 1 / 2 |
Cost breakdown
Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).
Financial template
Revenue model
Terminal handling, storage and marine charges per TEU/tonne under 30-year concessions with revenue share or royalty to the port authority; shipyards earn on fixed-price newbuild/repair contracts (milestone payments) with steel and FX risk.
Margin driver
Terminal EBITDA margin
Ramp-up
3 years to steady state
How Capibud uses this pack
A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a ports, terminals & shipbuilding decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 13 parameters, 10 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.
Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.
Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are policy, construction materials, labour and oil. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.
The 12 price feeds and 22 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.
Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors
- Policy
- Construction materials
- Labour
- Oil
- Steel
- Interest rates
- Electrical equipment
Capex tied to a shared factor
- Construction materials29.8%
- Steel13.1%
- Oil13%
- Electrical equipment11.9%
- Interest rates2.4%
- Policy2.1%
- Labour1.8%
Sources
Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagar_Mala_project
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vadhavan_Port
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vizhinjam_International_Seaport_Thiruvananthapuram
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Nicobar_Island_Development_Project
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adani_Ports_&_SEZ
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochin_Shipyard
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazagon_Dock_Shipbuilders
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanwha_Philly_Shipyard
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war
- fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU483111483111
- fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU336611336611
- arxiv.orghttps://arxiv.org/abs/2606.15757
- paimana-proj.mospi.gov.inhttps://paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in/Content/ArchiveReport/flash/2025-26/FlashReport_March_2026.pdf
- transport.ec.europa.euhttps://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-themes/infrastructure-and-investment/trans-european-transport-network-ten-t_en
Cited without a link
- MoSPI infrastructure monitoring (Mar 2026)
Bring us one real decision in ports, terminals & shipbuilding.
We start it from the Ports, terminals & shipbuilding pack v1.0.0: 13 parameters, 10 swing factors and the 13-step project template, pinned to your decision.