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Industry brief · Power & digital

Thermal power generationcoal SC/USC, CCGT, peakers, FGD retrofits

Dispatchable fossil generation: supercritical/ultra-supercritical coal (India's 2032 build-out of 80-90+ GW), gas combined-cycle and peaking plants (US/ME load-growth wave driven by data centres), and emissions-control retrofits (FGD, SCR, ESP upgrades). Capital risk is dominated by OEM slot scarcity (gas turbines sold out to ~2029-30), EPC execution on boilers/BOP, fuel-linkage and environmental-clearance delays, and financing/ESG constraints.

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
10 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%2.5%5%10%15%20%Probability →Cost impact →Gas turbine / BTG OEM slot scarcity: 45% likely, 12% cost impact, 18 monthsEPC contractor execution failure / insolvency: 20% likely, 15% cost impact, 18 monthsEnvironmental clearance and FGD compliance regime changes: 30% likely, 6% cost impact, 9 monthsInterconnection and transmission evacuation delay: 20% likely, 3% cost impact, 8 monthsFuel linkage / gas supply shortfall: 25% likely, 5% cost impact, 6 monthsFinancing / ESG exclusion of coal: 25% likely, 4% cost impact, 6 monthsSkilled labour shortage (welders, HRSG/boiler erectors): 35% likely, 6% cost impact, 5 monthsCommissioning defects (boiler tube leaks, turbine vibration, HRSG issues): 30% likely, 3% cost impact, 4 monthsFuel price spike erodes merchant margin: 35% likely, 0% cost impact, 0 monthsCarbon policy / stranded-asset risk: 20% likely, 10% cost impact, 0 monthsGas turbineEPC contractor execution…Skilled labour shortage

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 15 cited sources · 14 parameters · 10 swing factors.

At a glance

1,100Capex intensity · USD/kW (India SC/USC coal; CCGT US ~2,000)range 900–2,600 · estimate
54Construction time · monthsrange 30–72 · sourced
13%Mean cost overrunrange 0%–40% · sourced
35%Mean schedule overrunrange 10%–90% · estimate

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
Supercritical / ultra-supercritical coal (660-800 MW units)Pulverised-coal units at 24-30 MPa / 565-600 C; India's new build is almost entirely 660/800 MW SC/USC units by NTPC, Adani Power, state gencos and JSW/Torrent; US/EU new build is effectively nil.900–1,400USD per kWIndia: ~Rs 8.5-12 crore/MW all-in (USD 900-1,250/kW at INR 95.8/USD) - estimate from recent NTPC/BHEL/Adani awards. US reference: EIA AEO2023 USC overnight cost USD 4,507/kW; AEO2026 only models USC+30% CCS at USD 5,520/kW (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/EMM_Assumptions.pdf). Lazard LCOE+ 2026 coal capex USD 3,495-7,405/kW.
Gas combined-cycle (H/J/F-class, 500-1,400 MW)Gas turbine + HRSG + steam turbine blocks; the main firm-capacity build in the US (ERCOT, PJM, Southeast), Middle East and parts of Asia; India adds little gas capacity due to LNG costs.1,032–2,600USD per kWEIA AEO2026 overnight: USD 1,032/kW multi-shaft, USD 1,086/kW single-shaft (2025$). Lazard LCOE+ 2026: USD 1,450-2,100/kW base, with market quotes of USD 2,400-2,600/kW for post-2028 COD projects (https://www.lazard.com/media/kcfconhf/lazards-lcoeplus_vf.pdf).
Simple-cycle peakers (frame/aeroderivative CTs, RICE)Fast-start capacity for reserve margins and data-centre backup/bridging power; aeroderivatives and reciprocating engines (Wartsila, Jenbacher, Cummins) increasingly used behind-the-meter.1,100–2,300USD per kWLazard 2026 gas peaking USD 1,100-1,650/kW; EIA AEO2026 aeroderivative USD 2,275/kW, industrial frame USD 1,158/kW.
Emission-control retrofits (wet limestone FGD, SCR, ESP)Retrofitting SO2/NOx/particulate controls on existing coal fleets; India's FGD programme (~200 GW originally covered) was re-scoped in 2025 with many units exempted or deadlines pushed to 2027-2030.50–1,200USD per kWIndia wet FGD ~Rs 0.45-0.9 crore/MW (~USD 50-95/kW) - estimate. US EIA AEO2026 FGD retrofit: USD 550/kW (>=700 MW) to USD 1,196/kW (<100 MW); SCR USD 284-491/kW; fabric filter USD 189-342/kW.
R&M, life extension and flexibilisationRenovation & modernisation of 200-500 MW units, 40% minimum-load flexibilisation (CEA), biomass co-firing (India 5-7% mandate) and ammonia co-firing pilots.80–400USD per kWestimate; flexibilisation retrofits typically USD 10-60/kW, full R&M USD 150-400/kW.

