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Industry brief · Materials, infrastructure & industry
Roads & highwaysexpressways, NH, toll roads
Design, construction, financing and operation of national highways, expressways, bridges and toll roads under EPC, Hybrid Annuity (HAM), BOT-toll, TOT and InvIT models. India's MoRTH/NHAI programme (Bharatmala, expressways) is the world's largest road pipeline (1,120 central projects worth INR 10.35 lakh cr monitored by MoSPI in Mar 2026); the US is in the final year of IIJA formula funding; the EU builds out TEN-T core corridors to 2030. Roads are the best-performing infrastructure reference class (mean cost overrun ~15%) but suffer chronic schedule slippage from land and clearances.
Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 15 cited sources · 13 parameters · 11 swing factors · 1 source conflict shown side by side.
At a glance
Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources
Sub-industries
Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.
| Sub-industry | Capex intensity | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| National highway widening / new alignment (EPC)Government-funded fixed-price EPC packages (2/4/6-lane). | 2–6USD million per km (4-lane equivalent) | India 4-laning ~INR 18-35 cr/km civil cost ex-land (estimate); Paniyala-Barodameo 86 km 6-lane cost INR 2,876 cr incl. land (~INR 33 cr/km) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delhi–Mumbai_Expressway). |
| Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM)NHAI pays 40% of bid project cost during construction; developer finances 60% and is repaid via semi-annual annuities over 15 years plus interest and O&M payments. | 2.5–7USD million per km | Low traffic risk; developer equity ~10-12% of cost (estimate). |
| BOT-toll / concession roadsDeveloper finances, builds and collects tolls for 15-30 years. | 3–10USD million per km | Traffic-risk bearing; revived in India 2025-26 via revised model concession agreement (estimate). |
| Access-controlled expresswaysGreenfield 6-8 lane expressways (Delhi–Mumbai, Samruddhi, Ganga). | 4–12USD million per km | estimate |
| Major bridges, sea links & tunnelsLong-span bridges, sea links (MTHL), mountain tunnels (Zojila). | 20–300USD million per km | Reference class: bridges +26%, tunnels +36% mean overrun (https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.15757). |
| US interstate reconstruction & managed lanesState DOT design-bid-build, design-build and P3 express lanes. | 3–25USD million per lane-mile | Urban reconstruction at top of range (estimate). |
| TOT / InvIT asset monetisationOperating toll roads sold or leased for upfront payment (NHAI TOT bundles, NHAI InvIT, IRB InvIT). | 8–16EV/EBITDA multiple | estimate |
Value chain
Inputs
- land (right of way)
- aggregates & sand
- bitumen
- cement & ready-mix
- rebar & structural steel
- diesel
- construction equipment
- labour
- toll systems (FASTag/ETC)
Process
- traffic study & DPR
- land acquisition & utility shifting
- clearances (environment, forest, wildlife)
- bid/award & financial closure
- earthwork & embankment
- structures (bridges, ROBs, underpasses)
- pavement (flexible/rigid)
- road furniture, ITS/ATMS & toll plazas
- O&M and periodic maintenance
Outputs
- lane-km of highway
- toll revenue / annuities
- vehicle-km travelled
- logistics time & cost savings
Parameters
13 parameters: 4 sourced, 9 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.
