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Industry brief · Energy & chemicals

Biofuelsethanol, SAF, biogas

Production of liquid and gaseous renewable fuels: 1G ethanol from cane/molasses and grain (maize, FCI rice, corn), 2G cellulosic ethanol, sustainable aviation fuel (HEFA, alcohol-to-jet, Fischer-Tropsch), renewable diesel/HVO, FAME biodiesel and compressed biogas (CBG/RNG). Economics are set by policy (administered prices, blending mandates, RINs, LCFS credits, 45Z, ReFuelEU) and by the spread between feedstock (grain, sugar, vegetable oils, UCO/tallow, residues) and the fossil fuel being displaced. The 2026 Hormuz oil shock (Brent ~$114/bbl in late Sep 2026) has strengthened the energy-security case for blending in India and the EU, while feedstock competition, surplus Indian distillery capacity and US/EU policy volatility drive capital-project risk.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
12 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%5%10%20%30%40%Probability →Cost impact →FOAK technology & commissioning failure (2G ethanol, ATJ, FT/e-SAF): 40% likely, 30% cost impact, 18 monthsOfftake allocation / administered-price risk (surplus distillery capacity, LTOA vs non-LTOA, E20 plateau): 50% likely, 10% cost impact, 6 monthsUS policy volatility (RVOs, SRE waivers, 45Z final rules & GREET updates, E15): 45% likely, 12% cost impact, 6 monthsVehicle compatibility & consumer backlash on higher blends (E20 -> E27/E30): 30% likely, 5% cost impact, 6 monthsCBG feedstock aggregation, offtake and pipeline-connectivity risk: 45% likely, 12% cost impact, 6 monthsLong-lead equipment and materials escalation (SS fermenters, columns, hydrotreater reactors, compressors): 35% likely, 8% cost impact, 4 monthsFinancing cost and working capital stress (MSME CBG, sugar-mill distilleries): 35% likely, 6% cost impact, 4 monthsHEFA/RD margin squeeze and waste-lipid feedstock competition: 45% likely, 10% cost impact, 3 monthsFood-vs-fuel, water and land-use ESG pressure: 30% likely, 4% cost impact, 3 monthsFeedstock price/availability shock (maize, FCI rice repricing, sugar-diversion curbs): 45% likely, 8% cost impact, 2 monthsOil price normalisation after Hormuz peace deal eroding blending economics: 35% likely, 6% cost impact, 0 monthsUtility and hydrogen input costs (steam, power, natural gas for H2): 35% likely, 5% cost impact, 0 monthsFOAK technology &…US policy volatilityCBG feedstock aggregation,…

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 44 cited sources · 21 parameters · 12 swing factors.

At a glance

1.8Capex intensity · INR crore per KLPD (1G grain distillery reference)range 1–2.5 · estimate
20Construction time · monthsrange 12–48 · estimate
15%Mean cost overrunrange 5%–60% · estimate
25%Mean schedule overrunrange 5%–150% · sourced

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
1G ethanol - cane juice / B-heavy & C-heavy molassesSugar-mill-attached distilleries fermenting cane juice/syrup or B-heavy/C-heavy molasses; multi-feed conversions to grain are common in India to run beyond the crushing season.1–1.6INR crore per KLPDApprox USD 110k-180k per KLPD at ~INR 90/USD (estimate). ESY 2025-26 ex-mill prices: cane juice/syrup INR 65.61/L, B-heavy INR 60.73/L, C-heavy INR 57.97/L (https://www.chinimandi.com/government-discloses-ethanol-procurement-cost-of-over-rs-71-per-litre-for-omcs-in-fy26/). Capex range is an estimate.
1G ethanol - grain (maize, FCI rice, damaged grain; US corn dry mill)Dry-mill distilleries producing ethanol plus DDGS and CO2; India's fastest-growing segment (grain ~67% of ESY 2025-26 supplies, maize the single largest feedstock).1.4–2.2INR crore per KLPDApprox USD 155k-245k per KLPD (estimate). US greenfield corn dry mills ~USD 1.5-2.5 per gallon of annual capacity, i.e. ~USD 130k-220k per KLPD at 330 days (estimate). ESY 2025-26 ex-mill: maize INR 71.86/L, FCI rice INR 60.32/L, damaged grain INR 64.00/L (ChiniMandi, above).
2G cellulosic ethanol (rice straw, bamboo, bagasse)Pretreatment + enzymatic hydrolysis + C5/C6 fermentation; Indian PSU projects under PM JI-VAN: IOCL Panipat (100 KLPD, 2022), BPCL Bargarh (1G 3.3 crore L/yr + 2G 3 crore L/yr, commissioned Mar 2026 after long delays), HPCL Bathinda (100 KLPD, under development), NRL/AM Green Numaligarh bamboo biorefinery (~49 kt ethanol/yr, Sep 2025).8–18INR crore per KLPDBargarh approved capex INR 1,775 crore incl. taxes for integrated 1G+2G (https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/odisha-bio-refinery-faces-production-delays-due-to-technological-challenges-126031601120_1.html); Panipat 2G ~INR 900 crore for 100 KLPD (estimate). FOAK commissioning risk is the dominant risk.
SAF / renewable diesel via HEFA (hydroprocessed esters & fatty acids)Hydrotreating + isomerisation of UCO, tallow, vegetable oils (Honeywell UOP Ecofining, Topsoe HydroFlex, Axens Vegan, Neste NEXBTL). 'Max-SAF' mode shifts 50-70% of yield to jet.1,200–2,500USD per tpaGreenfield range estimate; refinery conversions/co-processing much lower (~USD 300-900 per tpa, estimate). HEFA SAF averaged USD 1,817/t in BNEF's 2026 survey (https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/global-saf-prices-surge-by-10).
SAF via alcohol-to-jet (ATJ)Ethanol (or isobutanol) dehydration, oligomerisation and hydrotreating to synthetic paraffinic kerosene (LanzaJet, Gevo, Honeywell UOP ATJ). LanzaJet Freedom Pines (10 MGY) produced first fuel in Nov 2025; IOCL has proposed an ATJ plant at Panipat.3,000–8,000USD per tpaFOAK-to-NOAK range (estimate). Requires ~1.7 t ethanol per t of jet (estimate) - a natural outlet for India's surplus distillery capacity. LanzaJet: https://www.greenairnews.com/?p=8219
SAF via gasification + Fischer-Tropsch / e-SAF (PtL)Biomass/MSW gasification + FT synthesis, or green H2 + CO2 (e-SAF) for ReFuelEU synthetic sub-mandate and UK PtL obligation.5,000–12,000USD per tpaEstimate. BNEF 2026: advanced bio-SAF offers ~USD 3,399/t (2028-31 delivery), e-SAF ~USD 5,015/t (2026-28), ~7x fossil jet (https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/global-saf-prices-surge-by-10).
Renewable diesel / HVOSame hydroprocessing route as HEFA tuned for diesel; US capacity concentrated in Gulf Coast and California (Diamond Green Diesel, Phillips 66 Rodeo, Marathon/Neste Martinez, Montana Renewables).1,000–2,200USD per tpaEstimate; brownfield refinery conversions at low end. US RD output implied at 4.32 bn gal in 2026 at 90% utilisation to meet final RVOs (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/06/rewriting-the-rfs-playbook-the-impact-of-final-rvos-on-projected-biomass-based-diesel-feedstock-use-for-2026-2027.html).
Compressed biogas (CBG) / RNGAnaerobic digestion of paddy straw, press mud, cattle dung, MSW; upgrading (PSA/membrane/water scrubbing) to >90% CH4 and compression into CGD networks under SATAT/GOBARdhan; fermented organic manure co-product.4–8INR crore per TPDCapex range estimate (straw-based plants at upper end). GOBARdhan capital assistance INR 1.25 crore/TPD capped at INR 30 crore per project (https://psuwatch.com/newsupdates/petroleum-ministry-issues-guidelines-for-rs-23731-cr-gobardhan-scheme-for-cbg).
FAME biodieselTransesterification of vegetable oils, UCO and animal fats; mature, low-capex, cold-flow limited; India's B5 ambition largely unmet, US FAME ~1.8 bn gal/yr.200–500USD per tpaEstimate. US FAME output implied at 1.78 bn gal in 2026 (farmdoc daily, above).