Value chain

Inputs

  • thermal coal (domestic linkage/e-auction/imported)
  • natural gas / LNG
  • limestone (FGD reagent)
  • water (cooling)
  • boiler pressure parts and alloy steel (P91/P92)
  • gas turbines, steam turbines, generators
  • GSU transformers and switchyard
  • EPC labour and heavy lift

Process

  • coal handling & milling
  • SC/USC boiler steam generation
  • gas turbine Brayton cycle + HRSG
  • steam turbine-generator
  • cooling (natural draft / ACC)
  • flue-gas cleaning (ESP/FGD/SCR)
  • ash handling and utilisation
  • grid synchronisation and dispatch

Outputs

  • baseload and mid-merit electricity
  • firm capacity / ancillary services
  • process steam (cogeneration)
  • fly ash and gypsum by-products
  • CO2/SOx/NOx emissions

Parameters

14 parameters: 8 sourced, 6 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensity(India SC/USC coal; CCGT US ~2,000)1,100 USD/kWrange 900–2,600estimateas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com India coal Rs 8.5-12 cr/MW); (CCGT USD 1,450-2,600/kW
Construction months54 monthsrange 30–72sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com
Cost overrun mean13%range 0%–40%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026doi.org
Schedule overrun mean35%range 10%–90%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026CEA broad-status reports show Indian coal units typically 1.5-4 years late
Asset life (years)40 yearsrange 25–50sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com
WACC9.5%range 7%–12%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026India 10Y 6.8% + regulated equity premium; US IPP 7.5-9.5%
Typical IRR(equity)14%range 10%–18%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026cercind.gov.in
Utilization(PLF)68%range 45%–85%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026en.wikipedia.org
Opex % of revenue68%range 55%–80%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026fuel 55-70% of revenue for coal/gas IPPs
EBITDA margin30%range 20%–45%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026NTPC standalone ~28-30%, Adani Power ~35-40%, US IPPs 25-35%
Heat rate Btu per kWh(USC coal; CCGT ~6,300)8,750 Btu/kWhrange 6,200–12,000sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com
Unit size MW800 MW per unitrange 250–1,400estimateas of 5 Oct 2026India standard 660/800 MW; CCGT blocks 400-1,400 MW
Fgd capex (USD per kW)(US >=700 MW); India ~60550 USD/kWrange 50–1,200sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026eia.gov
Gas turbine slot lead time (years)4 years from reservation to deliveryrange 2–6sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026lazard.com

