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Industry brief · Life sciences, consumer & services

Pharmaceuticals & biotechAPI, formulations, biologics, CDMO, R&D pipeline

Covers small-molecule API (bulk drug) plants, oral-solid and sterile formulation plants, biologics drug-substance/drug-product facilities and contract development & manufacturing (CDMO). It also treats the R&D pipeline as a capital portfolio: each asset is a staged option with phase transition probabilities, phase costs and durations. India is the volume generics/API hub (USD 30.5bn exports FY25) but still imports 65-86% of key APIs/KSMs from China; the US is in a reshoring capex wave (>USD 300-500bn pledged) driven by Section 232 tariff threats; the EU leads in biologics CDMO (Lonza, Sartorius suppliers).

Start a Decision Sprint See the parameters
10 swing factors · circle size = months of delay0%20%40%60%80%25%50%100%150%Probability →Cost impact →Clinical trial failure (Phase II/III): 60% likely, 100% cost impact, 24 monthsFDA inspection failure (OAI / warning letter / import alert): 15% likely, 10% cost impact, 18 monthsFunding window closure for biotech: 30% likely, 0% cost impact, 12 monthsLong-lead equipment delays (isolators, lyophilisers, bioreactors, vials): 35% likely, 6% cost impact, 6 monthsValidation / qualification overrun: 40% likely, 5% cost impact, 5 monthsChinese API/KSM supply disruption or price spike: 25% likely, 5% cost impact, 3 monthsSkilled labour shortage (QA/QC, aseptic operators): 35% likely, 3% cost impact, 3 monthsConstruction cost escalation for cleanroom builds: 30% likely, 7% cost impact, 2 monthsUS tariff / MFN pricing policy shock: 40% likely, 8% cost impact, 0 monthsCDMO capacity glut / contract loss: 25% likely, 15% cost impact, 0 monthsClinical trial failureCDMO capacity glutUS tariff

Pack v1.0.0 · updated 5 Oct 2026 · 17 cited sources · 28 parameters · 10 swing factors · 1 source conflict shown side by side.

At a glance

8,000Capex intensity · USD per litre biologics capacityrange 3,000–25,000 · sourced
30Construction time · monthsrange 18–60 · estimate
15%Mean cost overrunrange 5%–40% · estimate
20%Mean schedule overrunrange 5%–60% · estimate

Pack defaults with their low–high range. Overruns are sector means as a share of the original budget or schedule. All parameters and sources

Sub-industries

Capex intensity ranges by configuration. The unit changes with the asset, so compare within a row, not across rows.

Sub-industryCapex intensityNotes
API / bulk drug & KSM plantsMultipurpose batch chemistry blocks (reactors, centrifuges, dryers), solvent recovery, effluent treatment (ZLD in India).150,000–450,000USD per m3 reactor volumeestimate; India multipurpose API block of 100-300 m3 reactor volume typically INR 150-500 cr. PLI bulk drugs: INR 4,763 cr invested to date. Fermentation KSMs (penicillin G, 7-ACA) are capex-heavy and China-dominated.
Oral solid dose formulationsGranulation, compression, coating, packaging lines; US-FDA/EU-GMP compliant.8,000,000–25MUSD per billion units/yrestimate; India greenfield OSD plants of 5-10bn units cost USD 60-150M; US equivalent 2-3x.
Sterile injectables / fill-finish (vials, PFS, cartridges)Aseptic filling with isolators/RABS, lyophilisers, autoinjector assembly (GLP-1 driven demand).2,000,000–8,000,000USD per million units/yrestimate; GLP-1 pen/cartridge capacity is the scarcest asset class 2024-2027; Lilly, Novo/Catalent, Thermo and Indian CDMOs expanding.
Biologics drug substance (mAbs, biosimilars)Mammalian cell culture (stainless or single-use bioreactors), downstream purification, QC labs.3,000–25,000USD per litre bioreactor capacityIndia: Aurobindo TheraNym INR 1,000 cr for 25,000 L (~USD 4,800/L). US/EU large-scale stainless plants USD 10,000-25,000/L (estimate, e.g. Fujifilm Holly Springs).
CDMO / CRDMO (small molecule, biologics, ADC, peptides)Contract development and manufacturing for innovators; capacity built ahead of contracts.3,000–25,000USD per m3 or per litreIndia CDMO USD 3-3.5bn today, projected USD 22-25bn by 2035; BIOSECURE Act pushes work away from Chinese CDMOs (WuXi).
VaccinesAntigen manufacturing (viral, bacterial, mRNA), formulation and fill-finish.300,000–2,000,000USD per million doses/yrestimate; Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech operate world-scale capacity; India vaccine exports USD 1.04bn FY25.
R&D pipeline (portfolio of clinical assets)Staged investment: discovery -> preclinical -> Ph1 -> Ph2 -> Ph3 -> filing -> launch; each stage an option with attrition.985M–2.67bnUSD per approved asset (capitalised)Wouters 2020 median USD 985M (capitalised); Deloitte 2025 average USD 2.671bn per asset for top-20 pharma.