Value chain

Inputs

  • sugarcane juice/syrup
  • B-heavy and C-heavy molasses
  • maize/corn
  • FCI surplus rice and damaged food grains
  • rice straw, bagasse, bamboo, corn stover
  • used cooking oil (UCO), tallow, distillers corn oil
  • soybean, canola/rapeseed, palm oil
  • cattle dung, press mud, MSW organics
  • enzymes and yeast
  • hydrogen (HEFA/RD/ATJ)
  • process steam and power
  • water

Process

  • milling/liquefaction
  • saccharification and fermentation
  • distillation and molecular-sieve dehydration
  • MEE/ZLD effluent treatment and DDGS drying
  • biomass pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis (2G)
  • feed pretreatment and hydrodeoxygenation (HEFA/RD)
  • isomerisation/hydrocracking (max-SAF)
  • ethanol dehydration-oligomerisation-hydrotreating (ATJ)
  • gasification + Fischer-Tropsch (FT/e-SAF)
  • anaerobic digestion, biogas upgrading and compression (CBG)
  • transesterification (FAME)

Outputs

  • fuel-grade anhydrous ethanol (E20-E30, E15)
  • DDGS/DWGS and corn oil
  • biogenic CO2
  • sustainable aviation fuel (SPK)
  • renewable diesel/HVO and bio-naphtha/bio-LPG
  • FAME biodiesel and glycerine
  • CBG/RNG
  • fermented organic manure
  • RINs, LCFS credits, 45Z credits, ISCC/CORSIA certificates