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
Gas turbine / BTG OEM slot scarcitySupply chain Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.5 · Data-centre demand 0.4 · Steel 0.1Watch: GE Vernova/Siemens Energy/MHI slot-reservation backlog disclosures; PPI turbines (PCU333611333611); BHEL order book vs execution run-rate
45%
12%
18 mo
EPC contractor execution failure / insolvencyInterface Shared factors: Labour 0.4 · Steel 0.2 · Construction materials 0.2 · Interest rates 0.2Watch: EPC working-capital stress and LD claims; BOP sub-vendor delays; BGR-type contractor NCLT filings
20%
15%
18 mo
Skilled labour shortage (welders, HRSG/boiler erectors)Labour Shared factors: Labour 0.8 · Data-centre demand 0.2Watch: construction wages (CES2000000003); competing data-centre/LNG megaprojects in region; IBR-certified welder availability
35%
6%
5 mo
Carbon policy / stranded-asset riskESG Shared factors: Policy 0.7 · Power price 0.3Watch: EU ETS price; India CCTS carbon market rules; EPA power-plant GHG rule litigation
20%
10%
0 mo
Environmental clearance and FGD compliance regime changesRegulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.8 · Construction materials 0.2Watch: MoEFCC SO2 norm notifications; court challenges to clearances; EPA MATS/ELG rule changes
30%
6%
9 mo
Fuel linkage / gas supply shortfallCommodity Shared factors: Gas 0.5 · Policy 0.4 · Oil 0.1Watch: Coal India despatch vs target; pipeline firm-transport availability; LNG spot vs contract spread
25%
5%
6 mo
Financing / ESG exclusion of coalFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.6 · Policy 0.4Watch: bank/insurer coal exclusion policies; PFC/REC lending spreads; US 10Y / India 10Y moves
25%
4%
6 mo
Commissioning defects (boiler tube leaks, turbine vibration, HRSG issues)Technical Shared factors: Labour 0.6 · Electrical equipment 0.4Watch: first-of-fleet USC metallurgy; trial-operation forced outages; OEM warranty claims
30%
3%
4 mo
Interconnection and transmission evacuation delayInterface Shared factors: Grid queue 0.7 · Electrical equipment 0.3Watch: ISO queue position and study timelines; GSU transformer delivery dates; CTUIL connectivity grants
20%
3%
8 mo
Fuel price spike erodes merchant marginCommodity Shared factors: Gas 0.6 · Oil 0.2 · Power price 0.2Watch: TTF and JKM forward curve; Newcastle coal; spark/dark spreads
35%
0%
0 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
Seaborne thermal coal (Australian Newcastle)Imported-coal plants (Mundra, coastal IPPs) pass through only partly; +USD 10/t ~ +Rs 0.05-0.07/kWh fuel cost at 5,500 kcal coal. FRED latest USD 140/t (Jul-2026), +21% y/y.90–250USD/tOpex, Revenue
Henry Hub natural gasAt 6,300 Btu/kWh heat rate, +USD 1/MMBtu = +USD 6.3/MWh CCGT fuel cost.2–9USD/MMBtuOpex, Margin
European gas (FRED EU benchmark / TTF)EU gas sets marginal power price in most hours; Jul-2026 FRED value USD 17.9/MMBtu (+56% y/y) widens coal-gas switching spread.6–50USD/MMBtuOpex, Margin, Revenue
Asian LNG spotDetermines viability of India's ~25 GW stranded gas fleet; above ~USD 10/MMBtu Indian CCGTs run only under subsidy schemes.8–25USD/MMBtuOpex
Plant load factor / capacity factorIndia national coal PLF ~65-70%, NTPC ~77-80%; US CCGT CF 50-65%. Each 5 pt PLF ~ 6-7% revenue for merchant units.40%–85%Revenue, Margin
Capacity market clearing price (PJM RPM)PJM 2026/27 and 2027/28 BRAs cleared at the ~USD 329-333/MW-day cap; drives CCGT/peaker FIDs in PJM.30–340USD/MW-dayRevenue
US industrial electric power PPIProxy for wholesale/retail tightness; +49% since Jan-2020.250–400indexRevenue
Turbine & turbine-generator set PPIGas/steam turbines are 20-30% of CCGT capex; PPI +28% since 2020 understates slot-reservation premia.220–320indexCapex
Show 5 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
Steel mill products PPIBoiler pressure parts, structures and ducts: ~12-18% of coal capex is steel-linked; PPI +23% y/y (Aug-2026).180–420indexCapex
US 10-year Treasury4-5 year build: +100 bp ~ +3-4% to total capex via IDC.3–6percentFinancing, Capex
India 10-year G-secRegulated CERC tariffs pass through actual debt cost; merchant IPPs exposed.6–8percentFinancing
INR per USDImported coal, Chinese BTG and spares; 10% INR depreciation ~ +3-5% capex for imported-equipment plants.80–100INR/USDCapex, Opex
EU ETS allowance priceCoal ~0.9 tCO2/MWh vs CCGT ~0.35; +EUR 10/t widens coal-gas cost gap by ~EUR 5.5/MWh.55–110EUR/tCO2Opex, Margin