| Parameter | Default & range | Evidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capex intensity(4/6-lane NH incl. structures, ex-land)INR ~30 cr/km at INR 88/USD. | 3.5 USD million per kmrange 1.5–12 | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Construction monthsMedian planned duration of 572 road projects parsed from MoSPI QPISR Q1 FY26. | 34 monthsrange 18–60 | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in |
| Cost overrun mean sources disagreeFlyvbjerg 2026 roads mean 1.15 (N=2,086), 10% of projects >50%; Flyvbjerg 2002: 20.4%. MoSPI India roads: +5.5% anticipated vs original (Q1 FY26), +2.5% revised (Mar 2026). | 15%range 0%–60% | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | arxiv.org |
| Schedule overrun meanCapibud parse: 63% of road projects delayed; median delay 11 months on 34-month plans (≈31%); mean is skewed by long tail (124%). | 31%range 0%–150% | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in |
| Asset life (years)(concession/economic)Pavement 15-20 yrs (flexible) to 30+ (rigid); bridges 100 yrs. | 30 yearsrange 15–100 | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| WACCIndia HAM/BOT nominal; India 10Y 6.78% (Jul 2026). | 10%range 8%–13% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Typical IRR(equity IRR) | 14%range 10%–20% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Utilization(actual vs forecast traffic)Half of road projects miss traffic forecasts by more than ±20%. | 90%range 50%–130% | sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026 | arxiv.org |
| Opex % of revenue(operating toll road) | 15%range 8%–30% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| EBITDA margin(toll concession)EPC contractors 10-15% EBITDA. | 82%range 65%–92% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Land share of cost | 20%range 5%–45% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| HAM construction supportof bid project costNHAI HAM: 40% paid in construction milestones. | 40%range 40%–40% | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
| Concession years | 20 yearsrange 15–30 | estimateas of 5 Oct 2026 | Informed estimate; no single source |
Where sources disagree
Kept side by side, not averaged. The pack default is in the table above.
Cost overrun mean
Global reference class vs Indian monitoring data differ by an order of magnitude.
What moves value
Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.
Market signals
What moves the case
Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.
| Variable | Typical range | Affects |
|---|---|---|
| Highway award & construction paceIndia MoRTH constructed ~10-12k km/yr in recent years (estimate); drives EPC order books. | 5,000–13,000km/year | Revenue |
| US highway & street construction spendingUSD 152bn SAAR in Aug 2026 (+4.6% y/y). | 100,000–160,000USD mn SAAR | Revenue |
| Bitumen / crude oil priceBitumen ~8-12% of flexible-pavement project cost; price-variation clauses only partially pass through (estimate). | 55–130USD/bbl | Capex, Opex |
| Diesel priceEarthwork fleets are diesel-intensive. | 3–6USD/gal | Capex |
| Aggregates & concrete pricesRigid pavements and structures. | 300–450index | Capex |
| Rebar / structural steelStructures ~25% of cost; steel ~30% of structure cost (estimate). | 250–420index | Capex |
| Traffic growth vs forecastRoads: half of projects deviate >±20% from forecast (Flyvbjerg 2005); average actual traffic +9.5% vs forecast. | −30%–30% | Revenue |
| Toll rate indexation (WPI-linked in India)Annual revision 1 April; 3% fixed + 40% of WPI change (estimate). | 0%–8% | Revenue |
Show 3 more variables
| Variable | Typical range | Affects |
|---|---|---|
| Land acquisition share of project costRFCTLARR 2013 compensation multiples drive greenfield land cost. | 5%–45% | Capex |
| Equity IRR (HAM/BOT)Primary return metric for developers. | 10%–18% | Revenue, Financing |
| India / US 10Y yieldsHAM annuity interest = bank rate + 3% (estimate); BOT valuations rate-sensitive. | 3–7.5 | Financing |
Price feeds (16)
| Series | Source / id | Unit | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| US highway & street construction spending | TLHWYCONSFRED | USD mn SAAR | monthly |
| US public construction spending | TLPBLCONSFRED | USD mn SAAR | monthly |
| PPI: construction materials | WPUSI012011FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: inputs to other nonresidential construction (goods) | WPUIP2312301FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: sand, gravel & crushed stone | WPS1321FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: ready-mix concrete | PCU327320327320FRED | index | monthly |
| PPI: iron & steel | WPU101FRED | index | monthly |
| Brent crude | DCOILBRENTEUFRED | USD/bbl | daily |
Show 8 more feeds
| Series | Source / id | Unit | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| US diesel retail price | GASDESWFRED | USD/gal | weekly |
| India 10Y yield | INDIRLTLT01STMFRED | % | monthly |
| US 10Y Treasury | DGS10FRED | % | daily |
| NIFTY Infrastructure | ^CNXINFRAYahoo | index | daily |
| Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF | PAVEYahoo | USD | daily |
| ENR Construction Cost Index | ENR:CCIother | index | monthly |
| Eurostat construction cost index | Eurostat:sts_copi_qother | index | quarterly |
| India WPI: bitumen | OEA:WPI-bitumenother | index | monthly |
Listed tickers (21)
Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.