Parameters

21 parameters: 10 sourced, 11 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensity(1G grain distillery reference)1.8 INR crore per KLPDrange 1–2.5estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Construction months20 monthsrange 12–48estimateas of 5 Oct 20261G distillery 12-20; CBG 12-18; HEFA/ATJ/2G 30-48 months
Cost overrun mean15%range 5%–60%estimateas of 5 Oct 20261G low; 2G/ATJ/FT FOAK at upper end
Schedule overrun mean25%range 5%–150%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026business-standard.com
Asset life (years)25 yearsrange 20–30estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
WACC11%range 6%–14%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026pages.stern.nyu.edu
Typical IRR14%range 6%–22%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026project equity IRR; India distilleries/CBG 12-18%, US/EU HEFA/ethanol 8-15%
Utilization60%range 25%–95%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Opex % of revenue82%range 70%–95%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026feedstock 60-80% of revenue
EBITDA margin12%range 3%–25%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026pages.stern.nyu.edu
India blend rate esy2024 2519.2%range 19%–20%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026pib.gov.in
India ethanol capacity(vs ~11 bn L needed for E20)20 billion litres/yr installedrange 19–24sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026timesofindia.indiatimes.com
India esy2025 26 contracted(plus 1.49 bn L additional allowed by SC, Aug 2026)10.48 billion litresrange 10.48–11.97sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026chinimandi.com
Ethanol yield maize400 L per tonne grainrange 370–420estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Ethanol yield rice450 L per tonne grainrange 430–480estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Ethanol yield B heavy320 L per tonne molassesrange 290–340estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
HEFA feed per gal8.25 lb feedstock per gal RDrange 7.55–8.5sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
ATJ ethanol per t SAF1.7 t ethanol per t SAFrange 1.6–1.9estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
CBG capital assistance(cap INR 30 crore/project)1.25 INR crore per TPDrange 0.6–2sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026psuwatch.com
CBG admin price2,110 INR/MMBturange 1,478–2,110sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026pib.gov.in
FX INR (USD)(used for conversions)90 INR per USDrange 85–96estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
FOAK technology & commissioning failure (2G ethanol, ATJ, FT/e-SAF)Technical Shared factors: Labour 0.3 · Policy 0.2 · Electrical equipment 0.2 · Steel 0.2 · Interest rates 0.1Watch: pretreatment/enzyme yield in pilot runs; vendor availability for specialised packages; Bargarh/Panipat/Bathinda operating rates; licensor performance guarantees
40%
30%
18 mo
US policy volatility (RVOs, SRE waivers, 45Z final rules & GREET updates, E15)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.85 · Oil 0.15Watch: SRE decisions and reallocation; 45Z final regulations (expected Nov 2026) and USDA feedstock rule; AFPM litigation on Set 2; D4/D6 RIN prices
45%
12%
6 mo
CBG feedstock aggregation, offtake and pipeline-connectivity riskInterface Shared factors: Policy 0.4 · Gas 0.3 · Labour 0.2 · Grid queue 0.1Watch: paddy straw bale prices and storage-fire incidents; CGD offtake agreements signed within 3 months (GOBARdhan); DPI pipeline sanctions; plants commissioned vs registered (217 of 1,908)
45%
12%
6 mo
Offtake allocation / administered-price risk (surplus distillery capacity, LTOA vs non-LTOA, E20 plateau)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.8 · Oil 0.2Watch: OMC EOI allocations by feedstock and quarter; installed capacity (~20 bn L) vs E20 need (~11 bn L); distillery utilisation (25-30% early 2026); Supreme Court/ministry rulings on LTOA
50%
10%
6 mo
HEFA/RD margin squeeze and waste-lipid feedstock competitionMarket Shared factors: Policy 0.45 · Oil 0.4 · Gas 0.15Watch: UCO/tallow prices (UCO EUR 1,198/t Jul 2026); soybean oil ZL=F vs ULSD; LCFS credit price; RD plant idlings/outages
45%
10%
3 mo
Feedstock price/availability shock (maize, FCI rice repricing, sugar-diversion curbs)Commodity Shared factors: Policy 0.6 · Oil 0.2 · Labour 0.1Watch: FCI OMSS-D rice price & allocation (INR 2,390/qtl Nov 2026; 7.2 Mt); maize mandi prices vs MSP; monsoon deficit; domestic sugar prices and diversion caps for 2026-27 season; PMAIZMTUSDM, ZC=F, SB=F
45%
8%
2 mo
Long-lead equipment and materials escalation (SS fermenters, columns, hydrotreater reactors, compressors)Supply chain Shared factors: Steel 0.5 · Electrical equipment 0.25 · Labour 0.15 · Copper 0.1Watch: stainless steel and plate prices; heavy-wall reactor forging slots; PCU332420332420 / PCU332410332410 PPIs; compressor/upgrading package lead times
35%
8%
4 mo
Financing cost and working capital stress (MSME CBG, sugar-mill distilleries)Financing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.75 · Policy 0.25Watch: RBI/Fed policy rate moves; interest-subvention scheme status; GOBARdhan credit guarantee operationalisation; OMC payment cycles
35%
6%
4 mo
Oil price normalisation after Hormuz peace deal eroding blending economicsMarket Shared factors: Oil 0.8 · Policy 0.2Watch: US-Iran deal headlines; Brent forward curve; OMC under-recovery/over-recovery on petrol; SAF premium vs jet
35%
6%
0 mo
Utility and hydrogen input costs (steam, power, natural gas for H2)Commodity Shared factors: Gas 0.5 · Power price 0.4 · Grid queue 0.1Watch: Henry Hub / TTF / Asia LNG; industrial power tariffs; coal/biomass boiler fuel prices; Qatar LNG force majeure
35%
5%
0 mo
Vehicle compatibility & consumer backlash on higher blends (E20 -> E27/E30)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.9 · Oil 0.1Watch: SIAM/OEM statements on E20 materials; BIS IS 19850:2026 rollout and excise incentives for higher blends; FFV launches; consumer complaints/litigation
30%
5%
6 mo
Food-vs-fuel, water and land-use ESG pressureESG Shared factors: Policy 0.85 · Labour 0.15Watch: parliament questions on FCI rice subsidy; poultry/feed industry lobbying on maize; EU crop-cap and Annex IX debates; ILUC treatment in 45Z/CORSIA
30%
4%
3 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
India OMC ethanol procurement price (weighted avg ex-mill)ESY 2025-26 weighted avg ex-mill INR 66.61/L; OMC landed cost ~INR 71.1-71.2/L incl. 5% GST and freight. Feedstock-specific: C-heavy 57.97, FCI rice 60.32, B-heavy 60.73, damaged grain 64.00, cane juice 65.61, maize 71.86. INR 1/L ~ 1.5-2% of distillery revenue (https://www.chinimandi.com/government-discloses-ethanol-procurement-cost-of-over-rs-71-per-litre-for-omcs-in-fy26/).57–72INR/LRevenue
FCI rice price to distilleries (OMSS-D)INR 2,250 (Jun-Oct 2025), 2,320 (Nov 2025-Oct 2026), 2,390 (Nov 2026-Jun 2027) vs FCI economic cost ~INR 3,890-4,100; 7.2 Mt allocated for ESY 2026-27 vs 5.5 Mt. Rice ~60-65% of grain-ethanol cash cost; a move to economic cost would wipe out margins (https://www.chinimandi.com/fci-sold-rice-to-ethanol-makers-at-40-below-procurement-cost-parliament-told/).2,250–2,390INR/quintalOpex
Maize/corn price (world benchmark; India spot INR 1,400-2,800/qtl)World maize ~USD 213/t (Jul 2026, FRED PMAIZMTUSDM). India: maize area 10.74 -> 14.41 Mha (2022-23 to 2025-26); MP spot fell to INR 1,400-1,500/qtl vs MSP INR 2,410 in mid-2026 (https://www.groundreport.in/groundreport/why-are-madhya-pradeshs-maize-farmers-troubled-by-ethanols-green-dream/), but weak monsoon is re-tightening supply. ~2.5 t maize per KL ethanol; INR 100/qtl = ~INR 2.6/L cost.170–300USD/mtOpex
CBOT corn futures (US dry-mill feedstock)~2.9 gal ethanol per bushel; 10c/bu ~ 3.5c/gal ethanol cost before DDGS/corn-oil credits. ZC=F ~498c/bu (Oct 2026).380–650USc/buOpex
Raw sugar #11 (cane diversion opportunity cost)Indian mills diverted ~3 Mt sugar (~10% of output) to ethanol in 2025-26; record domestic sugar prices led government to consider curbing cane-based ethanol for 2026-27 (https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/india-considers-curbing-use-of-sugarcane-for-ethanol-to-tame-record-high-sugar-market/articleshow/133097955.cms).14–25USc/lbOpex, Revenue
Brent crudeSets the displaced-fuel value and the political appetite for blending. Brent USD 113.96 (29 Sep 2026); Indian basket peaked ~USD 135 and OMCs under-recovered ~INR 11/L on petrol in Mar-Jun 2026 - administered ethanol became cheaper than petrol on a landed basis.60–135USD/bblRevenue, Policy
US ethanol producer price indexBLS WPU06140341 = 259.95 (Aug 2026), tracking gasoline. Combine with corn to monitor crush spread.150–300indexRevenue
US ethanol crush margin (ethanol + DDGS + corn oil - corn - natural gas)Estimate. Primary driver of dry-mill EBITDA (REX, GPRE, ALTO); supported in 2026 by high gasoline, record exports and 45Z CI-based credits.−0.1–0.8USD/galMargin
Show 7 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
Soybean oil futures (HEFA/RD/FAME feedstock)~8.25 lb feedstock per gal RD, so 10c/lb = ~USD 0.83/gal cost. 45Z domestic-feedstock rule and RFS import treatment pushed US biofuel soybean-oil demand to record highs (Jul 2026). ZL=F ~68.6c/lb.40–80USc/lbOpex
Used cooking oil (ISCC, NWE)UCO NWE EUR 1,090/t (Jan 2026) -> 1,025 (Mar) -> 1,198 (10 Jul 2026), highest since Feb 2025; drives EU HEFA cost of production (https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/european-saf-market-reshaped-production-costs-h1-2026/).900–1,300EUR/tOpex
D4/D6 RIN pricesRange estimate. Record 2026-27 RVOs (BBD 8.86/8.95 bn RINs) and 70% SRE reallocation tightened D4 balance; RD earns ~1.6-1.7 RINs/gal, so USD 0.10/RIN = ~USD 0.17/gal RD revenue.0.4–2USD/RINRevenue
California LCFS credit priceRange estimate. Benchmark stepped to 22.75% CI reduction from 1 Jul 2025; H2 2025 deficits +67.7% y/y yet prices stayed soft (https://stillwaterassociates.com/a-puzzle-in-the-4q2025-lcfs-data-tightening-market-soft-prices/).40–120USD/t CO2eRevenue
SAF price (HEFA, NWE spot)Spot SAF spiked to ~USD 3,500/t (week to 20 Mar 2026) on the Hormuz shock, eased to USD 2,500-2,700/t by Jul; NL HEFA-SAF cost of production USD 2,181/t (10 Jul 2026) (Fastmarkets, above). BNEF: SAF ~5x the price of fossil jet.1,800–3,500USD/tRevenue
US Gulf Coast jet fuelSAF is priced as fossil jet + premium; jet USGC USD 4.40/gal (29 Sep 2026) narrows the green premium and helps mandate compliance cost.1.8–4.8USD/galRevenue
India administered CBG price (GOBARdhan ACP)GOBARdhan ACP INR 2,110/MMBtu (~INR 98-105/kg) fixed to 2036, reset annually by PAB; previous GAIL CBG-CGD reference INR 1,478/MMBtu at 85% of CNG RSP (https://renewablewatch.in/2025/12/19/gaining-maturity-improvement-in-cbg-offtake-and-economics/).1,478–2,110INR/MMBtuRevenue