Price feeds (16)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
Global price of Coal, AustraliaPCOALAUUSDMFREDUSD/tmonthly
API2 CIF ARA coal futuresMTF=FYahooUSD/tdaily
Henry Hub spot natural gasDHHNGSPFREDUSD/MMBtudaily
NYMEX natural gas front monthNG=FYahooUSD/MMBtudaily
Global price of Natural Gas, EUPNGASEUUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
Dutch TTF gas futuresTTF=FYahooEUR/MWhdaily
Global price of LNG, AsiaPNGASJPUSDMFREDUSD/MMBtumonthly
PPI: Turbine and turbine generator set unitsPCU333611333611FREDindexmonthly
Show 8 more feeds
SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
PPI: Steel mill productsWPU1017FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Power and specialty transformersPCU335311335311FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Electric power generationPCU2211122111FREDindexmonthly
PPI: Industrial electric powerWPU0543FREDindexmonthly
US 10-year Treasury yieldDGS10FREDpercentdaily
India 10-year government bond yieldINDIRLTLT01STMFREDpercentmonthly
INR per USDDEXINUSFREDINR/USDdaily
EU carbon allowance ETC (SparkChange)CO2.LYahooEURdaily

Listed tickers (21)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 10

  • NTPC.NS NTPC Ltd NSE · IN
  • ADANIPOWER.NS Adani Power NSE · IN
  • TATAPOWER.NS Tata Power NSE · IN
  • JSWENERGY.NS JSW Energy NSE · IN
  • TORNTPOWER.NS Torrent Power NSE · IN
  • NLCINDIA.NS NLC India NSE · IN
  • VST Vistra Corp NYSE · US
  • NRG NRG Energy NYSE · US
  • RWE.DE RWE AG XETRA · EU
  • CEZ.PR CEZ a.s. PSE · EU

Suppliers · 11

  • BHEL.NS Bharat Heavy Electricals NSE · IN
  • COALINDIA.NS Coal India NSE · IN
  • THERMAX.NS Thermax NSE · IN
  • POWERMECH.NS Power Mech Projects NSE · IN
  • GVPIL.NS GE Power India NSE · IN
  • GEV GE Vernova NYSE · US
  • BTU Peabody Energy NYSE · US
  • ENR.DE Siemens Energy XETRA · EU
  • WRT1V.HE Wartsila Nasdaq Helsinki · EU
  • 7011.T Mitsubishi Heavy Industries TSE · APAC
  • 034020.KS Doosan Enerbility KRX · APAC

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • Plant load factor / capacity factor (%)
  • Net heat rate (Btu/kWh or kcal/kWh)
  • Equivalent forced outage rate (%)
  • Auxiliary consumption (%)
  • Specific coal consumption (kg/kWh)
  • Fuel cost per kWh
  • Capacity charge recovery (% of normative availability)
  • SO2/NOx/PM emissions vs norms (mg/Nm3)
  • Ash utilisation (%)
  • Cost per MW vs sanctioned (crore/MW)
  • Months from LoA to COD
  • Receivable days from discoms

Regional notes

IndiaCoal ~73% of generation; total installed 513.7 GW (Dec-2025) with >50% non-fossil capacity, but government targets ~80-90 GW new coal by FY2032 for peak adequacy. Key constraints: BHEL/L&T execution bandwidth, land and forest clearances, Chinese-equipment restrictions, discom payment discipline. Gas fleet (~25 GW) largely stranded by LNG prices.
United StatesLoad growth from data centres/manufacturing drives a gas wave (CCGTs, peakers, behind-the-meter turbines) but turbine slots are sold out to ~2029-30; coal retirements are being deferred (DOE 202(c) orders, utility IRP revisions). OBBBA leaves gas unaffected while curbing wind/solar credits.
EuropeCoal exits (DE by 2038 or earlier, IT/ES/FR complete by ~2025-27); new gas capacity limited to H2-ready backup via capacity mechanisms (German Kraftwerksstrategie, Polish/Italian capacity markets). ETS EUR 60-100/t makes coal uneconomic outside crises; 2026 gas price spike (TTF ~EUR 75/MWh) revived coal reserve dispatch.
Middle EastSaudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq are converting open-cycle to combined-cycle and adding large CCGTs (SEC/ACWA/Marubeni); competes with US for turbine slots.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 12

