Wind poweronshore, offshore fixed-bottom and floating

At a glance

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Value chain

Parameters

13 parameters: 8 sourced, 5 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

Price feeds (12)

Listed tickers (22)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Trends and research findings

Trends

• Offshore downgrade2025-2030

  Offshore wind growth forecast revised down by more than 25%; global wind still nearly doubles to >2,000 GW by 2030 led by China/EU onshore.

  iea.org

• US offshore under federal pressure2025-2029

  BOEM stop-work order on Revolution Wind (Aug-2025) and Interior suspension of five leases (Dec-2025) - both overturned in court; Empire Wind slipped to 2027.

  en.wikipedia.org

• European developer retrenchment2025-2027

  Orsted cancelled Hornsea 4 (2.4 GW) in May-2025 and sold 50% of Hornsea 3 to Apollo for USD 6.1bn (Dec-2025).

  en.wikipedia.org

• India onshore revival and offshore start2025-2032

  Installed wind reached 56 GW (Mar-2026); repowering potential ~25.4 GW; VGF scheme (Jun-2024) supports the first 1 GW offshore off Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.

  en.wikipedia.org

• Western OEM margin pressure vs Chinese price gap2024-2028

  Western wind manufacturers reported cumulative losses of USD 1.2bn; Chinese turbine prices down ~50% since 2022 while European prices rose.

  iea.org

• North Sea grid integration2026-2040

  UK joining the European plan for a ~100 GW North Sea offshore grid (2026) via hybrid interconnectors.

  en.wikipedia.org

Research findings

• Lazard LCOE+ 2026 wind

  Onshore capex USD 1,900-2,750/kW, LCOE USD 37-99/MWh; offshore capex USD 5,600-7,100/kW, LCOE USD 105-167/MWh (USD 77-150 with PTC).

  lazard.com

• EIA AEO2026

  Onshore wind USD 1,712/kW (3-yr lead), offshore USD 3,711/kW (4-yr lead) with fixed O&M USD 161/kW-yr offshore.

  eia.gov

• Overrun record

  Wind projects averaged ~7.7% cost overrun in a 401-project sample - low vs hydro/nuclear.

  doi.org

• Rare earth dependence

  China dominates REE mining (60%) and refining (90%), and ~90% of magnet production used in large turbines.

  iea.org

• Cable and steel inflation

  US power wire & cable PPI +116% and steel mill products +104% vs Jan-2020 (Aug-2026).

  fred.stlouisfed.org

• India tariff drift

  Wind auction tariffs rose from a record-low Rs 2.43/kWh (Dec-2017) to ~Rs 3.17/kWh (May-2023) as CUF-adjusted capex increased.

  en.wikipedia.org

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

• Capex per MW (Rs crore/MW, USD/kW)
• Net capacity factor / PLF (%)
• Turbine availability (%)
• Curtailment (%)
• LCOE (USD/MWh)
• PPA/CfD tariff
• Turbines installed per vessel-day (offshore)
• Months from FID to COD
• OEM order backlog (GW)
• Warranty cost (% of revenue)
• Lost production factor (%)

Regional notes

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

• Turbines (nacelle, blades, hub)40%
  Equipment

  • Electrical equipment 40%
  • Steel 30%
  • Copper 15%
  • Policy 15%
• Towers and foundations16%
  Equipment

  • Steel 70%
  • Construction materials 30%
• Electrical BOS: cables, substations, transformers14%
  Equipment

  • Electrical equipment 50%
  • Copper 40%
  • Aluminium 10%
• Installation, logistics and civil works13%
  Construction

  • Labour 50%
  • Construction materials 30%
  • Oil 20%
• Development, land/seabed lease, permits6%
  Develop

  • Policy 70%
  • Grid queue 30%
• Financing, insurance, IDC and contingency6%
  Indirects

  • Interest rates 100%
• Engineering and project management4%
  Engineering

  • Labour 80%
• Commissioning and spares1%
  Commissioning

Financial template

How Capibud uses this pack

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

1. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025/executive-summary
2. lazard.comhttps://www.lazard.com/media/kcfconhf/lazards-lcoeplus_vf.pdf
3. eia.govhttps://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/EMM_Assumptions.pdf
4. doi.orghttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2014.07.016
5. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_India
6. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_Wind
7. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empire_Wind
8. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsea_Wind_Farm
9. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshore_wind_power
10. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act
11. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU3359293359291
12. mnre.gov.inhttps://mnre.gov.in/