Price feeds (24)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
PPI: Ethanol (fuel and industrial)WPU06140341FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Ethyl alcohol manufacturingPCU325193325193FREDindexmonthly
Maize (World Bank)PMAIZMTUSDMFREDUSD/mtmonthly
Sugar, ISA (World Bank)PSUGAISAUSDMFREDUSc/lbmonthly
Soybeans (World Bank)PSOYBUSDMFREDUSD/mtmonthly
Soybean oil (World Bank)PSOILUSDMFREDUSD/mtmonthly
Palm oil (World Bank)PPOILUSDMFREDUSD/mtmonthly
Rapeseed oil (World Bank)PROILUSDMFREDUSD/mtmonthly
Show 16 more feeds
SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Rice, Thai 5% (World Bank)PRICENPQUSDMFREDUSD/mtmonthly
Kerosene-type jet fuel, US Gulf CoastDJFUELUSGULFFREDUSD/galdaily
ULSD No.2 diesel, US Gulf CoastDDFUELUSGULFFREDUSD/galdaily
Conventional gasoline, US Gulf CoastDGASUSGULFFREDUSD/galdaily
Brent crudeDCOILBRENTEUFREDUSD/bbldaily
Henry Hub natural gasDHHNGSPFREDUSD/MMBtudaily
EU natural gas TTF (World Bank)PNGASEUUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
PPI: Metal tanks, heavy gauge (fermenters/storage)PCU332420332420FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Power boiler & heat exchanger mfgPCU332410332410FREDindexmonthly
CBOT corn futures (front)ZC=FYahooUSc/budaily
ICE raw sugar #11 futures (front)SB=FYahooUSc/lbdaily
CBOT soybean oil futures (front)ZL=FYahooUSc/lbdaily
India OMC administered ethanol price by feedstock (ESY)MoPNG/OMC ESY ethanol price notifications (PPAC/ChiniMandi)otherINR/Lannual
India GOBARdhan administered CBG priceMoPNG GOBARdhan Project Approval Board ACPotherINR/MMBtuannual
US RIN prices D4/D5/D6EPA EMTS RIN trade data (https://www.epa.gov/fuels-registration-reporting-and-compliance-help/rin-trades-and-price-information)otherUSD/RINmonthly
California LCFS credit priceCARB LCFS Monthly Credit Transfer Activity ReportotherUSD/t CO2emonthly