  • NTPC Ltd New Delhi · IN~80 GW group installed capacity (largest in India); ~17-20 GW coal under construction; PLF ~80% vs national ~65%.
  • Adani Power Ahmedabad · INLargest private thermal IPP (~18 GW operating after acquisitions); targeting ~30+ GW by FY2030-32 with large BHEL 800 MW orders.
  • Tata Power Mumbai · INMundra 4 GW imported-coal UMPP plus Maithon; pivoting capex to renewables and T&D.
  • JSW Energy Mumbai · INAcquired KSK Mahanadi (1.8 GW) in 2025; thermal plus large RE/storage pipeline.
  • State gencos (MAHAGENCO, UPRVUNL, TANGEDCO, WBPDCL, APGENCO) Various · INAccount for roughly a third of India's coal fleet; many new 660/800 MW units awarded 2023-26.
  • Damodar Valley Corporation Kolkata · INCentral PSU with coal + hydro; brownfield 2x800 MW expansions.
  • Vistra Corp Irving, TX · US~41 GW fleet incl. gas, coal, nuclear; acquiring gas plants and building peakers for ERCOT/PJM load growth.
  • NRG Energy Houston, TX · USBought ~13 GW of LS Power gas assets (2025); 1.5 GW+ new Texas gas under TEF loans.
  • Duke Energy / Southern Company / Entergy Charlotte / Atlanta / New Orleans · USRegulated utilities with multi-GW CCGT build plans tied to data-centre load (each 5-10+ GW of new gas in IRPs).
  • RWE / Uniper / EPH Essen / Dusseldorf / Prague · EUGas fleets positioned for German Kraftwerksstrategie H2-ready gas plant tenders; coal exits by 2030-2038.
  • PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna Warsaw · EULargest EU coal-dependent utility; building CCGTs (Rybnik, Dolna Odra) to replace lignite/coal.
  • Saudi Electricity Co. / ACWA Power Riyadh · MELarge CCGT conversion and new-build programme (PIF/SEC ~10+ GW awarded 2024-25).

Suppliers · 15

  • BHEL OEM · INDominant Indian boiler-turbine-generator supplier; record thermal order inflow FY24-FY26 (>20 GW of 800 MW sets); execution capacity is a binding constraint.
  • L&T-MHI Power Boilers & Turbine Generators OEM · INSC/USC BTG and FGD EPC; L&T is a lead FGD contractor.
  • GE Vernova OEM · USHA-class gas turbines; reports multi-year slot reservation backlog (deliveries largely sold to ~2028-29).
  • Siemens Energy OEM · EUSGT-8000H/9000HL turbines; record gas services backlog; expanding Charlotte/Berlin capacity.
  • Mitsubishi Power (MHI) OEM · APACM501JAC turbines; doubling gas turbine output capacity by ~2027.
  • Doosan Enerbility OEM · APACBoilers, steam turbines and new 380 MW-class gas turbine supplying US data-centre projects.
  • Harbin / Dongfang / Shanghai Electric OEM · APACChinese BTG suppliers; restricted in Indian state utility tenders (Press Note 3 / GFR curbs).
  • Thermax OEM · INBoilers, HRSGs, FGD and air-pollution control; captive and utility.
  • Isgec Heavy Engineering EPC · INBoilers and FGD EPC; utility and industrial.
  • Andritz / GE Vernova (Alstom legacy) / Ducon EPC · EUWet limestone FGD technology licensors/EPCs active in India retrofits.
  • Babcock & Wilcox OEM · USBoilers and environmental controls; pivoting to data-centre gas/steam solutions.
  • Wartsila / Caterpillar / Cummins OEM · EUReciprocating engines for flexible peakers and behind-the-meter data-centre power.
  • Bechtel / Kiewit / Zachry / Burns & McDonnell EPC · USUS CCGT EPC capacity is constrained; EPCs shifting to cost-reimbursable terms.
  • Power Mech Projects Services · INErection, testing and commissioning plus O&M for Indian thermal units.
  • Coal India Ltd Materials · IN~75-80% of domestic coal supply; FSA linkages determine new-plant fuel security.