Value chain

Inputs

  • key starting materials (KSMs)
  • intermediates
  • solvents (methanol, acetone, DCM)
  • cell culture media & resins (Protein A)
  • single-use bags/filters
  • glass vials & prefilled syringes
  • excipients
  • utilities (steam, WFI, chilled water, power)
  • skilled QA/QC labour
  • clinical trial services (CROs)

Process

  • discovery & preclinical
  • clinical development Ph1-Ph3
  • regulatory filing (NDA/BLA/ANDA/MAA)
  • API synthesis / fermentation
  • cell culture & purification
  • formulation
  • aseptic fill-finish
  • packaging & serialisation
  • QC release
  • cold-chain distribution

Outputs

  • branded innovator drugs
  • generics
  • biosimilars
  • APIs for export
  • vaccines
  • CDMO services revenue
  • licensing / milestone income

Parameters

28 parameters: 16 sourced, 12 informed estimates. The bar shows the low–high range with the default marked; estimates are labelled and never presented as observed data.

ParameterDefault & rangeEvidenceSource
Capex intensityIndia ~USD 4,800/L (Aurobindo); US/EU large plants up to USD 25,000/L (estimate)8,000 USD per litre biologics capacityrange 3,000–25,000sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026sahi.com
Construction monthsIndia API/OSD 18-30 months; US biologics/sterile 36-60 months incl. qualification30 monthsrange 18–60estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Cost overrun meanGMP facility overruns driven by validation, equipment lead times (isolators, lyophilisers) and design changes15%range 5%–40%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Schedule overrun meanincludes regulatory inspection/PAI timing; a failed PAI adds 6-18 months20%range 5%–60%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Asset life (years)25 yearsrange 15–40estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
WACCUS large pharma ~7-8%; Indian pharma 11-12%; clinical-stage biotech 12-20%9.5%range 7%–13%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Typical IRR sources disagreeDeloitte forecast R&D IRR 7.0% (2025) vs 5.9% (2024); 2.9% excluding GLP-1s. Manufacturing capex IRRs 15-25% (estimate)7%range 2.9%–15%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026deloitte.com
Utilization70%range 40%–90%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Opex % of revenue72%range 60%–85%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
EBITDA marginIndian generics 20-28%; CDMO 25-35%; big pharma 30-40%25%range 15%–40%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Probability phase1 to phase2BIO/Informa/QLS 2011-2020; 2006-2015 cohort was 63%52%range 45%–66%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026go.bio.org
Probability phase2 to phase32006-2015 cohort 30.7% (https://cdn.vanderbilt.edu/t2-main/medschool-prd/wp-content/uploads/sites/106/2025/05/BiomedtrackerPDF.pdf)28.9%range 24%–40%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026go.bio.org
Probability phase3 to filing57.8%range 50%–70%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026go.bio.org
Probability filing to approval90.6%range 85%–95%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026go.bio.org
LoA from phase1range spans oncology (~5%) to haematology (~26%) from the 2006-2015 Biomedtracker study; biomarker-selected programs ~26%7.9%range 5.1%–26.1%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026go.bio.org
Probability preclinical to phase1industry rule of thumb (Paul et al. 2010 used 69%)60%range 40%–70%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Duration phase1 (years)2.3 yearsrange 1.5–3sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026go.bio.org
Duration phase2 (years)3.6 yearsrange 2.5–4.5sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026go.bio.org
Duration phase3 (years)3.3 yearsrange 2.5–4.5sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026go.bio.org
Duration filing (years)1.3 yearsrange 0.8–2sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026go.bio.org
Cost phase1 per asset (USD)(out-of-pocket per asset entering phase, 2025$)DiMasi 2016: USD 25.3M (2013$) inflated ~1.4x to 2025$ (estimate). Single US Ph1 study USD 1.4-6.6M (Sertkaya 2016)35M USDrange 5,000,000–60Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026doi.org
Cost phase2 per asset (USD)(out-of-pocket per asset entering phase, 2025$)DiMasi 2016: USD 58.6M (2013$); single Ph2 study USD 7-19.6M (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1740774515625964)80M USDrange 15M–150Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026doi.org
Cost phase3 per asset (USD)(out-of-pocket per asset entering phase, 2025$)DiMasi 2016: USD 255.4M (2013$); single Ph3 study USD 11.5-52.9M (Sertkaya 2016); CVOT/obesity outcomes trials >USD 1bn350M USDrange 50M–700Msourcedas of 5 Oct 2026doi.org
Cost preclinical per asset (USD)15M USDrange 5,000,000–40Mestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Cost per approved asset capitalised (USD)Deloitte top-20 average 2025; Wouters et al. JAMA 2020 median USD 985M (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762311)2.67bn USDrange 985M–2.67bnsourcedas of 5 Oct 2026deloitte.com
R&D discount rateDiMasi used 10.5% real cost of capital10.5%range 8%–15%estimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Peak sales median (USD)Deloitte reports average forecast peak sales per asset ~USD 500M ex-GLP1; heavily skewed400M USD/yrrange 100M–5bnestimateas of 5 Oct 2026Informed estimate; no single source
Ind generics US share of exports34%range 30%–38%sourcedas of 5 Oct 2026qatar-tribune.com