Listed tickers (39)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 23

  • BALRAMCHIN.NS Balrampur Chini Mills NSE · IN
  • TRIVENI.NS Triveni Engineering & Industries NSE · IN
  • EIDPARRY.NS E.I.D.-Parry (India) NSE · IN
  • RENUKA.NS Shree Renuka Sugars NSE · IN
  • DHAMPURSUG.NS Dhampur Sugar Mills NSE · IN
  • DALMIASUG.NS Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries NSE · IN
  • GODAVARIB.NS Godavari Biorefineries NSE · IN
  • RELIANCE.NS Reliance Industries (CBG roll-out) NSE · IN
  • REX REX American Resources NYSE · US
  • GPRE Green Plains NASDAQ · US
  • ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland NYSE · US
  • ALTO Alto Ingredients NASDAQ · US
  • GEVO Gevo NASDAQ · US
  • DAR Darling Ingredients (Diamond Green Diesel JV) NYSE · US
  • VLO Valero Energy (Diamond Green Diesel JV, ethanol) NYSE · US
  • PSX Phillips 66 (Rodeo Renewed) NYSE · US
  • MPC Marathon Petroleum (Martinez RD JV) NYSE · US
  • OPAL OPAL Fuels (RNG) NASDAQ · US
  • CLNE Clean Energy Fuels (RNG) NASDAQ · US
  • NESTE.HE Neste Nasdaq Helsinki · EU
  • VBK.DE Verbio XETRA · EU
  • TTE TotalEnergies NYSE · EU
  • ENI.MI Eni (Enilive) Borsa Italiana · EU

Suppliers · 7

  • PRAJIND.NS Praj Industries NSE · IN
  • THERMAX.NS Thermax NSE · IN
  • ISGEC.NS Isgec Heavy Engineering NSE · IN
  • HON Honeywell (UOP Ecofining / ATJ licensor) NASDAQ · US
  • LNZA LanzaTech Global NASDAQ · US
  • NSIS-B.CO Novonesis (Novozymes) Nasdaq Copenhagen · EU
  • WRT1V.HE Wärtsilä Nasdaq Helsinki · EU

Consumers · 6

  • IOC.NS Indian Oil Corporation NSE · IN
  • BPCL.NS Bharat Petroleum Corporation NSE · IN
  • HINDPETRO.NS Hindustan Petroleum Corporation NSE · IN
  • GAIL.NS GAIL (India) NSE · IN
  • IGL.NS Indraprastha Gas NSE · IN
  • ATGL.NS Adani Total Gas NSE · IN

Proxys · 3

  • ZC=F CBOT corn futures CBOT · US
  • SB=F ICE raw sugar #11 futures ICE · US
  • ZL=F CBOT soybean oil futures CBOT · US

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • Ethanol yield (L/t grain or molasses) and fermentation efficiency (%)
  • Plant utilisation vs nameplate KLPD / tpa / TPD
  • Feedstock cost per litre and share of revenue
  • Crush spread / HEFA margin (USD/gal)
  • Carbon intensity (gCO2e/MJ) and 45Z/LCFS credit per gallon
  • Steam and power consumption per litre
  • SAF yield share in max-SAF mode (%)
  • CBG output (kg/day) per tonne feedstock and methane purity (%)
  • Offtake contracted vs supplied (%)
  • Working-capital days (OMC/CGD receivables)
  • Lost-time injury rate during construction
  • Months from mechanical completion to nameplate

Regional notes

IndiaPolicy-driven market: administered ethanol prices by feedstock (ESY 2025-26 weighted avg INR 66.61/L), OMC tenders and LTOAs, interest-subvention-financed distillery boom that left ~20 bn L capacity vs ~11 bn L E20 demand. E20 reached (19.24% avg in ESY 2024-25); BIS standards for E22-E30 were notified May 2026, but E27/E30 timing depends on vehicle compatibility and the feedstock-food balance (record sugar prices, possible cane-ethanol curbs, FCI rice at ~40% below cost, maize swings). The Hormuz shock (Indian basket ~USD 135/bbl peak) strengthened the energy-security case. 2G is still FOAK (Panipat, Bargarh commissioned Mar 2026, Bathinda, Numaligarh bamboo). SAF: 1%/2%/5% on international flights in 2027/2028/2030 (IOCL Panipat co-processing and ATJ). CBG: CBO 1% FY26 (1.05% achieved), rising to 5% from FY29; GOBARdhan INR 23,731 crore with ACP INR 2,110/MMBtu; 217 plants commissioned of 1,908 registered (Aug 2026).
United StatesRFS Set 2 final rule (27 Mar 2026): 25.82/25.98 bn RINs for 2026/27, BBD 8.86/8.95 bn RINs, 70% SRE reallocation; the White House is pushing more SREs to ease pump prices and AFPM is suing. 45Z (OBBBA): extended to end-2029, North American feedstock only from 2026, ILUC excluded, SAF bonus removed; IRS guidance and GREET update in Sep 2026, final rules expected Nov 2026. LCFS benchmark is 22.75% CI reduction from Jul 2025. RD margins were squeezed through 2025 (utilisation ~60%) and plants idled in early 2026, then recovered as mandates and high diesel prices lifted profits. Year-round E15 passed the House (May 2026) and is pending in the Senate. LanzaJet Freedom Pines (ATJ, 10 MGY) started in Nov 2025.
EuropeRED III (Directive 2023/2413): 29% RES-T or 14.5% GHG-intensity cut by 2030, plus a 5.5% combined advanced biofuel + RFNBO sub-target (>=1% RFNBO); national transposition is uneven (Germany: GHG quota to 59% by 2040, e-fuel quota 0.1% in 2026 to 8% in 2040). ReFuelEU Aviation: 2% SAF in 2025, 6% in 2030, 20% in 2035, 70% in 2050, with a synthetic sub-mandate of 1.2% (2030-31) to 5% (2035); EU signalling flexibility on penalties as e-SAF FIDs lag. UK SAF mandate: 2% (2025), 10% (2030), 22% (2040) with a HEFA cap and a PtL obligation from 2028; the Revenue Certainty Mechanism's first round supports 230 kt/yr. HEFA cost of production hit a record (~USD 2,181/t) as UCO tightened.
Middle EastThe Hormuz disruption (Brent +65% in Mar 2026; ~USD 114/bbl in late Sep 2026) raised fossil jet and diesel prices, narrowing biofuel green premiums and pushing importers (India, EU) to treat biofuels as a security-of-supply asset. Gulf NOCs (ADNOC/Masdar, Aramco) are pursuing SAF/e-fuel projects, but regional exports and shipping/insurance remain disrupted.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 19

  • Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) New Delhi · INLargest ethanol offtaker; Panipat 2G ethanol (100 KLPD); Panipat ISCC-CORSIA SAF certification (Aug 2025) with UCO co-processing (~35 kt/yr target) and a proposed ATJ SAF plant.
  • Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) Mumbai · INBargarh (Odisha) integrated 1G+2G rice-straw biorefinery, INR 1,775 crore, 100 KLPD 2G, commissioned Mar 2026 after multi-year delay; CBG plants.
  • Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) Mumbai · INBathinda 2G ethanol (100 KLPD) under development; ethanol offtake; CBG.
  • Assam Bio Ethanol (NRL / Fortum / Chempolis; AM Green technology licence) Numaligarh, Assam · INBamboo biorefinery: 300 kt bamboo -> ~49 kt ethanol, 19 kt furfural, 11 kt acetic acid; inaugurated Sep 2025.
  • Balrampur Chini Mills Kolkata · INMajor UP sugar-ethanol producer with multi-feed distilleries; building PLA bioplastics plant.
  • Triveni Engineering & Industries Noida · INSugar + grain/cane distilleries (>1,000 KLPD), also gears/water businesses.
  • Shree Renuka Sugars (Wilmar) Mumbai · INLarge molasses/cane-juice ethanol capacity in Karnataka/Maharashtra.
  • E.I.D.-Parry / Dhampur / Dalmia Bharat Sugar / Godavari Biorefineries Chennai / Delhi / Delhi / Mumbai · INSugar-ethanol integrated mills; Godavari also produces bio-based chemicals and SAF-pathway ethanol.
  • Reliance Industries (Reliance Bio-Energy) Mumbai · INRolling out large fleet of CBG plants on agri-residue/press mud; anchor private player under SATAT/GOBARdhan.
  • Verbio India / EverEnviro / GPS Renewables / Adani Total Gas various · INPaddy-straw and MSW CBG developers (Verbio Lehragaga ~33 TPD); GPS Renewables also SAF ambitions.
  • POET Sioux Falls, SD · USLargest US ethanol producer (~3 bn gal/yr, 30+ plants), private.
  • ADM / Valero / Green Plains / REX / Alto Chicago / San Antonio / Omaha / Dayton / Pekin · USListed corn-ethanol majors; Green Plains and others pursuing CCS-enabled low-CI ethanol for 45Z.
  • Diamond Green Diesel (Valero + Darling) Norco, LA / Port Arthur, TX · US~1.2 bn gal/yr RD and ~235 MGY SAF capability at Port Arthur - largest US HEFA producer.
  • Phillips 66 Rodeo / Marathon-Neste Martinez / Montana Renewables (Calumet) California / Montana · USRefinery-to-RD conversions; RD sector idled capacity in early 2026 awaiting final RVOs (EIA).
  • LanzaJet Soperton, GA / Chicago · USFreedom Pines ATJ: 10 MGY, first fuel Nov 2025; USD 47m equity close Feb 2026; licensing ATJ globally.
  • Neste Espoo · EUWorld's largest HEFA/SAF producer (Porvoo, Rotterdam, Singapore ~1 Mt SAF capability); Rotterdam expansion under way.
  • Verbio Leipzig · EUEthanol, biodiesel and biomethane (straw-to-RNG) in DE, US (Nevada, Iowa) and India.
  • TotalEnergies / Eni (Enilive) / Shell / St1 / CropEnergies (Südzucker) Paris / Rome / London / Helsinki / Mannheim · EULa Mède & Grandpuits (TTE), Venice & Gela biorefineries (Eni), Shell Rotterdam HEFA paused 2024; CropEnergies ethanol now wholly owned by Südzucker.
  • Raízen São Paulo · LATAMCane ethanol and E2G cellulosic ethanol plants in Brazil; financial stress highlights 2G scale-up risk.

Suppliers · 14

  • Praj Industries Licensor · INDominant distillery technology/EPC for India 1G (grain, cane), 2G (enfinity - Panipat), CBG (RenGas) and SAF/ATJ partnerships.
  • Novonesis (Novozymes + Chr. Hansen) Catalyst · EUEnzymes and yeast for 1G/2G ethanol and biogas.
  • Honeywell UOP Licensor · USEcofining (HEFA/RD), eFining, UOP ATJ; hydroprocessing catalysts.
  • Topsoe Licensor · EUHydroFlex hydroprocessing technology and catalysts for RD/SAF; private (not listed).
  • Axens (IFPEN) Licensor · EUVegan HEFA, Futurol 2G ethanol, Jetanol ATJ, BioTfueL FT; unlisted.
  • LanzaJet / LanzaTech Licensor · USATJ process licensing; LanzaTech gas fermentation of industrial off-gases to ethanol (IOCL Panipat).
  • Thermax OEM · INBio-boilers/cogeneration, ZLD/water treatment, CBG and 2G biofuel EPC.
  • Isgec Heavy Engineering EPC · INDistillery and sugar-plant EPC, boilers, pressure vessels.
  • Spray Engineering Devices (SED) OEM · INEvaporators, distillery and sugar-plant equipment; private.
  • ICM Inc. / Fagen Inc. / Whitefox EPC · USUS dry-mill ethanol design-build and membrane dehydration retrofits.
  • Wärtsilä OEM · EUGas engines for biogas CHP and biofuel-capable marine engines.
  • Alfa Laval / Sulzer OEM · EUSeparators, heat exchangers, distillation internals and columns.
  • EnviTec Biogas / Carbotech / Pentair Haffmans OEM · EUDigesters, biogas upgrading (PSA/membrane) and CO2 recovery packages.
  • Engineers India Ltd (EIL) / Toyo / Technip Energies EPC · INPMC/EPC for PSU biorefineries and SAF units; EIL runs GOBARdhan registration portal.