Customers · 6

  • State distribution utilities (discoms) regulated offtakeLong-term PPAs (25 yr) under Section 62/63; payment security via LPS Rules 2022.
  • Hyperscale / AI data centres large loadDriving US CCGT and on-site gas generation demand; IEA expects gas to supply ~175 TWh of additional data-centre demand to 2035.
  • Wholesale markets (PJM, ERCOT, MISO, IEX) merchantEnergy + capacity revenue; PJM capacity prices at cap for 2026/27-2027/28.
  • Energy-intensive industry (aluminium, steel, cement, chemicals) captive / C&ICaptive coal plants in India (~75 GW).
  • Grid operators / TSOs ancillary & reservesStrategic reserves (EU), reliability-must-run and DOE 202(c) emergency orders in US.
  • Indian Railways and metro systems bulk PPAProcure round-the-clock thermal-backed supply.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
A100Feasibility, site selection and fuel/water linkageDevelop · factors: Policy, Gas12%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
A110Land acquisition and environmental/forest clearance (EIA, CTE)Develop · factors: Policy15%0.85 / 1 / 1.8
A120Grid connectivity / interconnection agreementDevelop · factors: Grid queue12%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
B100Owner's engineer, basic design and BTG/EPC tenderingEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour8%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
C100Long-lead BTG / gas turbine & HRSG order and manufactureProcure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Steel45%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
C110GSU transformers, switchyard and HV equipmentProcure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Copper35%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
B110Detailed engineering (BTG + BOP)Engineer · EPC · factors: Labour20%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
D100Civil works: piling, foundations, chimney, cooling towerConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Labour30%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
D110Boiler / HRSG erection and pressure-parts weldingConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel30%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
D120Turbine-generator erection and alignmentConstruct · OEM · factors: Labour, Electrical equipment15%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
D130BOP: coal/ash handling, water, FGD/SCR, electricalConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel, Copper30%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
E100Pre-commissioning: hydro test, boiler light-up, steam blowCommission · EPC · factors: Labour, Gas8%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
E110Synchronisation, trial operation (72 h) and CODCommission · factors: Grid queue, Electrical equipment5%0.9 / 1 / 1.7

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Boiler / HRSG and pressure parts24%
    Equipment
    • Steel 60%
    • Labour 20%
  • Turbine-generator sets (steam and/or gas)20%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 60%
    • Steel 20%
    • Copper 10%
  • Balance of plant (coal/ash handling, cooling, water, FGD)16%
    Equipment
    • Steel 40%
    • Construction materials 20%
  • Civil and structural works14%
    Construction
    • Construction materials 60%
    • Steel 30%
  • Electrical: GSU, switchyard, cabling, C&I8%
    Equipment
    • Electrical equipment 50%
    • Copper 30%
    • Aluminium 10%
  • Erection and site labour7%
    Labour
    • Labour 100%
  • Interest during construction and financing fees5%
    Indirects
    • Interest rates 100%
  • Engineering, owner's costs and land4%
    Engineering
  • Commissioning, startup fuel and spares2%
    Commissioning
    • Gas 50%
    • Oil 20%

Financial template

Revenue model

India: two-part regulated tariff (capacity charge recovering fixed cost + 15.5% ROE at normative availability, energy charge passing through fuel) or Section 63 bid tariffs; US/EU: merchant energy margin (spark/dark spread) + capacity payments + ancillary services, or tolling/PPA with utilities and data-centre offtakers.

Margin driver

Plant load factor / capacity factor

Ramp-up

1 year to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a thermal power generation decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 14 parameters, 10 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are electrical equipment, policy, labour and data-centre demand. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 16 price feeds and 21 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Electrical equipment
  • Policy
  • Labour
  • Data-centre demand
  • Interest rates
  • Steel
  • Construction materials
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Steel29%
  • Electrical equipment16%
  • Labour11.8%
  • Construction materials11.6%
  • Interest rates5%
  • Copper4.4%
  • Gas1%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. eia.govhttps://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/EMM_Assumptions.pdf
  2. lazard.comhttps://www.lazard.com/media/kcfconhf/lazards-lcoeplus_vf.pdf
  3. globalenergymonitor.orghttps://globalenergymonitor.org/report/boom-and-bust-coal-2025/
  4. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025/executive-summary
  5. iea.orghttps://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/executive-summary
  6. doi.orghttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2014.07.016
  7. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NTPC_Limited
  8. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_India
  9. en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flue-gas_desulfurization
  10. cercind.gov.inhttps://cercind.gov.in/
  11. cea.nic.inhttps://cea.nic.in/
  12. pjm.comhttps://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/rpm
  13. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU333611333611
  14. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOALAUUSDM
  15. fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNGASEUUSDM

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