Where sources disagree

Kept side by side, not averaged. The pack default is in the table above.

Typical IRR

R&D IRR series differ by year and by whether GLP-1 products are included.

7%2025 forecastDeloitte pharma R&D returns (2025) · 2025
5.9%2024Deloitte pharma R&D returns (2024) · 2024
2.9%excluding GLP-1sDeloitte pharma R&D returns (2025) · 2025

What moves value

Sorted by expected cost (probability × cost impact). Impacts are typical values for the sector; each one is driven by the shared factors listed, which is how one shock reaches several projects at once.

Swing factorProbabilityCost impactSchedule
Clinical trial failure (Phase II/III)Technical Shared factors: Policy 0.2 · Interest rates 0.2Watch: interim analysis delays; enrolment slippage; competitor readouts
60%
100%
24 mo
CDMO capacity glut / contract lossMarket Shared factors: Interest rates 0.5 · Policy 0.5Watch: biotech funding (XBI); pipeline cancellations; CDMO utilisation commentary
25%
15%
0 mo
US tariff / MFN pricing policy shockRegulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.9 · Interest rates 0.1Watch: Section 232 announcements; MFN executive orders; IRA negotiation list
40%
8%
0 mo
Construction cost escalation for cleanroom buildsCommodity Shared factors: Steel 0.3 · Construction materials 0.3 · Copper 0.2 · Labour 0.2Watch: PPI construction inputs; HVAC equipment lead times
30%
7%
2 mo
Long-lead equipment delays (isolators, lyophilisers, bioreactors, vials)Supply chain Shared factors: Electrical equipment 0.5 · Steel 0.3 · Labour 0.2Watch: OEM backlog commentary; stainless steel 316L prices; GLP-1 fill-finish order books
35%
6%
6 mo
Validation / qualification overrunTechnical Shared factors: Labour 0.7 · Policy 0.3Watch: IQ/OQ/PQ deviation counts; QA headcount gaps
40%
5%
5 mo
FDA inspection failure (OAI / warning letter / import alert)Regulatory Shared factors: Policy 0.6 · Labour 0.4Watch: Form 483 observations; data integrity findings; remediation consultant hiring
15%
10%
18 mo
Chinese API/KSM supply disruption or price spikeSupply chain Shared factors: Policy 0.5 · Oil 0.3 · Gas 0.2Watch: China export controls; KSM price index; Chinese environmental shutdowns
25%
5%
3 mo
Skilled labour shortage (QA/QC, aseptic operators)Labour Shared factors: Labour 1Watch: wage inflation pharma hubs; attrition rates
35%
3%
3 mo
Funding window closure for biotechFinancing Shared factors: Interest rates 0.9 · Policy 0.1Watch: XBI drawdown; IPO count; follow-on pricing discounts
30%
0%
12 mo