Customers · 7

  • Indian OMCs (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL) fuel blending (E20 -> E22-E30)Contracted 1,048 crore L for ESY 2025-26 plus 149 crore L additional; spent ~INR 1.72 lakh crore on ethanol cumulatively.
  • City gas distribution (IGL, MGL, Adani Total Gas, GAIL Gas) CBG offtake under CBOCBO 1% FY26 (1.05% achieved), 3% FY27, 4% FY28, 5% from FY29 in CNG(T)/PNG(D).
  • Airlines and jet fuel suppliers (Air India, IndiGo; EU/UK carriers) SAFIndia 1% SAF on international flights from 2027, 2% 2028, 5% 2030; ReFuelEU 2%->6% 2030; UK 2%->10% 2030.
  • US obligated parties (refiners/importers) RFS compliance (RINs)2026 total RVO 25.82 bn RINs; AFPM suing EPA over Set 2.
  • Heavy-duty trucking & fleets (California, EU) renewable diesel/HVO, RNGLCFS and EU GHG quotas drive drop-in demand.
  • Shipping lines marine biofuels (FAME/HVO blends, bio-LNG)FuelEU Maritime and RED III transport targets.
  • Livestock/poultry feed and fertilizer marketers co-products (DDGS, fermented organic manure)DDGS supply surge from maize ethanol; MDA INR 1,500/t for FOM.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
A100Feedstock tie-ups and offtake (OMC LTOA / CGD offtake / airline or obligated-party SAF/RD contracts)Develop · factors: Policy, Oil, Labour12%0.8 / 1 / 1.6
A110Land, environmental clearance (EC/CTE), PESO/excise licences, EPA pathway or ISCC registrationDevelop · factors: Policy, Labour15%0.8 / 1 / 1.8
A120Technology selection and licensing (Praj, Honeywell UOP Ecofining/ATJ, Axens, Topsoe, LanzaJet, digester/upgrading vendor)Develop · OEM · factors: Interest rates, Policy, Labour8%0.85 / 1 / 1.4
A200FEED / basic engineering package, process guarantees, heat & mass balance, cost estimate +/-10%Engineer · EPC · factors: Labour, Policy, Interest rates12%0.85 / 1 / 1.35
A210Financial close (project finance, interest subvention/GOBARdhan assistance, tax-credit monetisation)Develop · factors: Interest rates, Policy8%0.8 / 1 / 1.6
A220Detailed engineering (process, piping, civil/structural, E&I)Engineer · EPC · factors: Labour, Electrical equipment, Steel18%0.85 / 1 / 1.3
A300Long-lead procurement: SS fermenters, distillation/MSDH columns, molecular sieves, hydrotreater reactors, H2 compressors, digesters, PSA/membrane upgradingProcure · OEM · factors: Steel, Electrical equipment, Labour, Copper30%0.85 / 1 / 1.5
A310Package units and bulks: boiler/cogeneration, MEE/ZLD, DDGS dryer, CO2 recovery, tank farm, cooling towersProcure · OEM · factors: Steel, Electrical equipment, Construction materials, Copper22%0.85 / 1 / 1.4
A400Site enabling, civil works and foundations, feedstock yard and storageConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Labour, Steel20%0.85 / 1 / 1.45
A410Mechanical erection, piping and module installationConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel, Construction materials25%0.85 / 1 / 1.5
A420Electrical, instrumentation/DCS and utility tie-ins (grid connection, gas/H2 supply, CGD/pipeline injection point)Construct · EPC · factors: Electrical equipment, Copper, Labour, Grid queue15%0.85 / 1 / 1.5
A500Pre-commissioning (hydrotests, flushing, loop checks, catalyst loading, yeast/enzyme propagation, digester seeding)Commission · EPC · factors: Labour, Electrical equipment, Gas7%0.85 / 1 / 1.4
A510Commissioning, first product and performance-guarantee test runsCommission · EPC · factors: Labour, Policy, Gas, Power price6%0.85 / 1 / 1.8
A520Ramp-up to nameplate and certification (BIS/OMC quality approval, ISCC-CORSIA, ASTM D7566 annex, LCFS CI pathway, 45Z registration)Commission · factors: Policy, Labour, Oil, Gas12%0.8 / 1 / 2

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Core process equipment (fermenters, distillation/dehydration, hydrotreater reactors, digesters, upgrading)30%
    Equipment
    • Steel 60%
    • Labour 25%
    • Electrical equipment 15%
  • Utilities and package units (boiler/cogen, MEE/ZLD, H2 unit, cooling, CO2 recovery)14%
    Equipment
    • Steel 50%
    • Electrical equipment 30%
    • Labour 20%
  • Civil, structural and buildings12%
    Construction
    • Construction materials 55%
    • Steel 25%
    • Labour 20%
  • Mechanical erection and piping12%
    Construction
    • Labour 60%
    • Steel 40%
  • Electrical, instrumentation and control8%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 50%
    • Copper 30%
    • Labour 20%
  • Licensing, FEED and detailed engineering8%
    Engineering
    • Labour 100%
  • Owner's costs, land, permitting, financing during construction, contingency7%
    Develop
    • Interest rates 60%
    • Policy 40%
  • Feedstock handling, storage and tank farm6%
    Construction
    • Steel 50%
    • Labour 30%
    • Construction materials 20%
  • Commissioning, catalysts/enzymes first fill, spares3%
    Commissioning
    • Labour 50%
    • Power price 30%
    • Gas 20%

Financial template

Revenue model

Fuel sales at administered (India OMC ethanol, GOBARdhan CBG) or market-linked prices (US ethanol, RD, SAF) plus environmental attributes (RINs, LCFS credits, 45Z tax credit, EU GHG-quota/ReFuelEU tickets, CORSIA units) and co-products (DDGS, corn oil, CO2, fermented organic manure, bio-naphtha). Margin = fuel + credits + co-products - feedstock - utilities - opex.