Operators · 7
- IRB.NS IRB Infrastructure Developers NSE · IN
- IRBINVIT.NS IRB InvIT Fund NSE · IN
- ASHOKA.NS Ashoka Buildcon NSE · IN
- FER Ferrovial (Cintra) NASDAQ · EU
- DG.PA Vinci Euronext Paris · EU
- ACS.MC ACS (Iridium, Hochtief) BME · EU
- TCL.AX Transurban ASX · APAC
Suppliers · 13
- LT.NS Larsen & Toubro NSE · IN
- GRINFRA.NS G R Infraprojects NSE · IN
- KNRCON.NS KNR Constructions NSE · IN
- PNCINFRA.NS PNC Infratech NSE · IN
- HGINFRA.NS H.G. Infra Engineering NSE · IN
- DBL.NS Dilip Buildcon NSE · IN
- VMC Vulcan Materials NYSE · US
- MLM Martin Marietta NYSE · US
- GVA Granite Construction NYSE · US
- STRL Sterling Infrastructure NASDAQ · US
- ACM AECOM NYSE · US
- STR.VI Strabag Wiener Börse · EU
- SKA-B.ST Skanska Nasdaq Stockholm · EU
Proxys · 1
- PAVE Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF Cboe BZX · US
Trends and research findings
Trends
- India's road capex plateaus at high level2025-2030
MoRTH has 1,120 central projects (INR 10.35 lakh cr original, INR 3.52 lakh cr spent) under monitoring in Mar 2026; 410 are mega projects (≥INR 1,000 cr).
- Shift from HAM/EPC back toward BOT and monetisation2025-2028
NHAI leans on TOT bundles and InvITs to recycle capital; revised BOT concession terms revive private toll risk-taking (estimate).
estimate Informed estimate; no single source
- Expressway network completion2025-2027
Delhi–Mumbai Expressway: 756 km open by April 2025, further 63.5 km (Kim–Ena) opened June 2026.
- US IIJA final year & reauthorisation2026-2031
IIJA provided USD 343bn for roads, highways, bridges and safety; FY2026 is the last year of its authorisations, so reauthorisation drives 2027+ pipelines. HTF needed USD 275bn of general-fund transfers 2008-2023.
- US highway construction still growing2026-2027
Highway & street construction spending reached USD 152bn SAAR in Aug 2026 (+4.6% y/y), but construction-materials PPI rose 10.1% y/y.
- EU TEN-T deadlines2024-2050
Revised TEN-T regulation: core network 2030, extended core 2040, comprehensive 2050; nine European Transport Corridors.
- Oil shock raises bitumen costs2026-2027
Brent spiked above USD 100/bbl from March 2026 (Gulf war), lifting bitumen and diesel costs for pavement works.
Research findings
- Reference class: roads
Flyvbjerg et al. (2026): roads have mean real cost overrun of 15% (N=2,086) with 10% of projects >50%; bridges 26% (N=61); tunnels 36% (N=69).
- Classic transport overrun study
Roads average +20.4% cost escalation vs +44.7% for rail and +33.8% for fixed links (258 projects, 20 nations).
- Traffic forecast accuracy
For half of road projects actual traffic deviates by more than ±20% from forecast; forecasts did not improve over 30 years.
- MoSPI India roads cost performance
Q1 FY26: 1,023 MoRTH projects, original INR 7.93 lakh cr vs anticipated INR 8.37 lakh cr (+5.5%); Mar 2026 flash: INR 10.35 → 10.61 lakh cr (+2.5%).
- MoSPI India roads schedule performance (Capibud parse)
572 road projects parsed: 63% delayed, median delay 11 months against a 34-month median plan; only 20% show cost overrun — i.e. Indian road risk is schedule, not cost.