Market signals

What moves the case

Key variables with their typical range and what they hit in the model.

VariableTypical rangeAffects
US generic price erosionIndian generic exporters derive ~1/3 of exports from US; each 1pt extra erosion cuts US generic EBITDA ~2-3pt (estimate).3%–12%Revenue, EBITDA margin
Chinese API/KSM import price indexIndia imports USD 7.4bn APIs; China share 65-86% by category. A 20% KSM price spike can cut generic formulation margins by 3-5pt (estimate).80–140indexOpex, Supply risk
Phase II -> III transition probabilityPhase II is the largest attrition point (28.9% BIO 2011-2020); biomarker-selected programs roughly triple LOA.15%–45%Pipeline NPV
US PPI pharmaceutical preparationsProxy for US net pricing pressure (MFN pricing, IRA negotiation).300–420indexRevenue
US tariff on imported branded/patented pharma100% tariff announced Sept 2025 for branded imports, exemption for companies building US plants; generics largely excluded so far. Drives US onshoring capex.0%–100%Revenue, Capex location
USD/INR exchange rateIndian exporters gain ~25-40bp EBITDA margin per 1% INR depreciation (estimate).80–92INR per USDRevenue, EBITDA margin
Share of FDA inspections with OAI/warning letters (India sites)An OAI/import alert on a key site defers approvals 12-36 months and can idle 10-30% of revenue.5%–20%Schedule, Revenue
Biologics/CDMO capacity utilisationCDMO plants break even at ~50-60% utilisation; idle capacity after COVID-era overbuild hit Catalent/Lonza margins.40%–90%Revenue, IRR
Show 3 more variables
VariableTypical rangeAffects
GLP-1 / incretin demand growthGLP-1s are 25% of forecast top-20 pipeline sales (Deloitte 2025); semaglutide patent expiry in India/Canada/Brazil 2026 opens generic peptide capex.15%–50%Revenue, Capex demand
Clinical trial cost per patient inflationAverage cost per asset rose from USD 2.23bn (2024) to 2.67bn (2025) per Deloitte.3%–10%R&D cost
Policy / long rates (cost of capital for biotech)Biotech XBI index and IPO window are highly rate sensitive.3–7percentWACC, Funding availability

Price feeds (7)

SeriesSource / idUnitFrequency
US PPI: Pharmaceutical preparation manufacturingPCU325412325412FREDindexmonthly
US PPI: Medicinal and botanical manufacturing (API proxy)PCU325411325411FREDindexmonthly
USD/INR exchange rateDEXINUSFREDINR per USDdaily
US 10-year Treasury yieldDGS10FREDpercentdaily
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (funding window proxy)XBIYahooUSDdaily
Nifty Pharma index^CNXPHARMAYahooindexdaily
Brent crude (solvent/petrochemical input proxy)DCOILBRENTEUFREDUSD/bbldaily

Listed tickers (20)

Market context only: these prices tend to react first when a driver moves. Named for context; no affiliation.

Operators · 16

  • SUNPHARMA.NS Sun Pharmaceutical Industries NSE · IN
  • DRREDDY.NS Dr. Reddy's Laboratories NSE · IN
  • CIPLA.NS Cipla NSE · IN
  • DIVISLAB.NS Divi's Laboratories NSE · IN
  • AUROPHARMA.NS Aurobindo Pharma NSE · IN
  • BIOCON.NS Biocon NSE · IN
  • SYNGENE.NS Syngene International NSE · IN
  • LAURUSLABS.NS Laurus Labs NSE · IN
  • ZYDUSLIFE.NS Zydus Lifesciences NSE · IN
  • LLY Eli Lilly NYSE · US
  • JNJ Johnson & Johnson NYSE · US
  • PFE Pfizer NYSE · US
  • NOVO-B.CO Novo Nordisk Nasdaq Copenhagen · EU
  • ROG.SW Roche Holding SIX · EU
  • AZN.L AstraZeneca LSE · EU
  • LONN.SW Lonza Group SIX · EU