Margin driver

US ethanol crush margin (ethanol + DDGS + corn oil - corn - natural gas)

Ramp-up

1 year to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a biofuels decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 21 parameters, 12 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are policy, labour, oil and steel. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 24 price feeds and 39 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Policy
  • Labour
  • Oil
  • Steel
  • Electrical equipment
  • Interest rates
  • Gas
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Steel35.8%
  • Labour32.8%
  • Electrical equipment12.7%
  • Construction materials7.8%
  • Interest rates4.2%
  • Policy2.8%
  • Copper2.4%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. chinimandi.comhttps://www.chinimandi.com/government-discloses-ethanol-procurement-cost-of-over-rs-71-per-litre-for-omcs-in-fy26/
  2. bioenergytimes.comhttps://bioenergytimes.com/indias-ethanol-procurement-cost-tops-rs-71-litre-for-omcs-in-fy26-government-says
  3. chinimandi.comhttps://www.chinimandi.com/sc-permits-additional-ethanol-procurement-by-omcs-equal-treatment-for-non-ltoa-suppliers/
  4. m.economictimes.comhttps://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/grain-based-ethanol-accounts-for-nearly-67-of-supplies-maize-remains-the-largest-feedstock/articleshow/132255561.cms
  5. timesofindia.indiatimes.comhttps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/ethanol-boom-faces-reality-check-as-surplus-capacity-clouds-green-fuel-roadmap/articleshow/128672851.cms
  6. chinimandi.comhttps://www.chinimandi.com/fci-sold-rice-to-ethanol-makers-at-40-below-procurement-cost-parliament-told/
  7. rediff.comhttps://www.rediff.com/business/report/auto-govt-allots-2-million-more-tonnes-of-broken-rice-for-e20/20260713.htm
  8. frontline.thehindu.comhttps://frontline.thehindu.com/the-nation/agriculture/india-ethanol-policy-e20-costs/article71383485.ece
  9. groundreport.inhttps://www.groundreport.in/groundreport/why-are-madhya-pradeshs-maize-farmers-troubled-by-ethanols-green-dream/
  10. m.economictimes.comhttps://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/india-considers-curbing-use-of-sugarcane-for-ethanol-to-tame-record-high-sugar-market/articleshow/133097955.cms
  11. autocarindia.comhttps://www.autocarindia.com/industry/government-notifies-standards-for-petrol-blends-beyond-e20-439772
  12. pib.gov.inhttps://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2208694&lang=1&reg=3
  13. pib.gov.inhttps://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2295738
  14. psuwatch.comhttps://psuwatch.com/newsupdates/petroleum-ministry-issues-guidelines-for-rs-23731-cr-gobardhan-scheme-for-cbg
  15. renewablewatch.inhttps://renewablewatch.in/2025/12/19/gaining-maturity-improvement-in-cbg-offtake-and-economics/
  16. swarajyamag.comhttps://swarajyamag.com/economy/india-surpasses-fy26-compressed-bio-gas-blending-target-achieves-105-per-cent-against-1-per-cent-requirement
  17. business-standard.comhttps://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/odisha-bio-refinery-faces-production-delays-due-to-technological-challenges-126031601120_1.html
  18. psuwatch.comhttps://psuwatch.com/newsupdates/bpcl-commissions-2g-bioethanol-refinery-in-bargarh
  19. chinimandi.comhttps://www.chinimandi.com/ethanol-boost-am-green-plans-to-set-up-more-biorefineries-says-cto-after-commissioning-of-assam-biorefinery/
  20. ogj.comhttps://www.ogj.com/refining-processing/refining/optimization/news/55310900/indian-oils-panipat-refinery-cleared-for-saf-commercial-production
  21. bioenergytimes.comhttps://bioenergytimes.com/india-steps-up-preparations-for-2027-saf-mandate-under-corsia
  22. timesofindia.indiatimes.comhttps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-planning-to-mandate-1-saf-blending-with-atf-from-jan-2027/articleshow/131293998.cms
  23. epa.govhttps://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard/final-renewable-fuel-standards-2026-and-2027
  24. irs.govhttps://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/clean-fuel-production-credit
  25. farmdocdaily.illinois.eduhttps://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/06/rewriting-the-rfs-playbook-the-impact-of-final-rvos-on-projected-biomass-based-diesel-feedstock-use-for-2026-2027.html
  26. eia.govhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67665
  27. stillwaterassociates.comhttps://stillwaterassociates.com/a-puzzle-in-the-4q2025-lcfs-data-tightening-market-soft-prices/
  28. reuters.comhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-oil-refiners-finally-profit-biofuels-due-mandates-high-fuel-prices-2026-05-15/
  29. usnews.comhttps://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2026-08-26/white-house-pushes-for-more-refinery-waivers-to-ease-pump-prices
  30. fischbach.house.govhttps://fischbach.house.gov/2026/5/permanent-year-round-e15-legislation-passes-u-s-house
  31. greenairnews.comhttps://www.greenairnews.com/?p=8219
  32. ethanolproducer.comhttps://ethanolproducer.com/articles/lanzajet-announces-47-million-in-new-capital-first-close-of-equity-round
  33. fastmarkets.comhttps://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/european-saf-market-reshaped-production-costs-h1-2026/
  34. ofimagazine.comhttps://www.ofimagazine.com/news/global-saf-prices-surge-by-10
  35. politico.euhttps://www.politico.eu/article/eu-backs-off-penalties-for-failing-to-supply-green-aviation-fuel/
  36. eur-lex.europa.euhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/2405/oj
  37. eur-lex.europa.euhttps://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2023/2413/oj
  38. gleisslutz.comhttps://www.gleisslutz.com/en/know-how/significant-changes-during-legislative-process-german-cabinet-approves-draft-second-act-further-develop-greenhouse-gas-reduction
  39. greenairnews.comhttps://www.greenairnews.com/?p=9320
  40. blogs.worldbank.orghttps://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging
  41. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU06140341
  42. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSOILUSDM

Also cited in this brief

  1. pages.stern.nyu.eduhttps://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/wacc.html
  2. pages.stern.nyu.eduhttps://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/margin.html

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