- Bharatmala programme scale
83,677 km of committed highways estimated at INR 10.63 lakh cr (~USD 110bn) as of March 2022; phase-I 34,800 km.
KPIs, regions and who builds
KPIs the pack tracks
Regional notes
| India | MoRTH/NHAI dominate; models EPC (~50-60% of awards), HAM (~30-40%), BOT revival (estimate). PAIMANA Mar 2026: 1,120 projects, INR 10.35 lakh cr original, INR 10.61 lakh cr revised (+2.5%). Capibud parse: 63% of road projects delayed (median 11 months). Land, forest and utility shifting dominate the critical path; arbitration claims and contractor stress are recurring. |
|---|---|
| United States | IIJA (Nov 2021) added USD 110bn new money for roads/bridges within USD 343bn for roads, highways, bridges and safety; FY2026 is the final authorisation year; HTF insolvency risk; state DOT design-bid-build and P3 managed lanes (Ferrovial, Transurban). |
| Europe | TEN-T core network due 2030 with cross-border bottlenecks; CEF co-funding; mature concession markets (France, Spain, Italy) with tariff-indexation disputes; construction cost indices via Eurostat. |
| Middle East | Gulf giga-projects (Saudi) scaled back in 2025-26 (estimate); 2026 war disrupted regional logistics. |
Who builds and operates
Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.
Operators · 12
- National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) Authority/owner; MoRTH portfolio of 1,120 central projects (INR 10.35 lakh cr original) in PAIMANA Mar 2026.
- IRB Infrastructure / IRB InvIT Largest private BOT/TOT toll operator in India.
- Cube Highways I Squared-backed toll-road platform & InvIT.
- National Highways Infra Trust (NHAI InvIT) NHAI monetisation vehicle.
- Adani Road Transport / Ashoka Buildcon / PNC (HAM portfolios) HAM developers.
- Ferrovial / Cintra 407 ETR, US managed lanes (I-66, LBJ, NTE).
- Transurban Virginia/Maryland express lanes; Toronto/Australia.
- Vinci Highways / Vinci Autoroutes French concessions; global PPPs.
- Abertis (Mundys/ACS) European and LatAm toll roads.
- Macquarie / Brookfield road platforms Indian and US toll assets.
- State DOTs (TxDOT, Caltrans, FDOT) Owners of IIJA formula-funded programmes.
- Autobahn GmbH / ANAS / national road agencies TEN-T core corridor owners.
Suppliers · 11
- Larsen & Toubro Expressways, sea links (MTHL).
- Dilip Buildcon / G R Infra / KNR / HG Infra / PNC Mid-cap road EPC and HAM contractors.
- Afcons / Megha Engineering (MEIL) Tunnels and bridges (Zojila, Atal tunnel).
- Kiewit / Granite / Sterling US highway contractors.
- Strabag / Skanska / Vinci Construction / Colas European road builders.
- AECOM / Jacobs / WSP / Egis Design, PMC, independent engineer.
- Wirtgen (John Deere) / Caterpillar / Volvo CE / Ammann Pavers, milling machines, rollers.
- Indian Oil / HPCL / BPCL Bitumen (VG-30/40, CRMB).
- UltraTech / Ambuja (cement), Vulcan / Martin Marietta (aggregates) Pavement and structures.
- Kapsch TrafficCom / IHMCL (FASTag) / Conduent Tolling, ATMS; India moving to ANPR/GNSS tolling (estimate).
- Tata Steel / JSW (rebar) Reinforcement steel.
Customers · 5
- Freight trucking & logistics fleets ~60%+ of toll revenue on many NH corridors (estimate).
- Passenger vehicle users Expressway time savings.
- Industrial corridors & logistics parks Bharatmala logistics parks, PM Gati Shakti.
- Ports & airports (connectivity) Port connectivity under Sagarmala; airport access roads (e.g., Noida airport corridor).
- Governments (annuity payers) NHAI annuity obligations; US state DOTs.