Suppliers · 3

  • TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific NYSE · US
  • DHR Danaher (Cytiva) NYSE · US
  • SRT3.DE Sartorius XETRA · EU

Proxys · 1

  • XBI SPDR S&P Biotech ETF NYSE Arca · US

KPIs, regions and who builds

KPIs the pack tracks

  • Pipeline risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV)
  • Likelihood of approval by asset
  • R&D spend as % of revenue
  • Forecast R&D IRR
  • ANDA/NDA approvals per year
  • Capacity utilisation (litres / units)
  • Right-first-time batch rate
  • FDA inspection outcomes (NAI/VAI/OAI)
  • EBITDA margin
  • Cost per gram API / per gram mAb
  • Days of KSM inventory from China
  • On-time-in-full (OTIF) supply

Regional notes

IndiaLargest generics exporter (USD 30.5bn FY25), ~650+ US-FDA approved sites; capex 40-60% cheaper than US; key risks are FDA compliance and China KSM dependence. PLI (bulk drugs, pharma), bulk drug parks, and Jan 2026 policy on biologics/biosimilars support capex. Hubs: Hyderabad, Ahmedabad/Vadodara, Visakhapatnam, Baddi, Bengaluru (biologics).
United StatesReshoring wave under Section 232 threat; IRA price negotiation and MFN pricing compress returns; strong biotech VC but funding window rate-sensitive; construction costs and skilled labour are key constraints (NC Research Triangle, Indiana, Texas hubs).
EuropeBiologics/CDMO depth (Switzerland, Ireland, Denmark, Germany); EU pharma legislation reform shortens regulatory data protection; Critical Medicines Act to onshore essential APIs; energy costs a disadvantage.
Middle EastSaudi/UAE localisation programmes (NUPCO local content), emerging vaccine/insulin plants.

Who builds and operates

Named for context; no affiliation. These are public market participants drawn from the research behind the pack. They are not Capibud clients or partners.

Operators · 14

  • Sun Pharmaceutical Mumbai · INIndia's largest pharma; specialty portfolio (Ilumya, Leqselvi); USD 5.8bn+ revenue.
  • Dr. Reddy's Hyderabad · INGenerics, APIs, biosimilars; semaglutide generic launches in 2026 markets where patent lapses.
  • Cipla Mumbai · INRespiratory, US generics, peptides; capex in complex generics.
  • Divi's Laboratories Hyderabad · INTop global API/custom synthesis; large Kakinada greenfield; peptide/GLP-1 building blocks.
  • Aurobindo Pharma Hyderabad · INTheraNym biologics CDMO (INR 1,000 cr, 25,000 L); Pen-G PLI fermentation plant.
  • Biocon / Biocon Biologics Bengaluru · INBiosimilars (insulins, mAbs); Viatris biosimilars integration.
  • Syngene International Bengaluru · INCRDMO; acquired US biologics site (Baltimore) from Emergent in 2025 to serve US customers.
  • Eli Lilly Indianapolis · USUSD 27bn for four new US plants (Feb 2025); >USD 50bn US capex since 2020; GLP-1 leader.
  • Johnson & Johnson New Brunswick NJ · USUSD 55bn US manufacturing/R&D pledge over four years (2025).
  • Novo Nordisk / Novo Holdings (Catalent) Bagsvaerd · EUUSD 16.5bn Catalent take-private (2024) for fill-finish capacity; Kalundborg mega-expansion.
  • Lonza Basel · EULargest biologics CDMO in EU; acquired Genentech Vacaville site (2024).
  • Samsung Biologics Incheon · APACLargest biologics CDMO by litres (>780,000 L incl. Plant 5).
  • Fujifilm Diosynth Tokyo / Holly Springs NC · USHolly Springs large-scale cell culture campus (multi-billion USD).
  • Serum Institute of India Pune · INLargest vaccine maker by doses.

Suppliers · 13

  • Thermo Fisher Scientific OEM · USSingle-use bioprocess, CDMO (Patheon), lab equipment.
  • Cytiva (Danaher) OEM · USBioreactors, chromatography resins, FlexFactory modular plants.
  • Sartorius OEM · EUSingle-use bioreactors, filtration.
  • Merck KGaA (MilliporeSigma) Materials · EUMedia, filters, process chemicals.
  • GEA Group OEM · EULyophilisers, tablet presses, centrifuges.
  • Syntegon (ex-Bosch Packaging) OEM · EUAseptic fill-finish and isolators.
  • IMA Group OEM · EUFill-finish, OSD processing.
  • ACG Group OEM · INCapsules, films, OSD equipment.
  • SCHOTT Pharma / Gerresheimer / Stevanato Materials · EUGlass vials, PFS, cartridges — GLP-1 bottleneck.
  • Exyte / Jacobs / Fluor / IPS EPC · USPharma EPCM and cleanroom delivery.
  • Kirloskar / Thermax / Praj Hipurity EPC · INUtilities, WFI/pure water and process systems in India.
  • IQVIA / ICON / Syneos Services · USCROs executing clinical phases.
  • Veeva / Dassault Medidata Software · USClinical and quality systems.

Customers · 6

  • US wholesalers / PBMs (McKesson, Cencora, Cardinal) distributionConsolidated buyers drive generic price erosion.
  • Hospitals & health systems institutionalInjectables and biologics buyers.
  • Indian domestic retail pharmacy (IPM) retailIndian pharma market ~USD 25bn+, branded generics.
  • Innovator pharma/biotech CDMO clientsOutsourcing post-BIOSECURE shift from China.
  • Governments / UNICEF / Gavi tendersVaccines and essential medicines.
  • EU payers / NHS reimbursementTender-based biosimilar uptake.

Project template

Work breakdown

Share of total duration per step; steps overlap where predecessors allow, as the bars show. O / ML / P are optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic multipliers on each step's duration; the hatched tail is the pessimistic case.

IDStep & timingShareO / ML / P
A100Site selection, regulatory strategy, URS & concept designDevelop · factors: Policy8%0.85 / 1 / 1.4
A200Environmental clearance / consent to establish (India) or permits (US/EU)Develop · factors: Policy8%0.8 / 1 / 1.8
A300Basic & detailed engineering (process, HVAC, cleanroom, utilities)Engineer · EPC · factors: Labour12%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
A400Long-lead procurement (reactors, bioreactors, isolators, lyophilisers, WFI)Procure · OEM · factors: Electrical equipment, Steel18%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
A500Civil & structural, building shellConstruct · EPC · factors: Construction materials, Steel, Labour14%0.9 / 1 / 1.35
A600Cleanroom, HVAC & clean utilities installationConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Copper, Electrical equipment12%0.9 / 1 / 1.4
A700Process equipment installation & pipingConstruct · EPC · factors: Labour, Steel10%0.9 / 1 / 1.3
A800Commissioning & qualification (IQ/OQ)Commission · factors: Labour7%0.9 / 1 / 1.5
A900Process validation (PQ/PPQ), engineering batchesCommission · factors: Labour, Policy6%0.9 / 1 / 1.6
A950Regulatory filing, pre-approval inspection & commercial releaseCommission · factors: Policy5%0.8 / 1 / 2.5

Cost breakdown

Share of capex by line, with the commodity exposure of each line (the share of that line that moves with the commodity).

  • Process equipment (reactors, bioreactors, fill lines)30%
    Equipment
    • Steel 50%
    • Electrical equipment 30%
  • Cleanroom, HVAC & clean utilities (WFI, clean steam)18%
    Equipment
    • Steel 30%
    • Electrical equipment 30%
    • Copper 20%
  • Civil, structural & architectural15%
    Construction
    • Construction materials 60%
    • Steel 30%
  • Installation, piping, electrical & automation13%
    Labour
    • Copper 30%
    • Steel 20%
  • Engineering & EPCM10%
    Engineering
  • C&Q, validation, regulatory8%
    Commissioning
  • Owner's costs, land, permits, contingency6%
    Indirects

Financial template

Revenue model

Product sales (units x net price) for generics/brands; take-or-pay or per-batch fees for CDMO; for R&D assets, risk-adjusted peak sales x probability of launch with milestone/licensing options.