Project template
Work breakdown
Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.
| ID | Step & timing | Share | O / ML / P |
|---|---|---|---|
| R100 | Feasibility, traffic study & DPR / alignmentDevelop · factors: Labour | 10% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.4 |
| R200 | Land acquisition (3A/3D notifications, compensation)Develop · factors: Policy | 25% | 0.9 / 1 / 2.2 |
| R300 | Environmental, forest & wildlife clearancesDevelop · factors: Policy | 12% | 0.9 / 1 / 2 |
| R400 | Bid, award, concession signing & financial closure (HAM/BOT)Procure · factors: Interest rates, Policy | 8% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.5 |
| R500 | Detailed design & proof checkingEngineer · EPC · factors: Labour | 8% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.3 |
| R600 | Utility shifting & site clearanceConstruct · EPC · factors: Policy, Electrical equipment | 10% | 0.9 / 1 / 2 |
| R700 | Earthwork, embankment & subgradeConstruct · EPC · factors: Oil, Construction materials, Labour | 30% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.5 |
| R800 | Structures: major/minor bridges, ROBs, flyovers, underpassesConstruct · EPC · factors: Steel, Construction materials, Labour | 40% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.6 |
| R900 | Pavement: GSB, WMM, DBM/BC or PQCConstruct · EPC · factors: Oil, Construction materials | 30% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.4 |
| R1000 | Drainage, protection works & road furnitureConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Steel | 12% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.3 |
| R1100 | Toll plazas, ATMS/ITS & electricalConstruct · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Copper | 8% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.4 |
| R1200 | Provisional completion, safety audit & CODCommission · factors: Policy | 5% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.6 |
| R1300 | Punch-list closure & defect liability startCommission · EPC · factors: Labour | 6% | 0.9 / 1 / 1.5 |
Cost breakdown
Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).
Financial template
Revenue model
EPC: milestone payments from authority. HAM: 40% construction support + 15-year semi-annual annuities with interest and O&M payments. BOT/TOT: toll revenue (WPI-indexed) over 15-30-year concessions; InvIT distributions.
Margin driver
Equity IRR (HAM/BOT)
Ramp-up
1 year to steady state
How Capibud uses this pack
A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a roads & highways decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 13 parameters, 11 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.
Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.
Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are policy, labour, construction materials and interest rates. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.
The 16 price feeds and 21 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.
Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors
- Policy
- Labour
- Construction materials
- Interest rates
- Steel
- Oil
- Electrical equipment
Capex tied to a shared factor
- Construction materials34.7%
- Oil15.8%
- Policy10.8%
- Steel10.2%
- Electrical equipment3.3%
- Labour2.7%
- Interest rates2.4%
Sources
Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.
- paimana-proj.mospi.gov.inhttps://paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in/Content/ArchiveReport/flash/2025-26/FlashReport_March_2026.pdf
- paimana-proj.mospi.gov.inhttps://paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in/Content/ArchiveReport/quarterly/2025-26/QPISR_QR_1st_2025-26.pdf
- paimana-proj.mospi.gov.inhttps://paimana-proj.mospi.gov.in/
- arxiv.orghttps://arxiv.org/abs/2606.15757
- arxiv.orghttps://arxiv.org/abs/1303.6604
- arxiv.orghttps://arxiv.org/abs/1303.6654
- fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLHWYCONS
- fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPUSI012011
- fred.stlouisfed.orghttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructure_Investment_and_Jobs_Act
- transport.ec.europa.euhttps://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-themes/infrastructure-and-investment/trans-european-transport-network-ten-t_en
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatmala
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delhi–Mumbai_Expressway
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_Trust_Fund
- en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Highways_Authority_of_India
Cited without a link
- Flyvbjerg, Holm & Buhl 2002 (JAPA)
- MoSPI infrastructure monitoring (Q1 FY26)
Bring us one real decision in roads & highways.
We start it from the Roads & highways pack v1.0.0: 13 parameters, 11 swing factors and the 13-step project template, pinned to your decision.