Margin driver

US generic price erosion

Ramp-up

3 years to steady state

How Capibud uses this pack

A pack is a starting position, not a forecast. When a pharmaceuticals & biotech decision opens in Capibud, pack v1.0.0 is copied in and pinned to that decision. The 28 parameters, 10 swing factors and templates the committee saw stay attached to the decision record, even after the pack is next refreshed.

Parameter ranges and WBS durations seed the P50, P80 and P90 for capex, schedule and value. Your own estimates, vendor quotes and actuals replace pack defaults line by line, and the record shows which numbers are still defaults.

Each swing factor is wired to shared factors; here the heaviest are policy, interest rates, labour and electrical equipment. A move in one factor hits every exposed project in the same scenario, which is how the capital committee sees concentration across a book rather than project by project.

The 7 price feeds and 20 listed tickers feed the brain, which watches for drivers moving outside their pack range and drafts the change for a person to review.

Shared factors behind this pack's swing factors

  • Policy
  • Interest rates
  • Labour
  • Electrical equipment
  • Steel
  • Construction materials
  • Oil
Relative weight: probability × impact × driver weight, summed over swing factors.

Capex tied to a shared factor

  • Steel27.5%
  • Electrical equipment14.4%
  • Construction materials9%
  • Copper7.5%
Share of total capex, from the cost breakdown and its commodity exposures.

Sources

Every link opens the original source in a new tab. Values marked as estimates are informed estimates by the Capibud research team.

  1. go.bio.orghttps://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf
  2. cdn.vanderbilt.eduhttps://cdn.vanderbilt.edu/t2-main/medschool-prd/wp-content/uploads/sites/106/2025/05/BiomedtrackerPDF.pdf
  3. journals.sagepub.comhttps://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1740774515625964
  4. ncbi.nlm.nih.govhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK611884/
  5. doi.orghttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.01.012
  6. jamanetwork.comhttps://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762311
  7. deloitte.comhttps://www.deloitte.com/content/dam/assets-shared/docs/industries/life-sciences-health-care/2025/deloitte-measuring-return-from-pharmaceutical-innovation-2025.pdf
  8. pharmtech.comhttps://www.pharmtech.com/view/the-year-of-the-tariff-pharmaceutical-supply-chain-reimagined-in-2025
  9. kenan-flagler.unc.eduhttps://www.kenan-flagler.unc.edu/perspectives/us-pharmaceutical-facilities-under-construction-and-tariff-implications/
  10. pharmamanufacturing.comhttps://pharmamanufacturing.com/industry-news/news/55270950/eli-lilly-to-invest-27b-in-us-drug-manufacturing-sites-as-trump-threatens-tariffs-on-pharmaceuticals
  11. qatar-tribune.comhttps://qatar-tribune.com/article/173050/business/indias-pharma-exports-cross-30-bn-in-fy25
  12. policycircle.orghttps://www.policycircle.org/industry/apis-import-depencence-on-china/
  13. indrastra.comhttps://www.indrastra.com/2026/06/indias-api-trap-incremental-pli-gains.html
  14. bioprocessintl.comhttps://www.bioprocessintl.com/global-markets/home-and-us-capex-places-india-on-brink-of-biocdmo-breakthrough
  15. sahi.comhttps://www.sahi.com/news/aurobindo-pharma-opens-1-000-cr-theranym-plant-to-scale-biologics-cdmo-by-25-000l-capacity-1839-PE1_COR
  16. indianpharmapost.comhttps://www.indianpharmapost.com/biopharma/bharat-parenterals-doubles-savli-facility-capex-to-rs-300-crore-as-it-targets-global-biologics-cdmo-market-21364

Also cited in this brief

  1. deloitte.comhttps://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/about/press-room/weight-loss-drugs-boom-drives-pharma-r-and-d-returns.html

Cited without a link

  • Deloitte pharma R&D returns (2025)
  • Deloitte pharma R&D returns (2024)

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